Recently there has been a growing interest in the use of scenario-planning techniques and related procedures such as cognitive mapping basis for facilitating organizational learning strategic renewal. The overwhelming impression conveyed within popular management literature is that application these invariably leads to successful outcomes. To extent this not case, absence documented accounts instances where have failed may mislead would-be users into embarking on inappropriate courses...

This article evaluates the nine empirical studies that have been conducted on expert versus lay judgments of risk. Contrary to received wisdom, this study finds there is little evidence for propositions (1) experts judge risk differently from members public or (2) are more veridical in their assessments. Methodological weaknesses early research documented, and it shown results recent confounded by social demographic factors found correlate with Using a task-analysis taxonomy, template...

Scenario planning can be a useful and attractive tool in strategic management. In rapidly changing environment it avoid the pitfalls of more traditional methods. Moreover, provides means addressing uncertainty without recourse to use subjective probabilities, which suffer from serious cognitive biases. However, one underdeveloped element scenario is evaluation alternative strategies across range scenarios. If this carried out informally then inferior may selected, while those formal...

This paper reviews several of the current controversies in relative value judgemental and statistical forecasting methods. Where expert, informed forecasts are being used, a critical analysis evidence suggests that their quality is higher than many researchers have previously asserted, circumstances favourable to this identified. The issue interaction methods is, however, identified as more worthwhile line inquiry, research area reviewed, differentiating approaches aimed at synthesising both...

This study reviews research on cultural differences in "probabilistic thinking" and presents some intra- inter-cultural findings. Strong are shown to exist between people raised under Asian British cultures measures of this ability. These were found out-weigh any influence subculture, religion, occupation, arts/science orientation sex. Generally, Asians adopt a less finely differentiated view uncertainty both numerically verbally than did the sample. Numerical probabilities assessed by more...

Cultural differences in three aspects of "probabilistic thinking" were studied. The study re-presents part earlier work Hong Kong and Britain combines it with the results from a further Indonesia Malaysia. largest cultural difference was found between Asian British student groups. adopted more finely differentiated view uncertainty, both verbally numerically, than Asians response to uncertain situations. These are predictable neither on basis relative abundance probability expressions...

This paper shows that, in practice, the standard approach to scenario planning, known as 'intuitive logics', is overly focused on uncovering causes of one type, 'efficient cause'. We outline and apply a broader consideration causes, leading more sophisticated analysis uncertainty. Our focus incorporation Aristotle's nuanced causation. incorporate features our augmented development practical step-by-step methodology, draw out several implications for expert knowledge elicitation.

This study examines the distribution and calibration of probability assessments given to general knowledge questions question concerning future events. Two experiments revealed that: (1) People use certainty responses less frequently in response then‐future events than even when event are easier questions. (2) Indonesian students previously thought have little grasp probabilistic thinking, able give realistic for Cultural task influences on our findings discussed relation a procedural model...