A5066021210- Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Complex Systems and Decision Making
- Big Data and Business Intelligence
- Argentine historical studies
- Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
- Economic and Environmental Valuation
- Stock Market Forecasting Methods
- Multi-Criteria Decision Making
- Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting
- Cultural Industries and Urban Development
- Advanced Statistical Process Monitoring
- History and Politics in Latin America
- Data Analysis with R
- Advanced Statistical Methods and Models
- Cognitive Science and Mapping
- Historical Studies in Latin America
- Musicology and Musical Analysis
- Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling
- Supply Chain and Inventory Management
- Political Economy and Marxism
- Energy Load and Power Forecasting
- Politics and Society in Latin America
- Consumer Market Behavior and Pricing
- History and International Relations
University of Bath
2015-2025
University of the Pacific
2022
California State University, Fullerton
2022
Polytechnic University of Turin
2022
Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
2022
Mathematical Institute of the Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts
2022
Chinese Academy of Sciences
2022
University of Portsmouth
2022
University of Tsukuba
2022
Royal Preston Hospital
2022
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds future is both exciting challenging, with individuals organisations seeking to minimise risks maximise utilities. large number forecasting applications calls for a diverse set methods tackle real-life challenges. This article provides non-systematic review theory practice forecasting. We provide an overview wide range theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles,...
Abstract Decision makers and forecasters often receive advice from different sources including human experts statistical methods. This research examines, in the context of stock price forecasting, how apparent source affects attention that is paid to it when mode delivery identical for both sources. In Study 1, two groups participants were given same advised point interval forecasts. One group was told these a expert other they generated by forecasting method. The then asked adjust forecasts...
Partial table of contents: MODEL FORMULATION AND ANALYSIS. From Influence to Relevance Knowledge (R. Howard). Complexity, Calibration and Causality in Diagrams (T. Speed). THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS. Statistical Principles on Graphs (J. Smith). Belief Adjustment (M. Goldstein). PROBLEMS APPLICATIONS: INDUSTRIAL. Real Time for Monitoring Controlling Mechanical Systems (A. Agonino & K. Ramamurthi). A Socio-technical Approach Assessing Human Reliability (L. Phillips, et al.). Bayesian Updating...
Scenario planning can be a useful and attractive tool in strategic management. In rapidly changing environment it avoid the pitfalls of more traditional methods. Moreover, provides means addressing uncertainty without recourse to use subjective probabilities, which suffer from serious cognitive biases. However, one underdeveloped element scenario is evaluation alternative strategies across range scenarios. If this carried out informally then inferior may selected, while those formal...
Accurate forecasts are crucial to successful organizational planning. In 2001, 40 international experts published a set of principles guide best practices in forecasting. Some these relate the use management judgment. Most organizations judgment at some stage their forecasting process, but do they so effectively? Although can lead significant improvements accuracy, it also be biased and inconsistent. The show how forecasters should assess its effectiveness. We conducted survey 149 examine...
Abstract The use of surrogate weights based on rankings has been proposed as a method for avoiding difficulties associated with the elicitation in multi‐attribute decision analysis. When simple multiattribute rating technique using swings (SMARTS) is being employed it suggested that rank order centroid (ROC) are best to use. This study shows ROC appropriate substitute original constrained sum fixed total (usually 1 or 100) used point allocation method. If, however, determined without any...
Time series found in areas such as marketing and sales often have regular established patterns which are occasionally affected by exogenous influences, promotions. While statistical forecasting methods adept at extrapolating series, judgmental forecasters a potential advantage that they can take into account the effect of these external may occur too infrequently for reliable estimation. This suggests combination method judgment is appropriate. An experiment was conducted to examine how make...
The behaviour of poker players and sports gamblers has been shown to change after winning or losing a significant amount money on single hand. In this paper, we explore whether there are changes in experts’ when performing judgmental adjustments statistical forecasts and, particular, examine the impact ‘big losses’. We define big loss as adjustment that significantly decreases forecasting accuracy compared baseline forecast. essence, losses directly linked with wrong direction highly...