During the period 2018–2020, Europe experienced a series of hot and dry weather conditions with significant socioeconomic environmental consequences. Yet, extremity these multi-year is not recognized. Here, we provide comprehensive spatio-temporal assessment drought hazard over by benchmarking past exceptional events during from 1766 to 2020. We identified 2018–2020 event as new benchmark having an unprecedented intensity that persisted for more than 2 years, exhibiting mean areal coverage...

Abstract Accurately predicting regional-scale water fluxes and states remains a challenging task in contemporary hydrology. Coping with this grand challenge requires, among other things, model that makes reliable predictions across scales, locations, variables than those used for parameter estimation. In study, the mesoscale hydrologic (mHM) parameterized multiscale regionalization technique is comprehensively tested 400 European river basins. The states, constrained using observed...

Abstract. There is growing evidence that climate change will alter water availability in Europe. Here, we investigate how hydrological low flows are affected under different levels of future global warming (i.e. 1.5, 2, and 3 K with respect to the pre-industrial period) rivers a contributing area more than 1000 km2. The analysis based on multi-model ensemble 45 simulations three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP6.0, RCP8.5), five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5...

The 2003 drought event in Europe had major implications on many societal sectors, including energy production, health, forestry and agriculture. reduced availability of water accompanied by high temperatures led to substantial economic losses the order 1.5 Billion Euros, agriculture alone. Furthermore, soil droughts have considerable impacts ecosystems, forest fires management. Monitoring near real-time at high-resolution, i.e., 4 × km2, enables managers mitigate impact these extreme events....

Abstract Land surface models incorporate a large number of process descriptions, containing multitude parameters. These parameters are typically read from tabulated input files. Some these might be fixed numbers in the computer code though, which hinder model agility during calibration. Here we identified 139 hard‐coded Noah land with multiple options (Noah‐MP). We performed Sobol' global sensitivity analysis Noah‐MP for specific set options, includes 42 out 71 standard and 75 The...

Abstract Anomalies in the frequency of river floods, i.e., flood-rich or -poor periods, cause biases flood risk estimates and thus make climate adaptation measures less efficient. While observations have recently confirmed presence anomalies Europe, their exact causes are not clear. Here we analyse streamflow during 1960-2010 to show that shifts generation processes contribute more occurrence regional than changes extreme rainfall. A shift from rain on dry soil wet events by 5% increased...

Abstract Despite considerable advances in flood forecasting during recent decades, state-of-the-art, operational early warning systems (FEWS) need to be equipped with near-real-time inundation and impact forecasts their associated uncertainties. High-resolution, impact-based provide insightful information for better-informed decisions tailored emergency actions. Valuable can now provided local authorities risk-based decision-making by utilising high-resolution lead-time maps potential...

Abstract. Land surface and hydrologic models (LSMs/HMs) are used at diverse spatial resolutions ranging from catchment-scale (1–10 km) to global-scale (over 50 applications. Applying the same model structure different scales requires that estimates similar fluxes independent of chosen resolution, i.e., fulfills a flux-matching condition across scales. An analysis state-of-the-art LSMs HMs reveals most do not have consistent parameter fields. Multiple experiments with mHM, Noah-MP,...

Abstract Severe river floods often result in huge economic losses and fatalities. Since 1980, almost 1500 such events have been reported Europe. This study investigates climate change impacts on European under 1.5, 2, 3 K global warming. The are assessed employing a multi-model ensemble containing three hydrologic models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, PCR-GLOBWB) forced by five CMIP5 general circulation (GCMs) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 6.0, 8.5). is unprecedented with respect to...

Abstract Droughts diminish crop yields and can lead to severe socioeconomic damages humanitarian crises (e.g., famine). Hydrologic predictions of soil moisture droughts several months in advance are needed mitigate the impact these extreme events. In this study, performance a seasonal hydrologic prediction system for drought forecasting over Europe is investigated. The based on meteorological forecasts North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) that used drive mesoscale model (mHM). skill...

Abstract Simulations of water fluxes at high spatial resolution that consistently cover historical observations, seasonal forecasts, and future climate projections are key to providing services aimed supporting operational strategic planning, developing mitigation adaptation policies. The End-to-end Demonstrator for improved decision-making in the sector Europe (EDgE) is a proof-of-concept project funded by Copernicus Climate Change Service program addresses these requirements combining...

Abstract This study presents diagnostic evaluation of two large‐domain hydrologic models: the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) over contiguous United States (CONUS). These models have been calibrated using Multiscale Parameter Regionalization scheme in a joint, multibasin approach 492 medium‐sized basins across CONUS yielding spatially distributed model parameter sets. The mHM simulations are used as performance benchmark to examine deficiencies VIC...

Abstract Environmental models tend to require increasing computational time and resources as physical process descriptions are improved or new incorporated. Many‐query applications such sensitivity analysis model calibration usually a large number of evaluations leading high demand. This often limits the feasibility rigorous analyses. Here we present fully automated sequential screening method that selects only informative parameters for given output. The requires is approximately 10 times...

Abstract. Routing streamflow through a river network is fundamental requirement to verify lateral water fluxes simulated by hydrologic and land surface models. River routing performed at diverse resolutions ranging from few kilometres 1∘. The presented multiscale model mRM calculates spatial temporal resolutions. solves the kinematic wave equation using finite difference scheme. An adaptive time stepping scheme fulfilling numerical stability criterion introduced in this study compared...

Abstract. Germany's 2018–2020 consecutive drought events resulted in multiple sectors – including agriculture, forestry, water management, energy production, and transport being impacted. High-resolution information systems are key to preparedness for such extreme events. This study evaluates the new setup of one-kilometer German monitor (GDM), which is based on daily soil moisture (SM) simulations from mesoscale hydrological model (mHM). The simulated SM compared against a set diverse...

Abstract In 2022, Europe faced an extensive summer drought with severe socioeconomic consequences. Quantifying the influence of human-induced climate change on such extreme event can help prepare for future droughts. Here, by combining observations and model outputs hydrological land-surface simulations, we show that Central Southern experienced highest observed total water storage deficit since satellite began in 2002, probably representing most widespread soil moisture past six decades....

Abstract Hydrological forecasts with a high temporal and spatial resolution are required to provide the level of information needed by end users. So far high-resolution multimodel seasonal hydrological have been unavailable due 1) lack availability meteorological forecasts, requiring downscaling; 2) mismatch between provided forecast user needs; 3) consistency model outputs generate forecasts. As part End-to-End Demonstrator for Improved Decision Making in Water Sector Europe (EDgE) project...

Abstract. Heterogeneity of landscape features like terrain, soil, and vegetation properties affects the partitioning water energy. However, it remains unclear to what extent an explicit representation this heterogeneity at sub-grid scale distributed hydrological models can improve consistency robustness such models. In study, process complexity arising from topography was incorporated into mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM). Seven study catchments across Europe were used test whether (1)...

There exists an increasing need to understand the impact of climate change on hydrological extremes flood and drought, collectively referred as 'hydro-hazards'. At present, current methodology are limited in their scope, particularly with respect inadequate representation uncertainty hydroclimatological modelling chain. This paper proposes spatially consistent comprehensive methodological framework for identification compound hydro-hazard hotspots – where concurrent increase mean annual...

Abstract Subsurface contamination due to excessive nutrient surpluses is a persistent and widespread problem in agricultural areas across Europe. The vulnerability of particular location pollution from reactive solutes, such as nitrate, determined by the interplay between hydrologic transport biogeochemical transformations. Current studies on controls subsurface do not consider transient behaviour dynamics root zone. Here, using state-of-the-art simulations driven observed hydroclimatic...

Abstract Drought is one of the most extreme climatic events in South Asia (SA) and has affected 1.44 billion people last 68 years. The agriculture many areas this region highly dependent on rainfall, which increases vulnerability to drought. To mitigate impact drought food security, study aims develop a state-of-the-art system for monitoring agricultural over SA at high spatial resolution (0.25 ∘ ) near real-time. This currently focuses rain-fed area, irrigation not incorporated. open...

Abstract. Distributed environmental models such as land surface (LSMs) require model parameters in each spatial modeling unit (e.g., grid cell), thereby leading to a high-dimensional parameter space. One approach decrease the dimensionality of space these is use regularization techniques. highly efficient technique multiscale regionalization (MPR) framework that translates high-resolution predictor variables soil textural properties) into porosity) via transfer functions (TFs) and upscaling...

Abstract Optimization of spatially consistent parameter fields is believed to increase the robustness estimation and its transferability ungauged basins. The current paper extends previous multi‐objective studies by exploring value both multi‐basin spatial pattern calibration distributed hydrologic models as compared single‐basin single‐objective model calibrations, with respect tradeoffs, performance transferability. mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM) used across six large central European...

Abstract. Crop models routinely use meteorological variations to estimate crop yield. Soil moisture, however, is the primary source of water for plant growth. The aim this study investigate intraseasonal predictability soil moisture silage maize yield in Germany. We also evaluate how approaches considering perform compare those using only variables. Silage one most widely cultivated crops Germany because it used as a main biomass supplier energy production course German Energiewende (energy...