The estimation of earthquakes’ occurrences prediction in seismic areas is a challenging problem seismology and earthquake engineering. Indeed, the prevention quantification possible damage provoked by destructive earthquakes are directly linked to this kind prevision. In our paper, we adopt parametric semi-Markov approach. This model assumes that sequence seen as Markov process besides it permits take into consideration more realistic assumption events’ dependence space time. elapsed time...

Abstract This article deals with the production of energy through photovoltaic (PV) panels. The efficiency and quantity produced by a PV panel depend on both deterministic factors, mainly related to technical characteristics panels, stochastic essentially amount incident solar radiation some climatic variables that modify panels such as temperature wind speed. main objective this work is estimate system fixed modeling factors listed above. Besides, we economic profitability plant, net...

Because of the stochastic nature wind turbines, output power management generation (WPG) is a fundamental challenge for integration energy systems into either or microgrids (i.e., isolated consisting local only) in operation and planning studies. In general, system can refer to both one farm number turbines given farms sited at area question. (microgrid) planning, WPG should be quantified determination expected flows analysis adequacy generation. Concerning this operation, incorporated an...

SUMMARY In this paper we apply a parametric semi-Markov process to model the dynamic evolution of HIV-1 infected patients. The seriousness infection is rendered by CD4+ T-lymphocyte counts. For purpose introduce main features nonhomogeneous models. After determining transition probabilities and waiting time distributions in each state disease, solve equations order estimate interval probabilities. These quantities appear be fundamental importance for clinical predictions. We also survival...

Abstract This paper aimed to estimate the income generated by a wind turbine over given time interval. The depends on two main variables: speed that determines produced energy and electricity price. Both price evolve randomly in are correlated. To consider this dependency, we applied vector autoregressive process (VAR) links both variables. An application was performed using real data from hypothetical located Sardinia (Italy). simulated VAR model closer empirical value compared with...

ABSTRACT The estimation of hurricane intensity evolution in some tropical and subtropical areas is a challenging problem. Indeed, the prevention quantification possible damage provoked by destructive hurricanes are directly linked to this kind prevision. For purpose, derivatives have been recently issued Chicago Mercantile Exchange, based on so‐called Carvill index. In our paper, we adopt parametric homogeneous semi‐Markov approach. This model assumes that lifespan can be described as...

Abstract Since the liberalization of electricity markets, prices are more volatile and expansion in derivatives trading occurs. Indeed, a well-known feature concerns its high volatility. For this reason, operators use power futures to hedge against unexpected risk deriving from adverse fluctuations spot within planned delivering period. contracts permit fix price advance for scheduled Our paper is devoted specifically Italian market. In respect, we examine empirical data IDEX, Energy...

We introduce the industrial portfolio of a wind farm hypothetical company and its valuation consistent with financial market. Next, we propose static risk management policy originating from hedging against volumetric due to drops in intensity discuss consequences. The effectiveness firstly requires adequate modeling calibration an extensive knowledge these atypical (commodity) markets. In this experiment, find significant benefits for weather-sensitive companies, which can lead new business...

Forecasting wind speed and direction is a challenging issue in the field of meteorological research. This topic appears to be great importance other research areas. For instance, quantitative finance may involved due recent development insurance risk contracts.In this paper we set up stochastic model able determine dynamic evolution at given location. The modeled through non-parametric homogeneous semi-Markov process where states are eight main sectors rose. then for each state by an...

The energy produced by a wind farm in given location and its associated income depends both on the characteristics that location—i.e., speed direction—and dynamics of electricity spot price. Because evidence cross-correlations between speed, direction price series their lagged series, we aim to assess hypothetical located central Italy when all interactions are considered. To model these cross auto-correlations efficiently, apply high-order multivariate Markov which includes dependencies...

Disease progression models are useful tools for gaining a systems' understanding of the transitions to disease states, and characterizing relationship between progress factors affecting it such as patients' profile, treatment HIV diagnosis stage. Patients classified into four states (based on CD4+ T-lymphocyte count) all allowed. Examinations identify patient carried out routinely throughout follow-up period. Therefore, times spent at various infection stages interval censored or right...

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index plays a crucial role in the climatic evolution of Northern Hemisphere. Predicting NAO is very challenging due to large number physical processes that influence it. Quantitative surveys have tried detect possible long-term trends or periodic features evolution. In this study, we implement stochastic model able replicate statistical characteristics index, based on non-homogeneous semi-Markov Model. For purpose, set up two states process, namely...

Hybrid production plants harness diverse climatic sources for electricity generation, playing a crucial role in the transition to renewable energies. This study aims forecast profitability of combined wind–photovoltaic energy system. Here, we develop model that integrates predicted spot prices and output forecasts, incorporating relevant variables enhance accuracy. The jointly modeled price constitute one innovative aspects this work. Regarding practical application, considered hypothetical...

It is important to model progression of a disease understanding if the patient's condition improving or getting worse. In case HIV disease, change in CD4+ T cell count used calculate i.e. CD4 goes down it represent disease. Due lack an effective cure for crucial monitor managing effectively. Therefore, this study aimed by using phase type survival trees cluster patients into homogenous groups based on their understand effect different factors prognostic significance and interactions...