A5044528074- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Climate variability and models
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Academic Writing and Publishing
- Legal Systems and Judicial Processes
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Fire effects on ecosystems
- Musculoskeletal pain and rehabilitation
- Science and Climate Studies
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Conflict of Laws and Jurisdiction
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Academic integrity and plagiarism
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Doctoral Education Challenges and Solutions
- Wind and Air Flow Studies
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Academic Publishing and Open Access
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Legal Cases and Commentary
- Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare and Education
University of Manchester
2016-2025
National Centre for Atmospheric Science
2015-2024
OASIS Clinic
2023
Pain Management Institute
2023
Health Affairs
2022
Universities Research Association
2021
Albany State University
1998-2020
University at Albany, State University of New York
1997-2020
ETH Zurich
2020
University of Pennsylvania
2020
This paper discusses our concept of the proper (and improper) use diagnostic variables in severe-storm forecasting. A framework for classification is developed, indicating limitations such and their suitability operational diagnosis The utility indices parameters as prognostic tools forecasting discussed, revealing relevant issues designing new used making weather forecasts. Finally, criteria required to claim that a variable represents an effective are proposed. We argue few, if any, have...
Abstract Moisture flux convergence (MFC) is a term in the conservation of water vapor equation and was first calculated 1950s 1960s as vertically integrated quantity to predict rainfall associated with synoptic-scale systems. Vertically MFC also incorporated into Kuo cumulus parameterization scheme for Tropics. eventually suggested use forecasting convective initiation midlatitudes 1970, but practical usage quickly evolved include only surface data, owing higher spatial temporal resolution...
Abstract Over the last 50 yr, number of tornadoes reported in United States has doubled from about 600 per year 1950s to around 1200 2000s. This doubling is likely not related meteorological causes alone. To account for this increase a simple least squares linear regression was fitted annual tornado reports. A “big day” single day when numerous and/or many exceeding specified intensity threshold were anywhere country. By defining big without considering spatial distribution tornadoes,...
A commonly employed explanation for single- and multiple-banded clouds precipitation in the extratropics is slantwise convection due to release of moist symmetric instability (MSI), which one type conditional (CSI). This article presents a review CSI with intent synthesizing results from previous observational, theoretical, modeling studies. contends that as diagnostic tool assess has been, continues be, misused overused. Drawing parallels an ingredients-based methodology forecasting deep,...
The first broad program of scientific shallow drilling on the U.S. Atlantic continental shelf has delineated rocks Pleistocene to Late Cretaceous age, including phosphoritic Miocene strata, widespread Eocene carbonate deposits that serve as reflective seismic markers, and several regional unconformities. Two sites, off Maryland New Jersey, showed light hydrocarbon gases having affinity mature petroleum. Pore fluid studies relatively fresh brackish water occurs beneath much shelf, whereas...
Abstract The false alarm rate (FAR) measures the fraction of forecasted events that did not occur, and it remains one key metrics for verifying National Weather Service (NWS) weather warnings. national FAR tornado warnings in 2003 was 0.76, indicating only four verified. NWS’s goal 2010 is to reduce this value 0.70. Conventional wisdom alarms public’s willingness respond future events. This paper questions conventional wisdom. In addition, argues used evaluate do accurately represent numbers...
Current prediction of snowfall amounts is accomplished either by using empirical techniques or a standard modification liquid equivalent precipitation such as the 10-to-1 rule. This rule, which supposes that depth 10 times (a snow ratio 10:1, reflecting an assumed density 100 kg m−3), particularly popular technique with operational forecasters, although it dates from limited nineteenth-century study. Unfortunately, measurements freshly fallen indicate can vary on order 3:1 to (occasionally)...
Abstract The European Severe Storms Laboratory (ESSL) was founded in 2006 to advance the science and forecasting of severe convective storms Europe. ESSL a grassroots effort individual scientists from various countries. purpose this article is describe 10-yr history present sampling its successful activities. Specifically, developed manages only multinational database weather reports Europe: Weather Database (ESWD). Despite efforts eliminate biases, ESWD still suffers spatial inhomogeneities...
Abstract The social and economic impact of tornadoes in Europe is analyzed using tornado reports from the European Severe Weather Database between 1950 2015. Despite what often assumed by general public even meteorologists researchers, do occur they are associated with injuries, fatalities, damages, although their reported frequencies intensities lower compared United States. Currently, threat to underestimated. Few meteorological services have developed maintained databases fewer issued...
Abstract The year 1919 was important in meteorology, not only because it the that American Meteorological Society founded, but also for two other reasons. One of foundational papers extratropical cyclone structure by Jakob Bjerknes published 1919, leading to what is now known as Norwegian model. Also year, a series meetings held led formation organizations promoted international collaboration and scientific exchange required research, which necessity involves spatial scales spanning national...
Abstract A climatology of midlatitude 200- and 500-hPa cut-off low systems in the Northern Southern Hemispheres is constructed from NCEP–NCAR reanalysis by detecting tracking, under one consistent method, all that persisted for more than 36 h 58 years 1960–2017. This method identifies a as cold-core geopotential height minimum isolated main westerlies with strong temperature gradient on its eastern flank. The obtained spatial seasonal distributions show preferred regions occurrence within...
Mesoscale-model simulations are used to examine the structure and dynamics of a gap-outflow event over Gulf Tehuantepec, Mexico, that was associated with surge cold air along eastern slopes Sierra Madre. The simulated winds emerged from Chivela Pass, reached maximum speed 25 m s−1, turned anticyclonically as they fanned out gulf. Northerly were also able ascend mountains east, lesser extent west, indicating movement across Madre not confined pass. A mesoscale pressure ridge aligned axis jet,...
A large gap in skill between forecasts of the atmospheric circulation (relatively high skill) and quantitative precipitation (low has emerged over past three decades. One common approach toward closing this been to try simulate features directly by decreasing horizontal grid spacing numerical weather prediction models. Also at time, research begun explore benefits short-range ensemble forecast methods. The authors argue that each benefits: high-resolution models assist development a...
In the wake of eastern United States cyclone 12–14 March 1993, a cold surge, originating over Alaska and western Canada, brought northerlies exceeding 20 m s−1 temperature decreases up to 15°C 24 h into Mexico Central America. This paper addresses multiscale aspects surge from planetary scale mesoscale, focusing on 1) structure evolution leading edge 2) reasons for its extraordinary intensity equatorward extent, 3) impact Tropics, specifically, strength trade winds sea surface in Pacific....
Observational and modeling studies documented in the literature indicate that large-scale flow has an important effect on structure evolution of low-level fronts midlatitude cyclones. The purpose this paper is to address role cyclone/frontal through a combined observational idealized approach. Analyses two observed cyclone cases embedded diffluence confluence, respectively, are presented illustrate possible structures evolutions. Specifically, moving into diffluent, high-amplitude ridge...
Background: The increasing ownership of smartphones provides major opportunities for epidemiological research through self-reported and passively collected data. Objective: This pilot study aimed to codesign a smartphone app assess associations between weather joint pain in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) the success daily data entry over 60-day period enablers barriers collection. Methods: A patient public involvement group (n=5) 2 focus groups RA (n=9) supported collecting...
Patients with chronic pain commonly believe their is related to the weather. Scientific evidence support beliefs inconclusive, in part due difficulties getting a large dataset of patients frequently recording symptoms during variety weather conditions. Smartphones allow opportunity collect data overcome these difficulties. Our study
Abstract A high sea surface temperature is generally accepted to be one of the necessary ingredients for tropical cyclone development, indicative potential heat and moisture fluxes capable fueling a self-sustaining circulation. Although minimum 26.5°C threshold cyclogenesis has become mainstay in research education, fact that nonnegligible fraction storm formation events (about 5%) occur over cooler waters casts some doubt on robustness this estimate. Tropical subthreshold temperatures...
Abstract. The Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) has been used to simulate a region of Brazil heavily influenced by biomass burning. Nested simulations were run at 5 1 km horizontal grid spacing for three case studies in September 2012. Simulations without fire emissions, convective parameterisation on the domain, aerosol–radiation interactions order explore differences attributable parameterisations better understand aerosol direct effects cloud responses....
Abstract To simulate the large-scale impacts of wind farms, turbines are parameterized within mesoscale models in which grid sizes typically much larger than turbine scales. Five wind-farm parameterizations were implemented Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model v4.3.3 to multiple operational farms North Sea, verified against a satellite image, airborne measurements, FINO-1 meteorological mast data on 14 October 2017. The parameterization by Volker et al. underestimated turbulence...
Abstract The urgency to mitigate the effects of climate change necessitates an unprecedented global deployment offshore renewable-energy technologies mainly including wind, tidal stream, wave energy, and floating solar photovoltaic. To achieve energy demand for terawatt-hours, infrastructure such will require a large spatial footprint. Accommodating this footprint rapid landscape evolution, ideally within two decades. For instance, United Kingdom has committed deploying 50 GW wind by 2030...
Motivated by outstanding issues from a previous case study of midlatitude cold surge that affected Mexico and Central America, the climatology American surges is examined in this paper. An independently derived listing 177 cold-surge events employed for which following properties are tabulated: onset date, duration, time between events, latitude maximum equatorward penetration (ϕmin), 48-h surface temperature change at Merida, (ΔT). These data show 75% have durations 2–6 days, same timescale...