A5027275699- Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
- Market Dynamics and Volatility
- Economic Theory and Policy
- Global Financial Crisis and Policies
- Economic theories and models
- Housing Market and Economics
- Economic Policies and Impacts
- Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth
- Global Energy and Sustainability Research
- Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies
- Global Energy Security and Policy
- Housing, Finance, and Neoliberalism
- Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling
- Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
- Economic and Fiscal Studies
- Financial Literacy, Pension, Retirement Analysis
- Banking stability, regulation, efficiency
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Energy, Environment, Economic Growth
- European Monetary and Fiscal Policies
- Globalization, Economics, and Policies
- Finance, Markets, and Regulation
- Italy: Economic History and Contemporary Issues
- Reservoir Engineering and Simulation Methods
SGH Warsaw School of Economics
2015-2024
National Bank of Poland
2009-2018
European Central Bank
2015
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds future is both exciting challenging, with individuals organisations seeking to minimise risks maximise utilities. large number forecasting applications calls for a diverse set methods tackle real-life challenges. This article provides non-systematic review theory practice forecasting. We provide an overview wide range theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles,...
The paper compares the quality of real‐time forecasts from a standard medium‐scale New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to those Survey Professional Forecasters (SPF) and DSGE‐VARs. It is shown that DSGE relatively successful in forecasting U.S. economy. This especially true for conditional on SPF nowcasts, which case power turns out be similar or better than all variables horizons. An important weakness benchmark poor absolute performance its point rather badly...
Abstract Unprecedented increases in European natural gas prices observed between late 2021 and mid 2022 raise a question about the sources of these events. In this article we investigate topic using time-varying parameters structural vector autoregressive model for crude oil, US prices. This flexible framework allows us to measure how disturbances specific analyzed markets propagate within system propagation mechanism evolves time. Our findings are fourfold. First, show that oil hardly...
This paper examines the European natural gas market connectedness. Four main markets from North-Western and South regions are investigated with Diebold-Yilmaz connectedness approach derived time-varying parameters VAR model stochastic volatility. We show that becomes increasingly integrated. Our results update previous findings, which pointed to leading role of British NBP as a source shocks price Instead, we demonstrate two in Europe Dutch TTF German NCG. In recent years, however, observed...
Abstract A simple intertemporal current account model is found to explain successfully the configuration in euro area before Great Recession. The analysis suggests that consumption smoothing, prompted by expectations of economic convergence and removal exchange rate risk, has been an important driving force for build‐up divergence since creation monetary union. also predicts deficits surpluses would narrow under a post‐crisis scenario moderate catching‐up more segmented bond markets.
The size of the rental housing market in most countries around globe is small. In this article, we claim that may be detrimental to macroeconomic stability. We do it three steps. First, using survey data for Poland, a country with high homeownership ratio, discuss microeconomic tenure choice determinants. Second, panel 28 EU over period 2004–2017, provide evidence response house prices fundamentals attenuated by private market. Third, propose DSGE model which households satisfy needs both...
The paper investigates whether the size of rental market affects house prices fluctuations or volatility construction sector activity over business cycle. For that purpose we construct a database variables describing housing in group twelve initial euro area members and ten other OECD countries years 1995–2014 conduct series panel regressions. We find developed attenuates sector, especially for common currency sample. claim differences among monetary union terms developments can be...
Abstract This article uses the interacted panel VAR method to analyse how institutional factors related structure of housing market explain cross‐country heterogeneity in responses macroeconomic shocks. While previous literature focused on stabilizing role mortgage market, we argue that tenure also plays an important role. In baseline, use data for nine OECD members investigate size and regulations rental affect response interest rate As a reference, conduct similar analysis with as factor....