ABSTRACT The campaign leading to the 2016 US presidential election included a number of unconventional forms rhetoric. In earlier analyses, it was claimed that Trump victory could be seen as form protest voting. This article analyzes determinants voters’ choices investigate validity this claim. Based on sample Cooperative Congressional Election Survey, our analyses suggest vote cannot explained by lack trust in politics or low levels satisfaction with democracy, would assumed given extant...

Low levels of political trust are associated with a preference for protest parties. Some authors have argued that in this manner parties indirectly contribute to the stability electoral democracy, functioning as ‘safety valve’ discontent. In article, we investigate relationship between voting and dynamic perspective, relying on five-year Belgian panel study. We confirm citizens low more likely vote Additionally, point out decreasing significantly increase probability party, even controlling...

It is generally assumed that civic education efforts will have a positive effect on the political attitudes and behaviors of adolescents young adults. In present study, we distinguish among formal education, an open classroom climate, active learning strategies, explore their relation with interest, efficacy, trust, participation. To analyze these relations, rely results two-year panel study late in Belgium. The indicate (classroom instruction) strategies (school council membership and, to...

Abstract Successive studies have found a persistent gender gap in political knowledge. Despite much international research, this has remained largely impervious to explanation. A promising line of recent inquiry been the low levels women's elected representation many democracies. We test hypothesis that higher will increase Using two large, comparative data sets, we find proportion women representatives at time survey no significant effect on gap. By contrast, there is strong and long‐term...

Abstract The extent to which citizens comply with newly enacted public health measures such as social distancing or lockdowns strongly affects the propagation of virus and number deaths from COVID-19. It is however very difficult identify non-compliance through survey research because claiming follow rules socially desirable. Using three experiments, we examine efficacy different ‘face-saving’ questions that aim reduce desirability in measurement compliance measures. Our treatments soften...

The rise of populist radical right parties fuels a discussion about the roots their success. Existing research has demonstrated relevance gender, education and income for explaining far-right vote. present study contributes to aforementioned debate by focusing on role religiosity. data collected in eighth round European Social Survey (2016) allow examining more detail political attendance at religious services other measures devotion. This focuses particular 15 countries, 11 from Western...

Abstract A large and growing body of research draws attention to the rising salience socio‐cultural identitarian issues and, potentially, emergence a new political cleavage that divides voters on those issues. However, micro‐foundations this transformation are less well understood. Here we take voter‐perspective evaluate how party competition has been restructured in eyes voter. We leverage measures citizens’ self‐reported probabilities vote for alternative parties European Election Study...

Party identification traditionally is seen as an important linkage mechanism, connecting voters to the party system. Previous analyses have suggested that level of identity in decline Germany, and this article first expands previous observations with more recent data. These suggest erosion continues up present time. An age–period–cohort analysis panel data SOEP suggests period effects are significantly negative. Furthermore, it can be observed throughout 1992–2009 observation period,...

A defining characteristic of second-order elections is that voters base their decision on considerations were developed for a different policy level. Therefore, this kind does not contribute to the quality democratic representation. Municipal are often considered as elections. In article, we use data from an exit poll (n = 4,591) held during 2012 municipal in Belgium. Results suggest although predominantly invoke local aspects determining vote choice, still three-quarters votes same party...

Abstract Scholars have investigated the characteristics of volatile voters ever since first voter surveys were carried out and they paid specific attention to role political sophistication on vote switching. Nevertheless, exact nature this relationship is still unclear. With increasing volatility over past decades question has furthermore grown in relevance. Is growing unpredictability elections mostly driven by sophisticated making well‐considered choices or balance power hands...

Turnout rates are in decline advanced democracies, but the consequences of this trend for inequalities participation have not yet been investigated a large, comparative study. In article, we investigate educational six countries. First, examine whether Tingsten’s law dispersion holds and decreasing turnout imply more unequal participation. Subsequently, gradual over-time process declining leads to biased We show that gap between low- high-educated citizens is growing. This pattern strongest...

Studies of citizens’ compliance with COVID-19 preventive measures routinely rely on survey data. While such data are essential, public health restrictions provide clear signals what is socially desirable in this context, creating a potential source response bias self-reported compliance. In research, we examine whether the results guilt-free strategy recently proposed to lessen constraint generalizable across twelve countries, and treatment effect varies subgroups. Our findings show that...

There is a strong ongoing debate about the impact of higher education experiences on political attitudes and behaviours. While some authors assume direct socialisation effect educational experience, others have argued that should be seen as mere proxy variable for socio-economic status pre-adult experiences. In this article we use 5-year Belgian panel study tracked respondents between ages 16 21. Using hierarchical linear model repeated measurements, are able to demonstrate differences with...

A large body of literature has investigated the factors that lead to abstention on one hand or vote volatility other hand. We argue in this paper most fruitful approach is simultaneously consider exit, voice, and loyalty options. The analyses are based data from Comparative Study Electoral Systems cover a broad set advanced democracies. demonstrate while party switchers abstainers have lot common, switching parties can be considered more positive choice. Most importantly, contrary what...

The economic voting literature has been dominated by the incumbency-oriented hypothesis, in which voters reward or punish governments at ballot box according to nation's performance. alternative (policy-oriented) favor parties that are closest their issue position(s), neglected this literature. This article explores policy with respect an archetypal issue—unemployment. Voters who lower unemployment should tend vote for left parties, since they “own” issue. Examining a large time-series...

Abstract For a number of decades now, scholars have been indicating that ties between citizens and parties are eroding. As consequence, electoral behaviour has become more volatile also unpredictable. The consequences this process change on parties’ strategic have, however, received little attention. In article, the impact dealignment is examined, with focus being extent to which responsive mean voter. expectation allowing ‘to move around freely’ leads hypothesis in context dealignment....

Using recall questions in cross-sectional electoral survey research entails a high level of measurement error. Comparing data from Belgium, the Netherlands, and Germany, we observe that information leads to an important underestimation voter volatility, compared with are based on panel observations. While political sophistication helps us explain error, overall effects limited. A direct comparison between models observations shows using investigate effect volatility does not lead...

The increase of electoral volatility in established democracies is typically interpreted as proof that short-term factors are increasingly important determinants vote choice. empirical evidence to support this assertion, however, relatively weak. This paper addresses question by investigating the impact both long- and on choices stable volatile voters Britain. Analysis three British election panels (1992–1997, 1997–2001 2005–2010) indicates – especially economic issues do have more weight...

Citizens who voted for a party that won the election are more satisfied with democracy than those did not. This winner–loser gap has recently been found to vary quality of electoral democracy: higher democracy, smaller gap. However, we do not know what drives this relationship. Is it driven by losers, winners, or both? And Why? Linking our work literature on motivated reasoning and macro salience benefiting from Comparative Study Electoral Systems project—covering 163 elections in 51...

In most established democracies, trends in political trust recent decades have fluctuated, but not declined strongly. Citizens' democratic attitudes many countries even proven to be resilient the face of Great Recession. Such contrast sharply with observation a gradual and continued decline Australian's politics since 2007. Using combined file seven Australian Election Study surveys, employing exactly comparable questions methodologies, this paper tests two explanations – government...

Parties’ ideological responsiveness to public opinion is a key finding in the party politics literature. Leveraging longitudinal coverage of and position data, this research note shows that findings left-right are limited specific time period. We find since mid-1990s, shifts no longer significantly associated with changes on same dimension. By examining over-time more issue dimensions, we also uncover at about time, pattern issues related nationalism/immigration has emerged. These highlight...