The contribution of this paper is twofold: 1) it develops a replicable socio-hydrology-inspired model that elicits agents' preferences while accounting for the two-way feedbacks between complex human and water systems; 2) integrates resultant socio-hydrology into robustness-based frameworks to inform adoption policies show satisfactory performance under most plausible futures. used produce database representing multiple futures quantifies uncertainty regarding scenario assumptions...

Despite major recent advances in socio-hydrology and hydroeconomics research, interdisciplinary methods models for water policy assessment remain largely concealed to the academic arena. Most river basin authorities still base decision-making on inputs from hydrologic Decision Support Systems (DSS), have limited information economic costs that policies may impose economy. This paper presents a time-variant hierarchical framework connects module an by means of two-way feedback protocols. The...

Farmers' adaptation responses to water conservation policies involve a complex decision-making process that depends on range of criteria, including availability, profits, and risks, which are in turn dependent (and might have consequences at) broader scale processes systems the macroeconomy. The non-consideration interactions between within natural human often leads unforeseen sub-optimal policy design. There exists fundamental need improve our understanding human-water (e.g. hydro-economic)...

This paper assesses the feasibility and robustness of an index-based insurance scheme against hydrological droughts under climate change. To this end, we develop a grand ensemble that samples both modeling scenario uncertainty in estimation risk premium, so to reveal potential unfavorable surprises minimize regret design proposed scheme. The combines four microeconomic models seven GAMLSS models, which are run for three alternative change scenarios: stationary climate/no change, RCP 2.6,...

This paper compares the economic performance of a dam construction strategy versus no (i.e., statu quo) under multiple scenarios and using multimodel ensemble three microeconomic mathematical programming models. The result is database simulations representing plausible futures which offers information on uncertainty regarding scenario assumptions model structure (through spread). Using an iterative robust decision-making framework, simulation results are coupled with experts’ knowledge...

Download This Paper Open PDF in Browser Add to My Library Share: Permalink Using these links will ensure access this page indefinitely Copy URL DOI

Scientists and decision-makers globally confront systemic challenges posed by the intertwining issues of water scarcity climate change. These give rise to cascading impacts across ecological socioeconomic systems, often exacerbated feedback loops unforeseeable consequences (UNDRR, 2021). As non-linear changes loom, reliance on consolidative modeling becomes dangerous, risking activation disastrous tipping points with severe implications for both nature humans (Kreibich et al., 2022). The...

In the Anthropocene, geological epoch when human activity has started to have a significant impact on planet's climate and ecosystems, understanding, forecasting, treatment of key emerging phenomena is not possible without explicitly including behavior responses in models. As additional ecological systems are connected, uncertainties across cascade amplify, challenging our forecasting capacities. All above calls for major renovations current modeling approaches better integrate agency into...

Abstract. This paper develops an actionable interdisciplinary model that thoroughly quantifies and assesses uncertainties in water resources allocation under climate change. To achieve this objective, we develop innovative socio-ecological grand ensemble combines climate, hydrological, microeconomic experiments with a widely used Decision Support System for planning management. Each system is populated multiple models (multi-model), which use to evaluate the impacts of climatic scenarios...

Numerical models play a vital role in representing geohydrological processes and informing the management of surface subsurface water flows. Yet, these have limitations, such as not being able to determine behavior responses users, resulting pressures on bodies via technological, land allocation choices. Microeconomic can aptly complement due their ability quantify use Several studies seeked combine strengths human system using modular or holistic couplings. In recent review, assess 198...

Water reallocations have costs to the users of water, or abatement (e.g., charges designed marginally increase environmental water flows), but also nontrivial institutional transaction incurred develop institutions and organizations support enforce reallocations). However, studies are very limited those available do not integrate measurements, which constrains our ability assess performance reallocation. This paper presents first integrated analysis The is illustrated with an application...

Abstract. This paper develops an actionable interdisciplinary model that quantifies and assesses uncertainties in water resource allocation under climate change. To achieve this objective, we develop innovative socio-ecological grand ensemble combines climate, hydrological, microeconomic experiments with a widely used decision support system for planning management. Each is populated multiple models (multi-model), which use to evaluate the impacts of scenarios policies (multi-scenario,...

<p><strong>Abstract</strong></p><p>Growing population and water demand (e.g for irrigation, supply) the vagaries of climate, now aggravated due to climate change, intensify societal exposure extremes economic environmental impact floods droughts in Mediterranean basins. The Douro River Basin Authority (DRBA) central Spain is assessing whether build a dam Cega Catchment (Spain) with twofold objective substituting irrigation...