A5020134520- Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Evolution and Paleontology Studies
- Wildlife Ecology and Conservation
- Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- Isotope Analysis in Ecology
- Pleistocene-Era Hominins and Archaeology
- Genetic diversity and population structure
- Animal Ecology and Behavior Studies
- Geochemistry and Geologic Mapping
- Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
- Tree-ring climate responses
- Plant and animal studies
- Marine and environmental studies
- Microbial Community Ecology and Physiology
- Environmental DNA in Biodiversity Studies
- Geological Modeling and Analysis
- Archaeological Research and Protection
- Bat Biology and Ecology Studies
- Geological formations and processes
- Morphological variations and asymmetry
- Archaeology and ancient environmental studies
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- Mining and Gasification Technologies
- Ecology and biodiversity studies
University of California, Merced
2016-2025
University of Wisconsin–Madison
2011-2023
University of South Dakota
2018
University of New Mexico
2016
Google (United States)
2016
Stanford University
2007-2010
Humboldt State University
2006
“Space-for-time” substitution is widely used in biodiversity modeling to infer past or future trajectories of ecological systems from contemporary spatial patterns. However, the foundational assumption—that drivers gradients species composition also drive temporal changes diversity—rarely tested. Here, we empirically test space-for-time assumption by constructing orthogonal datasets compositional turnover plant taxa and climatic dissimilarity through time across space Late Quaternary pollen...
Deciphering the evolution of global climate from end Last Glacial Maximum approximately 19 ka to early Holocene 11 presents an outstanding opportunity for understanding transient response Earth's system external and internal forcings. During this interval warming, decay ice sheets caused mean sea level rise by 80 m; terrestrial marine ecosystems experienced large disturbances range shifts; perturbations carbon cycle resulted in a net release greenhouse gases CO(2) CH(4) atmosphere; changes...
Abstract The Neotoma Paleoecology Database is a community-curated data resource that supports interdisciplinary global change research by enabling broad-scale studies of taxon and community diversity, distributions, dynamics during the large environmental changes past. By consolidating many kinds into common repository, lowers costs paleodata management, makes paleoecological openly available, offers high-quality, curated resource. Neotoma’s distributed scientific governance model flexible...
Abstract Empirically derived species distributions models ( SDM s) are increasingly relied upon to forecast vulnerabilities future climate change. However, many of the assumptions s may be violated when they used project across significant change events. In particular, 's in theory assume stable fundamental niches, but practice, realized niches. The assumption a fixed niche relative variables remains unlikely for various reasons, particularly if novel climates open up currently unavailable...
Multiple episodes of rapid and gradual climatic changes influenced the evolution ecology mammalian species communities throughout Cenozoic. Climatic change abundance, genetic diversity, morphology, geographic ranges individual species. Within these responses interacted to catalyze immigration, speciation, extinction. Combined they affected long-term patterns community stability, functional turnover, biotic diversity. Although relative influence climate on particular evolutionary processes is...
Community ecology and paleoecology are both concerned with the composition structure of biotic assemblages but largely disconnected. focuses on existing species recently has begun to integrate history (phylogeny continental or intercontinental dispersal) constrain community processes. This division left a “missing middle”: Ecological environmental processes occurring timescales from decades millennia not yet fully incorporated into ecology. Quaternary wealth data documenting ecological...
There is an urgent need to understand species and community responses climatic ecological changes predict biodiversity patterns given anticipated global change. The current distribution of the environment provide a limited perspective study responses; therefore, past environmental must be examined. rapid development niche models (ENMs) their use in reconstructing distributions has facilitated inclusion observations into predictive models. Paleodata offer opportunity test ability ENMs...
Summary 1. Abrupt changes and regime shifts are common phenomena in terrestrial ecological records spanning centuries to millennia, thus offering a rich opportunity study the patterns drivers of abrupt change. 2. Because Quaternary climate also often were abrupt, critical research question is distinguish between extrinsic versus intrinsic changes, i.e. those externally driven by abruptly changing climates, resulting from thresholds, tipping points, other nonlinear responses systems...
Abstract Aim Range shift is a relatively well‐understood response to climate change, but our ability predict shifts limited. Two factors that may cause variation in range across species are dispersal and varying rates of change through time space. Here, we assess patterns during the late Quaternary estimate how velocity affect magnitude change. Location North America. Methods We hindcast distribution models for 122 American mammals five times over past 17,000 years forecast them two future...
Environmental conditions, dispersal lags, and interactions among species are major factors structuring communities through time across space. Ecologists have emphasized the importance of biotic in determining local patterns association. In contrast, abiotic limits, limitation, historical commonly been invoked to explain community structure at larger spatiotemporal scales, such as appearance late Pleistocene no‐analog or latitudinal gradients richness both modern fossil assemblages....
Abstract The coupling between community composition and climate change spans a gradient from no lags to strong lags. no‐lag hypothesis is the foundation of many ecophysiological models, correlative species distribution modelling reconstruction approaches. Simple lag hypotheses have become prominent in disequilibrium ecology, proposing that communities track following fixed function or with time delay. However, more complex dynamics are possible may lead memory effects alternate unstable...
Species distribution models (SDMs) assume species exist in isolation and do not influence one another's distributions, thus potentially limiting their ability to predict biodiversity patterns. Community-level (CLMs) capitalize on co-occurrences fit shared environmental responses of communities, therefore may result more robust transferable models. Here, we conduct a controlled comparison five paired SDMs CLMs across changing climates, using palaeoclimatic simulations fossil-pollen records...
Large mammals are at high risk of extinction globally. To understand the consequences their demise for community assembly, we tracked structure through end-Pleistocene megafaunal in North America. We decomposed effects biotic and abiotic factors by analyzing co-occurrence within mutual ranges species pairs. Although shifting climate drove an increase niche overlap, decreased, signaling shifts interactions. Furthermore, effect on remained constant over time while decreased. Biotic apparently...
Future climates are projected to be highly novel relative recent climates. Climate novelty challenges models that correlate ecological patterns climate variables and then use these relationships forecast responses future change. Here, we quantify the magnitude significance of by comparing it over past 21,000 years in North America. We between model performance derived from fossil pollen record eastern America estimate expected decrease predictive skill forecasting as increases. show that,...
Projecting the future composition and function of communities is a major challenge, there an urgent need to develop, improve, test predictive capacity ecological models under different climate states. We tested effect on spatial patterns plant community over past 21 000 yr, focusing whether relationships between environmental distance compositional dissimilarity are stable time. used network fossil‐pollen sites in eastern North America, combined with paleoclimate simulations from Last...
Abstract Community‐level models (CLMs) consider multiple, co‐occurring species in model fitting and are lesser known alternatives to distribution (SDMs) for analysing predicting biodiversity patterns. simultaneously multiple species, including rare while reducing overfitting implicitly considering drivers of co‐occurrence. Many CLMs direct extensions well‐known SDMs therefore should be familiar ecologists. However, remain underutilized, there have been few tests their potential benefits no...