A5028075655- Climate variability and models
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Climate change and permafrost
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Soil erosion and sediment transport
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Plant Ecology and Soil Science
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Tree-ring climate responses
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Agricultural risk and resilience
- Geological Studies and Exploration
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Ocean Acidification Effects and Responses
- French Urban and Social Studies
- Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Environmental Impact and Sustainability
Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique
2015-2025
Université de Toulouse
2017-2025
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
2015-2025
Géosciences Environnement Toulouse
2019-2024
Climat, Environnement, Couplages et Incertitudes
2018-2024
Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques
2019
Laboratoire Sciences de l'Univers au Cerfacs
2008-2019
University of California, Los Angeles
2009-2013
University of California System
2010-2011
NOAA Oceanic and Atmospheric Research
2009
Abstract Two downscaling methods designed for the study of hydrological impact climate change on Seine basin in France are tested present climate. First, a multivariate statistical (SD) methodology based weather typing and conditional resampling is described. Then, bias correction technique dynamical quantile–quantile mapping introduced. To evaluate end‐to‐end SD methodology, atmospheric forcing derived from large‐scale circulation (LSC) ERA40 reanalysis by used to force model. Simulated...
In 2016, France, one of the leading wheat-producing and wheat-exporting regions in world suffered its most extreme yield loss over half a century. Yet, forecasting systems failed to anticipate this event. We show that unprecedented event is new type compound with conjunction abnormally warm temperatures late autumn wet conditions following spring. A binomial logistic regression accounting for fall spring able capture key events since 1959. Based on climate projections, we led 2016 wheat are...
Abstract Finer grids in global climate models could lead to an improvement the simulation of precipitation extremes. We assess influence on model performance increasing spatial resolution by evaluating pairs high‐ and low‐resolution forced atmospheric simulations from six (generally latest CMIP6 version) a common 1° × grid. The differences tuning between lower higher versions are as limited possible, which allows be assessed exclusively. focus 1985–2014 climatology annual extremes daily over...
The main objective of this paper is to study the impacts climate change on hydrological cycle French river basins, including different uncertainties at stake. In particular, relative importance modeling uncertainty versus that downscaling investigated. An ensemble scenarios are statistically downscaled in order force a hydrometeorological model over France. Then, changes variables studied. Despite large linked models, some robust signals already appear middle 21st century. decrease mean...
This study focuses on future very hot summers associated with severe heatwaves and record-breaking temperatures in France. Daily temperature observations a pair of historical scenario (greenhouse gas radiative concentration pathway 8.5) simulations the high-resolution (∼12.5 km) ALADIN regional climate model provide robust framework to examine spatial distribution these extreme events their 21st century evolution.
Abstract. Building on CMIP6 climate simulations, updated global and regional observations, recently introduced statistical methods, we provide an assessment of past future warming over France. Following the IPCC AR6 recent global-scale studies, combine model results with observations to constrain change at scale. Over mainland France, forced in 2020 respect 1900–1930 is assessed be 1.66 [1.41 1.90] ∘C, i.e., upper range estimates, almost entirely human-induced. A refined view seasonality...
A multivariate statistical downscaling methodology is implemented to generate local precipitation and temperature series at different sites based on the results from a variable resolution general circulation model. It starts regional climate properties establish discriminating weather types for chosen variable, in this case. Intratype variations of relevant forcing parameters are then taken into account by regression using distances given day as predictors. The final step consists...
Abstract The large spread of the response to anthropogenic forcing simulated by state-of-the-art climate models in Arctic is investigated. A feedback analysis framework specific developed address this issue. shows that a part change explained longwave parameter. negative parameter turn mainly due variations temperature feedback. vertical structure atmosphere Arctic, characterized surface inversion during wintertime, exerts strong control on and consequently change. Most current likely...
Abstract Multimodel ensembles are the main way to deal with model uncertainties in climate projections. However, interdependencies between models that often share entire components make it difficult combine their results a satisfactory way. In this study, how replication of (atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice) impacts proximity is quantified precisely, terms climatological means future changes. A clear relationship exists number shared by results. Even impact single component generally...
Abstract A statistical downscaling approach for precipitation in France based on the analog method and its evaluation different combinations of predictors is described, with focus transferability to future climate. First, realism downscaled present‐day climatology interannual variability from four reanalyses assessed. Satisfactory results are obtained, but elaborated do not lead major consistent across‐reanalyses improvements. The then evaluated capacity capture trends last decades. As...
Abstract. This paper describes the impact of various changes made to Safran–Isba–Modcou (SIM) hydrometeorological system and demonstrates that new version model performs better than previous one by making comparisons with observations daily river flows snow depths. SIM was developed put into operational service at Météo-France in early 2000s. The application is dedicated monitoring water resources can therefore help drought or flood risk forecasting on French territory. complex combines...
Changes in summer evapotranspiration over central and eastern Europe are very uncertain the World Climate Research Programme's (WRCP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi‐model data set. We show that response of future climate this area is strongly linked to way models represent respective role soil moisture radiative energy at surface on interannual time scale present climate. Actually, for which limiting effect upon already large generally responds by a decrease...
Abstract. In this article, multi-decadal variations in the French hydroclimate are investigated, with a specific focus on river flows. Based long observed series, it is shown that flows France generally exhibit large instrumental period (defined study as from late 19th century to present), especially spring. Differences of means between 21 yr periods 20th 40% indeed found for many gauging stations. Multi-decadal spring flow associated precipitation and temperature. These themselves be driven...