A5059807792- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Air Quality and Health Impacts
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Calibration and Measurement Techniques
- Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Fire effects on ecosystems
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Global Energy and Sustainability Research
- Climate change and permafrost
- Air Quality Monitoring and Forecasting
- Advanced Computational Techniques and Applications
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Energy, Environment, Agriculture Analysis
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2016-2024
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
2002-2024
Princeton University
2006-2024
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
2016-2021
GenomeDesigns Lab (United States)
2020
Duke University
2002
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
2000
Korea Environment Institute
1997
Joint Research Centre
1994
Ollscoil na Gaillimhe – University of Galway
1992-1993
Abstract The formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled climate models developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) are described. were designed to simulate atmospheric oceanic variability from the diurnal time scale through multicentury change, given our computational constraints. In particular, an important goal was use same model for both experimental seasonal interannual forecasting study this has been achieved. Two versions described, called...
Abstract The physical climate formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled carbon–climate Earth System Models, ESM2M ESM2G, are described. These models demonstrate similar fidelity as the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s previous Climate Model version 2.1 (CM2.1) while incorporating explicit consistent carbon dynamics. differ exclusively in ocean component; uses Modular Ocean 4p1 with vertical pressure layers ESM2G Generalized Layer a bulk mixed layer interior...
Abstract The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) has developed a coupled general circulation model (CM3) for the atmosphere, oceans, land, and sea ice. goal of CM3 is to address emerging issues in climate change, including aerosol–cloud interactions, chemistry–climate coupling between troposphere stratosphere. also designed serve as physical system component earth models decadal prediction near-term future—for example, through improved simulations tropical land precipitation...
Global‐scale emissions of carbonaceous aerosol from fossil fuel usage have been calculated with a resolution 1° × 1°. Emission factors for black and organic carbon gathered the literature applied to domestic, transport, industrial combustion various types. In addition, allowance has made level development when calculating country. Emissions 185 countries industrial, transport sectors using database published by United Nations [1993]. Some inconsistencies were found small number regard...
Abstract The authors describe carbon system formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled carbon–climate Earth System Models (ESM), ESM2M ESM2G. These models demonstrate good climate fidelity as described in part I this study while incorporating explicit consistent dynamics. differ almost exclusively the physical ocean component; uses Modular Ocean Model version 4.1 with vertical pressure layers, whereas ESM2G generalized layer dynamics a bulk mixed interior isopycnal...
A global inventory has been constructed for emissions of black carbon from fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning. This implemented in a three‐dimensional transport model run 31 months. Results January July have compared with measurements taken the literature. The modeled values mass concentration compare within factor 2 continental regions some remote but are higher than measured other marine upper troposphere. disagreement can be explained by coarse grid scale (10° × 10°), simplicity...
Abstract We document the development and simulation characteristics of next generation modeling system for seasonal to decadal prediction projection at Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). SPEAR ( S eamless System P rediction EA rth R esearch) is built from component models recently developed GFDL—the AM4 atmosphere model, MOM6 ocean code, LM4 land SIS2 sea ice model. The are specifically designed with attributes needed a model time scales, including ability run large ensembles...
Owing to the limited length of observed tropical cyclone data and effects multidecadal internal variability, it has been a challenge detect trends in activity on global scale. However, there is distinct spatial pattern frequency occurrence scale since 1980, with substantial decreases southern Indian Ocean western North Pacific increases Atlantic central Pacific. Here, using suite high-resolution dynamical model experiments, we show that very unlikely be explained entirely by underlying...
Responses of tropical cyclones (TCs) to CO2 doubling are explored using coupled global climate models (GCMs) with increasingly refined atmospheric/land horizontal grids (~ 200 km, ~ 50 km and 25 km). The three exhibit similar changes in background fields thought regulate TC activity, such as relative sea surface temperature (SST), potential intensity, wind shear. However, frequency decreases substantially the model, while model shows no significant change. also has a substantial...
Abstract The current generation of coupled climate models run at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) as part Climate Change Science Program contains ocean components that differ in almost every respect from those contained previous generations GFDL models. This paper summarizes new physical features and examines simulations they produce. Of two model versions 2.1 (CM2.1) 2.0 (CM2.0), CM2.1 represents a major improvement over CM2.0 most oceanic examined, with strikingly lower...
Abstract. We update and evaluate the treatment of nitrate aerosols in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) atmospheric model (AM3). Accounting for radiative effects generally improves simulated aerosol optical depth, although concentrations at surface are biased high. This bias can be reduced by increasing deposition to account near-surface volatilization ammonium or neglecting heterogeneous production nitric acid inhibition N2O5 reactive uptake high concentrations. Globally,...
Three consecutive dry winters (2015-2017) in southwestern South Africa (SSA) resulted the Cape Town "Day Zero" drought early 2018. The contribution of anthropogenic global warming to this prolonged rainfall deficit has previously been evaluated through observations and climate models. However, model adequacy insufficient horizontal resolution make it difficult precisely quantify changing likelihood extreme droughts, given small regional scale. Here, we use a high-resolution large ensemble...
Abstract Compared to the Arctic, seasonal predictions of Antarctic sea ice have received relatively little attention. In this work, we utilize three coupled dynamical prediction systems developed at Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory assess skill and predictability ice. These systems, based on FLOR, SPEAR_LO, SPEAR_MED models, differ in their model components, initialization techniques, atmospheric resolution, biases. Using suites retrospective initialized spanning 1992–2018, investigate...
Abstract Precipitation extremes have a widespread impact on societies and ecosystems; it is therefore important to understand current future patterns of extreme precipitation. Here, set new global coupled climate models with varying atmospheric resolution has been used investigate the ability these reproduce observed precipitation changes in response increased CO2 concentrations. The was from 2° × grid cells (typical CMIP5 archive) 0.25° (tropical cyclone permitting). Analysis confined...
Abstract The next‐generation seasonal prediction system is built as part of the Seamless System for Prediction and EArth Research (SPEAR) at Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). SPEAR an effort to develop a seamless research across time scales. ensemble‐based ocean data assimilation (ODA) updated Modular Ocean Model Version 6 (MOM6), component SPEAR. initial conditions predictions, well state estimation, are produced by MOM6 ODA in...
Abstract The recent multi-year 2015–2019 drought after a multi-decadal drying trend over Central America raises the question of whether anthropogenic climate change (ACC) played role in exacerbating these events. While occurrence has been asserted to be associated with ACC, we lack an assessment natural vs contributions. Here, use five different large ensembles—including high-resolution ensembles (i.e., 0.5 ∘ horizontally)—to estimate contribution ACC probability event and trend. comparison...
Abstract Extreme precipitation is among the most destructive natural disasters. Simulating changes in regional extreme remains challenging, partially limited by climate models’ horizontal resolution. Here, we use an ensemble of high-resolution global model simulations to study September–November over Northeastern United States, where extremes have increased rapidly since mid-1990s. We show that a with 25 km resolution simulates much more realistic than comparable models 50 or 100 resolution,...
This paper sets out to show the potential use of remote sensing active vegetation fires for continental‐ global‐scale modeling biomass burning studies. It focuses on analysis seasonality African continent, as derived from NOAA‐AVHRR‐GAC‐5km satellite data. These data are ideally suited savanna fires, which constitute between 60 and 80% burnt in Africa. Monthly counts fire pixels, within 1° latitude × longitude grid cells, over continental Africa have been calculated November 1984 through...
Atmospheric distributions of carbonaceous aerosols are simulated using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory SKYHI general circulation model (GCM) (latitude‐longitude resolution ∼3° × 3.6°). A number systematic analyses conducted to investigate seasonal and interannual variability concentrations at specific locations sensitivity various physical parameters. Comparisons made with several observational data sets. At four sites (Mace Head, Mauna Loa, Sable Island, Bondville) monthly mean...
Abstract. Both climate forcing and sensitivity persist as stubborn uncertainties limiting the extent to which models can provide actionable scientific scenarios for change. A key, explicit control on cloud–aerosol interactions, largest uncertainty in forcing, is vertical velocity of cloud-scale updrafts. Model-based studies indicate that convective entrainment, closely related updraft speeds, an important sensitivity. Updraft velocities also drive many physical processes essential numerical...
Abstract This study proposes an integrated diagnostic framework based on atmospheric circulation regime spatial patterns and frequencies of occurrence to facilitate the identification model systematic errors across multiple time scales. To illustrate approach, three sets 32-yr-long simulations are analyzed for northeastern North America March–May season using Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s Low Ocean–Atmosphere Resolution (LOAR) Forecast-Oriented Ocean (FLOR) coupled models; main...
Abstract A subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction system was recently developed using the GFDL Seamless System for Prediction and Earth Research (SPEAR) global coupled model. Based on 20-yr hindcast results (2000–19), boreal wintertime (November–April) Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) skill is revealed to reach 30 days measured before anomaly correlation coefficient of real-time multivariate (RMM) index drops 0.5. However, when MJO partitioned into four distinct propagation patterns, range...
Abstract Using GFDL's new coupled model SPEAR, we have developed a decadal reanalysis/initialization system (DCIS) that does not use subsurface ocean observations. In DCIS, the winds and temperature in atmosphere, along with sea surface (SST), are restored to Under this approach component of experiences sequence heat momentum fluxes similar DCIS offers two initialization approaches, called A1 A2, which differ only atmospheric forcing from A1, winds/temperature toward JRA reanalysis; pressure...
Black carbon mass concentrations have been measured using an aethalometer at Mace Head on the west coast of Ireland almost continuous basis from February 1989 to June 1996. The purpose this paper is report monthly averaged black concentration site over 7 year period and examine influence air concentration. seasonal variation for clean marine continental masses also investigated.