A5083232109- Sports Analytics and Performance
- Sport and Mega-Event Impacts
- Sports, Gender, and Society
- Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
- Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Gambling Behavior and Treatments
- Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies
- Global Financial Crisis and Policies
- Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
- Consumer Market Behavior and Pricing
- Doping in Sports
- Forest ecology and management
- Sports Performance and Training
- Advanced Statistical Methods and Models
- Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling
- Energy Load and Power Forecasting
- Statistical Methods and Inference
- European Monetary and Fiscal Policies
- Ethics in Business and Education
- Auction Theory and Applications
- Market Dynamics and Volatility
- Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth
- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Fiscal Policies and Political Economy
- Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
University of Reading
2016-2025
School of International Relations
2021
Bank of England
2019
University of Oxford
2004-2018
New College
2018
University of Birmingham
2009-2013
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds future is both exciting challenging, with individuals organisations seeking to minimise risks maximise utilities. large number forecasting applications calls for a diverse set methods tackle real-life challenges. This article provides non-systematic review theory practice forecasting. We provide an overview wide range theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles,...
This research investigates the link between rivalry and unethical behavior. We propose that people will be more likely to engage in behavior when competing against their rivals than non-rival competitors. Across an archival study a series of experiments, we found was associated with increased unsporting behavior, use deception, willingness employ negotiation tactics. also explore psychological underpinnings order illuminate how it differs from general competition why increases The data...
Abstract We use a series of historical natural experiments in association football to test whether social pressure from home stadium crowd affected behavior and outcomes. The standout effect an empty was that referees cautioned visiting players less often, by over third yellow card per match or once for every 22 fouls committed. Stadium crowds caused favor the team their decision‐making. Empty stadiums appear have reduced overall advantage final outcomes matches, but we cannot statistically...
Journal Article Information and Efficiency: Goal Arrival in Soccer Betting Get access Karen Croxson, Croxson University of Oxford the Oxford–Man Institute Quantitative Finance Search for other works by this author on: Academic Google Scholar J. James Reade Birmingham The Economic Journal, Volume 124, Issue 575, March 2014, Pages 62–91, https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12033 Published: 03 June 2013 history Received: 21 September 2011 Accepted: 20 November 2012
This paper provides an overview of the R package gets, which contains facilities for automated general-to-specific (GETS) modeling mean and variance a regression, indicator saturation (IS) methods detection outliers structural breaks. The can be specified as autoregressive model with covariates (an
Research question This study looks at stadium attendances in elite-level European football, to suggest how people responded the initial COVID-19 outbreak. offers insight into professional sports will emerge from social lockdowns and competition taking place behind closed doors.
Abstract The data revolution has not passed soccer by as an industry. However, it transformed the sport in same way in, say, baseball. In this article we firstly describe current landscape of analytics soccer, using England focus our attention. We document extent to which academic contributions from management mathematics and across a range disciplines have shaped development analytic methods date, consider they will be essential continues advance sport, most notably via use causal inference...
Social media is now used as a forecasting tool by variety of firms and agencies. But how useful are such data in outcomes? Can social add any information to that produced prediction/betting market? We source 13.8 million posts from Twitter, combine them with contemporaneous Betfair betting prices, forecast the outcomes English Premier League soccer matches they unfold. Using microblogging dictionary analyze content Tweets, we find aggregate tone Tweets contains significant not particularly...
We use a series of natural experiments in association football (soccer) to test whether the lack social pressure from spectators affected behaviour and outcomes. observe that normal advantage home team playing their own stadium was on average eroded when they played behind closed doors, with no supporters. Among various effects fans being present, visiting players were cautioned significantly less often by referees. This suggests doors matches are different because referees favour decision...
In this note, we consider early evidence regarding behavioural responses to an emerging public health emergency. We explore patterns in stadium attendance demand by exploiting match-level data from the Belarusian Premier League (BPL), a football competition that kept playing unrestricted front of spectators throughout global COVID-19 pandemic, unlike all other European professional sports leagues. observe Belarus declined significantly initial period maximum uncertainty. Surprisingly, then...
Mass attendance events are a mainstay of economic and social activity. Whilst the benefits from such interactions large, they may also facilitate spread diseases person to person. We provide evidence on how mass outdoor gatherings contributed COVID-19. do this by considering at English football matches in February March 2020 Covid-19 cases deaths local areas April 2020. The results suggest that an additional match taking place area increased Covid 2 or 3 per 100,000 people. There is some...
Abstract In less than a decade, the Egyptian Premier League has experienced three distinct changes between periods of competition in either crowded or empty stadiums. We exploit this unique sequence natural experiments, to answer two questions neglected by still emerging literature on effects crowds behaviour and decision making. First, does reinstating supportive crowd after long period absence affect performances pitch? Second, is any reduced home advantage from competing stadiums robust...
Abstract We present the first empirical study to reveal presence of implicit discrimination in a non‐experimental setting . By using large dataset in‐match data English Premier League, we show that white referees award significantly more yellow cards against non‐white players oppositional identity argue this is result by showing discriminatory behaviour: (i) increases how rushed referee before making decision, and (ii) it level ambiguity decision. The variation cannot be explained any form...
Previous research exploring the role of belief dynamics for consumers in entertainment industry has largely ignored fact that emotional reactions are a function content and consumer's disposition towards certain protagonists. By analyzing 19 m tweets combination with in-play information 380 football matches played English Premier League we contribute to literature three ways. First, present setting testing how drive behavior which is characterized by several desirable features empirical...
Journal Article Quantification of competitive balance in European football: development specially designed indices Get access V. Manasis, Manasis * Department Sports Management, University Peloponnese, Sparta, Greece *Corresponding author: vmanasis@gmail.com Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Avgerinou, Avgerinou I. Ntzoufras, Ntzoufras Statistics, Athens Economics and Business, J. Reade Economics, Birmingham, UK IMA Management Mathematics, Volume 24,...
In this paper we assess opinion polls, prediction markets, expert and statistical modelling over a large number of US elections in order to determine which perform better terms forecasting outcomes. line with existing literature, bias‐correct polls. We consider accuracy, bias precision different time horizons before an election, conclude that markets appear provide the most precise forecasts are similar find our model struggles competitive forecasts, while appears be value. Finally note...
We use a series of historical natural experiments in association football to test whether social pressure from home stadium crowd affected behaviour and outcomes. The standout effect an empty was that referees cautioned visiting players less often, by over third yellow card per match or once for every twenty-two fouls committed. Stadium crowds caused favour the team their decision making. Empty stadiums appear have reduced overall advantage final outcomes matches, but we cannot statistically...