A5034026266- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Vibrio bacteria research studies
- Parasite Biology and Host Interactions
- Parasites and Host Interactions
- Zoonotic diseases and public health
- Fish Ecology and Management Studies
- Microplastics and Plastic Pollution
- Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- Evolution and Genetic Dynamics
- Aquatic Invertebrate Ecology and Behavior
- Data-Driven Disease Surveillance
- Global Maternal and Child Health
- Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Child Nutrition and Water Access
- Animal Ecology and Behavior Studies
- Influenza Virus Research Studies
- Freshwater macroinvertebrate diversity and ecology
- Environmental DNA in Biodiversity Studies
- Marine and coastal plant biology
- Myxozoan Parasites in Aquatic Species
- Coastal and Marine Management
- Recycling and Waste Management Techniques
- Marine and fisheries research
- Plant and animal studies
Politecnico di Milano
2016-2025
University of Milan
2025
University of Basel
2024
École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne
2011-2015
École Polytechnique
2011
The spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy prompted drastic measures for transmission containment. We examine the effects these interventions, based on modeling unfolding epidemic. test options spatially explicit type, suggested by wave infections spreading from initial foci to rest Italy. estimate parameters a metacommunity Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR)-like model that includes network 107 provinces connected mobility at high resolution, and critical...
Abstract The pressing need to restart socioeconomic activities locked-down control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy must be coupled with effective methodologies selectively relax containment measures. Here we employ a spatially explicit model, properly attentive role inapparent infections, capable of: estimating expected unfolding outbreak under continuous lockdown (baseline trajectory); assessing deviations from baseline, should relaxations result increased disease transmission;...
Mathematical models can provide key insights into the course of an ongoing epidemic, potentially aiding real-time emergency management in allocating health care resources and by anticipating impact alternative interventions. We study ex post reliability predictions 2010–2011 Haiti cholera outbreak from four independent modeling studies that appeared almost simultaneously during unfolding epidemic. consider different approaches to spatial spread Vibrio cholerae mechanisms transmission,...
We investigate the role of human mobility as a driver for long-range spreading cholera infections, which primarily propagate through hydrologically controlled ecological corridors. Our aim is to build spatially explicit model disease epidemic, relevant both social and scientific issues. present two-layer network that accounts interplay between epidemiological dynamics, hydrological transport long-distance dissemination pathogen Vibrio cholerae owing host movement, described here by means...
Significance Big data and, in particular, mobile phone are expected to revolutionize epidemiology, yet their full potential is still untapped. Here, we take a significant step forward by developing an epidemiological model that accounts for the spatiotemporal patterns of human mobility derived directly tracking properly anonymized users. Such allow us investigate, with unprecedented level detail, effect mass gatherings can have on spreading waterborne diseases like cholera. Identifying and...
Abstract River networks define ecological corridors characterised by unidirectional streamflow, which may impose downstream drift to aquatic organisms or affect their movement. Animals and plants manage persist in riverine ecosystems, though, fact harbour high biological diversity. Here, we study metapopulation persistence river analysing stage‐structured populations that exploit different dispersal pathways, both along‐stream overland. Using stability analysis, derive a novel criterion for...
Elevational gradients of biodiversity have been widely investigated, and yet a clear interpretation the biotic abiotic factors that determine how species richness varies with elevation is still elusive. In mountainous landscapes, habitats at different elevations are characterized by areal extent connectivity properties, key drivers biodiversity, as predicted metacommunity theory. However, most previous studies directly correlated to elevational potential drivers, thus neglecting interplay...
While campaigns of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 are underway across the world, communities face challenge a fair and effective distribution limited supply doses. Current vaccine allocation strategies based on criteria such as age or risk. In light strong spatial heterogeneities in disease history transmission, we explore complement to existing approaches. Given practical constraints complex epidemiological dynamics, designing at country scale is an intricate task. We propose novel optimal...
[1] Here we propose spatially explicit predictions of the residual progression current Haiti cholera outbreak accounting for dynamics susceptible and infected individuals within different local human communities, redistribution among them Vibrio cholerae, causative agent disease. Spreading mechanisms include diffusion pathogens in aquatic environment their dissemination due to movement carriers. The model reproduces spatiotemporal features date, thus suggesting robustness predicted future...
Understanding, predicting, and controlling outbreaks of waterborne diseases are crucial goals public health policies, but pose challenging problems because infection patterns influenced by spatial structure temporal asynchrony. Although explicit modeling is made possible widespread data mapping hydrology, transportation infrastructure, population distribution, sanitation, the precise condition under which a disease epidemic can start in spatially setting still lacking. Here we show that...
Natural ecosystems are characterized by striking diversity of form and functions yet exhibit deep symmetries emerging across scales space, time, organizational complexity. Species-area relationships species-abundance distributions examples patterns irrespective the details underlying ecosystem functions. Here we present empirical theoretical evidence for a new macroecological pattern related to local species persistence times, defined as time spans between colonizations extinctions in given...
Significance Predicting how temperature, climate change, and emerging infectious diseases interact to drive local extinction risk for natural populations requires complex integrated approaches involving field data [fish environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling hydrological geomorphological surveys], laboratory studies (eDNA analyses disease prevalence assessment), metacommunity modeling. Together, these tools reproduce all of the relevant biological ecohydrological features proliferative kidney...
Abstract Schistosomiasis is a parasitic infection that widespread in sub-Saharan Africa, where it represents major health problem. We study the drivers of its geographical distribution Senegal via spatially explicit network model accounting for epidemiological dynamics driven by local socioeconomic and environmental conditions, human mobility. The parameterized tapping several available geodatabases large dataset mobile phone traces. It reliably reproduces observed spatial patterns regional...
Significance Some freshwater snail species are intermediate hosts in the life cycle of parasites causing human schistosomiasis, a neglected water-based disease (treatable but debilitating and poverty-reinforcing) affecting about 150 million people yearly sub-Saharan Africa alone. Snail abundance is thus often target epidemiological control measures schistosomiasis incidence. Our work studies ecology host snails through field campaigns theoretical models within natural/artificial water...
Schistosomiasis is a parasitic, water-related disease that prevalent in tropical and subtropical areas of the world, causing severe chronic consequences especially among children. Here we study spatial spread this within network connected villages endemic region Lower Basin Senegal River, Senegal. The analysis performed by means spatially explicit metapopulation model couples local-scale eco-epidemiological dynamics with mechanisms related to human mobility (estimated from anonymized mobile...
Abstract Spatiotemporal ecological modelling of terrestrial ecosystems relies on climatological and biophysical Earth observations. Due to their increasing availability, global coverage, frequent acquisition high spatial resolution, satellite remote sensing ( SRS ) products are frequently integrated in situ data the development ecosystem models EM s) quantifying interaction among vegetation component hydrological, energy nutrient cycles. This review highlights main advances achieved last...
Simple models of disease propagation often disregard the effects transmission heterogeneity on ecological and epidemiological dynamics associated with host-parasite interactions. However, for some diseases like schistosomiasis, a widespread parasitic infection caused by Schistosoma worms, accounting is crucial to both characterize long-term evaluate opportunities control. Elaborating classic Macdonald model macroparasite transmission, we analyze families including explicit descriptions...
Abstract A recent outbreak of anthrax disease, severely affecting reindeer herds in Siberia, has been reportedly associated to the presence infected carcasses or spores released from active layer over permafrost, which is thawing and thickening at increasing rates, thus underlying re-emerging nature this pathogen Arctic region because warming temperatures. Anthrax a global zoonotic epizootic with high case-fatality ratio animals. Its transmission mediated by environmental contamination...
The Mediterranean basin is among the most impacted marine ecoregions globally, being at same time semi-enclosed by densely populated countries and crossed trafficked maritime routes. Such anthropogenic pressure threatens both quality of its waters high biodiversity living in them, making role Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) crucial for preserving species suitable habitats. Under European Union Strategy Framework Directive, litter has been recognized as one principal causes pollution, public...
Abstract Optimal control theory can be a useful tool to identify the best strategies for management of infectious diseases. In most applications disease with ordinary differential equations, objective functional optimized is formulated in monetary terms as sum intervention costs and cost associated burden disease. We present alternate formulations that express epidemiological outcomes via health metrics reframe problem include features such budget constraints targets. These are illustrated...
The temporal variability of streamflow is known to be a key feature structuring and controlling fluvial ecological communities ecosystem processes. Although alterations regime due habitat fragmentation or other anthropogenic factors are ubiquitous, quantitative understanding their implications on structure function far from complete. Here, by experimenting with two contrasting flow regimes in stream microcosms, we provide novel mechanistic explanation for how fluctuating may affect grazing...
More than three years after its appearance in Haiti, cholera has already caused more 8,500 deaths and 695,000 infections it is feared to become endemic. However, no clear evidence of a stable environmental reservoir pathogenic Vibrio cholerae, the infective agent disease, emerged so far, suggesting possibility that transmission cycle disease being maintained by bacteria freshly shed infected individuals. Should this be case, could principle eradicated from Haiti. Here, we develop framework...
Abstract Proliferative kidney disease ( PKD ) is a high‐mortality pathology that critically affects freshwater salmonid populations. Infection caused by the endoparasitic myxozoan Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae , which exploits bryozoans as primary hosts. Incidence and severity of have recently increased, largely owing to rising water temperatures linked climate change, causing decline in fish catches local extinctions many river systems. Here, building on proposed model transmission,...
We study the geography of schistosomiasis across Burkina Faso by means a spatially explicit model water-based disease dynamics. The quantitatively addresses geographic stratification burden in novel framework explicitly accounting for drivers and controls disease, including spatial information on distributions population infrastructure, jointly with general description human mobility climatic/ecological drivers. Spatial patterns are analysed extraction mapping suitable eigenvectors Jacobian...