A5014474268- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Climate variability and models
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Fire effects on ecosystems
- Wind and Air Flow Studies
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Landslides and related hazards
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Disaster Management and Resilience
- Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Lightning and Electromagnetic Phenomena
- Computational Physics and Python Applications
- Tree-ring climate responses
- Particle Accelerators and Free-Electron Lasers
- Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
- Risk Perception and Management
- Fire dynamics and safety research
- Fluid Dynamics and Turbulent Flows
- Climate Change and Sustainable Development
- Particle accelerators and beam dynamics
- Muon and positron interactions and applications
NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory
2016-2025
University of Oklahoma
2012-2025
Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies
1999-2020
University of Washington
2020
A.T. Still University
2020
University of King's College
2020
University of Cambridge
2020
Diversitech (United States)
2020
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2005-2018
Mississippi State University
2012
An approach to forecasting the potential for flash flood-producing storms is developed, using notion of basic ingredients. Heavy precipitation result sustained high rainfall rates. In turn, rates involve rapid ascent air containing substantial water vapor and also depend on efficiency. The duration an event associated with its speed movement size system causing along direction movement. This leads naturally a consideration meteorological processes by which these ingredients are brought...
The state of knowledge regarding trends and an understanding their causes is presented for a specific subset extreme weather climate types. For severe convective storms (tornadoes, hailstorms, thunderstorms), differences in time space practices collecting reports events make using the reporting database to detect extremely difficult. Overall, changes frequency environments favorable thunderstorms have not been statistically significant. precipitation, there strong evidence nationally...
Weather and climate extremes have been varying changing on many different time scales. In recent decades, heat waves generally become more frequent across the United States, while cold decreasing. While this is in keeping with expectations a warming climate, it turns out that decadal variations number of U.S. do not correlate well observed during last century. Annual peak flow data reveal river flooding trends century scale show uniform changes country. flood magnitudes Southwest decreasing,...
Severe thunderstorms comprise an extreme class of deep convective clouds and produce high-impact weather such as destructive surface winds, hail, tornadoes. This study addresses the question how severe thunderstorm frequency in United States might change because enhanced global radiative forcing associated with elevated greenhouse gas concentrations. We use climate models a high-resolution regional model to examine larger-scale (or “environmental”) meteorological conditions that foster...
Abstract Radar-based convective modes were assigned to a sample of tornadoes and significant severe thunderstorms reported in the contiguous United States (CONUS) during 2003–11. The hail (≥2-in. diameter), wind (≥65-kt thunderstorm gusts), filtered by maximum event magnitude per hour on 40-km Rapid Update Cycle model horizontal grid. filtering process produced 22 901 tornado events, representing 78.5% all such reports CONUS period. mode scheme presented herein begins with three radar-based...
Abstract In this study we investigate convective environments and their corresponding climatological features over Europe the United States. For purpose, National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) Arrival Time Difference long-range lightning detection network (ATDnet) data, ERA5 hybrid-sigma levels, severe weather reports from European Severe Weather Database (ESWD) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Data were combined on a common grid of 0.25° 1-h steps period 1979–2018. The severity hazards...
Abstract Globally, thunderstorms are responsible for a significant fraction of rainfall, and in the mid-latitudes often produce extreme weather, including large hail, tornadoes damaging winds. Despite this importance, how global frequency their accompanying hazards has changed over past 4 decades remains unclear. Large-scale diagnostics applied to climate models have suggested that intensity is likely increase future. Here, we show according ERA5 convective available potential energy (CAPE)...
An estimate is made of the probability an occurrence a tornado day near any location in contiguous 48 states for time during year. Gaussian smoothers space and have been applied to observed record days from 1980 1999 produce daily maps annual cycles at point on 80 km × grid. Many aspects this climatological identified previous work, but method allows one consider several new ways. The two regions maximum United States are northeastern Colorado peninsular Florida, there large region between...
The authors investigated differences in the environments associated with tornadic and nontornadic mesocyclones are using proximity soundings. Questions about definition of raised. As severe storms high spatial temporal resolution observed, operational meaning becomes less clear. Thus exploration dataset is subject to certain caveats that presented some detail. Results from this relatively small support a recently developed conceptual model development maintenance low-level within supercells....
Abstract Over the last 50 yr, number of tornadoes reported in United States has doubled from about 600 per year 1950s to around 1200 2000s. This doubling is likely not related meteorological causes alone. To account for this increase a simple least squares linear regression was fitted annual tornado reports. A “big day” single day when numerous and/or many exceeding specified intensity threshold were anywhere country. By defining big without considering spatial distribution tornadoes,...
Numerical forecasts from a pilot program on short-range ensemble forecasting at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction are examined. The consists of 10 made using 80-km Eta Model and 5 regional spectral model. Results indicate that accuracy mean is comparable to 29-km Meso both mandatory level data 36-h forecast cyclone position. Calculations spread 36 48 h initial conditions created breeding growing modes technique larger than different analyses. However, position these two...
Abstract The probability of nontornadic severe weather event reports near any location in the United States for day year has been estimated. Gaussian smoothers space and time have applied to observed record thunderstorm occurrence from 1980 1994 produce daily maps annual cycles at point. Many aspects this climatology identified previous work, but method allows consideration several new ways. A review raw data, broken down various ways, reveals that numerous nonmeteorological artifacts are...
Reported path lengths and widths of tornadoes have been modeled using Weibull distributions for different Fujita (F) scale values. The fits are good over a wide range widths. Path length width tend to increase with increasing F scale, although the temporal nonstationarity data some parts (such as F3 tornadoes) is large enough that caution must be exercised in interpretation short periods record. statistical also demonstrate that, or increases, most likely F-scale value associated tends...
Abstract The primary objective of this study was to estimate the percentage U.S. tornadoes that are spawned annually by squall lines and bow echoes, or quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs). This achieved examining radar reflectivity images for every tornado event recorded during 1998–2000 in contiguous United States. Based on these images, type storm associated with each classified as cell, QLCS, other. Of 3828 database, 79% were produced cells, 18% QLCSs, remaining 3% other types,...
Abstract The threat of damaging hail from severe thunderstorms affects many communities and industries on a yearly basis, with annual economic losses in excess $1 billion (U.S. dollars). Past climatology has typically relied the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration/National Climatic Data Center’s (NOAA/NCDC) Storm publication, which numerous reporting biases nonmeteorological artifacts. This research seeks to quantify spatial temporal characteristics contiguous United States (CONUS)...
Substantial progress has been made recently relating the large-scale climate system and hazardous convective weather (HCW; tornadoes, hail, damaging wind), particularly over USA where there are large societal impacts a long observational record. Despite data limitations, HCW shown to be influenced by tropical atmosphere via Madden-Julian Oscillation El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Analysis of atmospheric environments favorable (e.g., available potential energy vertical wind shear) avoids model...
Whether or not climate change has had an impact on the occurrence of tornadoes in United States become a question high public and scientific interest, but changes how are reported have made it difficult to answer convincingly. We show that, excluding weakest tornadoes, mean annual number remained relatively constant, their variability increased since 1970s. This is due decrease days per year with combined increase many leading greater monthly time scales timing start tornado season.
Abstract Observed proximity soundings from Europe are used to highlight how well environmental parameters discriminate different kind of severe thunderstorm hazards. In addition, the skill in predicting lightning and waterspouts is also tested. The research area concentrates on central western European countries years 2009–15. total, 45 677 analyzed including 169 associated with extremely thunderstorms, 1754 8361 nonsevere 35 393 cases nonzero convective available potential energy (CAPE)...
Abstract Severe thunderstorms accompanied by tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds cause an average of 5.4 billion dollars damage each year across the United States, 10 billion-dollar events are no longer uncommon. This overall economic casualty risk—with over 600 severe thunderstorm related deaths in 2011—has prompted public scientific inquiries about impact climate change on tornadoes. We show that national annual frequencies tornado reports have remained relatively constant, but significant...
Abstract The European Severe Storms Laboratory (ESSL) was founded in 2006 to advance the science and forecasting of severe convective storms Europe. ESSL a grassroots effort individual scientists from various countries. purpose this article is describe 10-yr history present sampling its successful activities. Specifically, developed manages only multinational database weather reports Europe: Weather Database (ESWD). Despite efforts eliminate biases, ESWD still suffers spatial inhomogeneities...