Abstract Rupture complexity, typically in the form of heterogeneous slip distribution pattern, significantly affects local tsunami wave field. However, effect rupture complexity is not commonly considered any hazard assessment. Taking into account increases computational load, particularly regional‐scaled probabilistic assessments (PTHAs) that usually require a large number simulations based on synthetic scenarios. In this study, we investigate how PTHA by taking South China Sea (SCS) as an...

Coastal cities safe from tsunami today may become tsunami-prone with sea-level rise.

The Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM) was established to assess the seismic hazard and risk for by considering social economic impacts of various components from geology, seismology, engineering.This paper gives first version TEM probabilistic analysis in these aspects.We named it PSHA2015.The model adopts source parameters 38 seismogenic structures identified geologists.In addition specific fault sourcebased categorization, activities are categorized as shallow, subduction intraplate,...

The correlation between static Coulomb stress increases and aftershocks has thus far provided the strongest evidence that changes promote seismicity, a Chi‐Chi earthquake well exhibits. Several studies have deepened argument by resolving on aftershock focal mechanisms, which removes assumption are optimally oriented for failure. Here one compares percentage of planes failure is promoted after main shock relative to beforehand. For we find 28% increase thrust an 18% strike‐slip commensurate...

Abstract Characterizing the 700 km wide system of active faults on Shan Plateau, southeast eastern Himalayan syntaxis, is critical to understanding geodynamics and seismic hazard large region that straddles neighboring China, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam. Here we evaluate fault styles slip rates over multi‐timescales, reanalyze previously published short‐term Global Positioning System (GPS) velocities, slip‐rate gradients interpret regional kinematics drive crustal motion. Relative Sunda...

The Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM) published the first version of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (named TEM PSHA2015) 5 years ago. For updating to PSHA2020, we considered an updated seismogenic structure database, including structures newly identified with 3D geometry, earthquake catalog made current 2016, state-of-the-art models, a new set ground motion prediction equations, and site amplification factors. In addition earthquakes taking place on each individual structure, model...

Several different historical records allude to a disastrous tsunami on the southwestern Taiwan coast sometime between 1781 and 1782, with reported death toll of more than 40,000. Despite consistent reports from southwest Taiwan, no corroborative information exists for neighboring shorelines in southeast China or northwest Luzon, Philippines, plausible source this has never been identified. Neither large earthquake Manila trench active thrust faults nor submarine volcanic eruption northern...

Abstract. Seismogenic tsunami hazard assessments are highly dependent on the reliability of earthquake source models. Here in a study Manila subduction zone (MSZ) system, we combine geological characteristics subducting plate, geometry, and coupling state interface to propose series fault rupture scenarios. We divide into three segments: 14–16, 16–19, 19–21.7∘ N inferred from structures associated with down-going Sunda plate. Each these segments is capable generating earthquakes magnitude...

Earthquake forecasting, combined with precise ground-shaking estimations, plays a pivotal role in safeguarding public safety, fortifying infrastructure, and bolstering the preparedness of emergency services. This study introduces comprehensive workflow that integrates epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model preselected ground-motion (GMM), facilitating accurate short-term forecasting intensity (GSI), which is crucial for adequate earthquake warning earthquake-prone regions like...

This study validates several seismic models with long- and short-term forecasting capabilities used in probabilistic hazard assessment (PSHA) evaluates their impact on levels the Longitudinal Valley, Taiwan, a region characterized by high activity data quality. The Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) law demonstrates good fitting performance for long-term rate small to moderate magnitudes, while pure characteristic earthquake (PCE) model, which assesses maximum recurrence rates individual seismogenic...

We propose a seismic risk assessment for Taiwan, focusing on establishing building exposure database, selecting appropriate fragility curves, and analyzing hazards. To build the we utilized data from multiple sources, including government statistical records, tax data, footprints extracted satellite imagery. By integrating these datasets, generated comprehensive repository containing locations, structural types, storey, construction ages. For each type, curves describe vulnerability as...

We explore how Coulomb stress transfer and viscoelastic relaxation control afterslip aftershocks in a continental thrust fault system. The 1999 September 21 Mw = 7.6 Chi-Chi shock is typical of ramp-décollement systems throughout the world, so inferences drawn from this uniquely well-recorded event may be widely applicable. First, we find that spatial depth distribution their focal mechanisms are consistent with calculated changes imparted by coseismic rupture. Some 61 per cent M ≥ 2 83 4...

Abstract Earthquake forecasting, combined with precise ground-shaking estimations, plays a pivotal role in safeguarding public safety, fortifying infrastructure, and bolstering the preparedness of emergency services. This study introduces comprehensive workflow that integrates epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model preselected ground-motion (GMM), facilitating accurate short-term forecasting intensity (GSI), which is crucial for effective earthquake warning. First, an analysis was...

Abstract This study examined the relationship between radon ( 222 Rn) concentrations in seawater and crustal activity Yatsushiro Sea by investigating submarine fault zone situated at southern end of Futagawa–Hinagu zone, activated 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (M7.3). We conducted an analysis Rn concentration samples bottom water just above seafloor pore sediments, utilizing multiple piston cores from Hakuho Maru Expedition KH18-3. The findings revealed significantly elevated central sites Sea,...

Abstract. While disaster studies researchers usually view risk as a function of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, few have systematically examined the relationships among various physical socioeconomic determinants underlying disasters, fewer done so through seismic analysis. In context 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, this study constructs three statistical models to test different that affect fatality at village level, including exposure population fragile buildings, demographic...

Abstract. Seafloor irregularities influence rupture behavior along the subducting slab and in overriding plate, thus affecting earthquake cycles. Whether seafloor increase likelihood of large earthquakes a subduction zone remains contested, partially due to focus put either on fault development or pattern. Here, we simulate with irregularity resulting deformation pattern plate using discrete element method. Our simulations illustrate three major systems: megathrust, splay backthrust faults....

Abstract The 2010 M L 6.4 Jiashian earthquake struck southern Taiwan and caused some damage due to the strong ground shaking. Since epicenter is located in a relatively low background seismicity area, we want investigate rate changes associated with main shock by applying region‐time‐length pattern informatics algorithms. Both temporal spatial results exhibit signatures of abnormal change related seismic activation quiescence prior shock. In addition, patch coincides region Coulomb stress...