This paper proposes a probabilistic power flow analysis technique based on the stochastic response surface method. The probability distributions and statistics of responses can be accurately efficiently estimated by proposed method without using series expansions such as Gram-Charlier, Cornish-Fisher, or Edgeworth series. continuous input variables following normal loads non-normal photovoltaic generation wind their multiple correlations easily modeled. correctness, effectiveness...

This paper proposes a multi-data driven hybrid learning method for weekly photovoltaic (PV) power scenario forecast that is coordinately by weather forecasts and historical PV output data. Patterns of data information are simultaneously captured to ensure the quality generated scenarios. By combining bicubic interpolation bidirectional long-short term memory (BiLSTM), super resolution algorithm first presented enhance time from three hours one hour increase precision forecasting. A...

With the increase in wind generation installed capacity, uncertainty of power has brought great challenges to accommodation. The accurate assessment result accommodation capability (WPAC) important guiding significance formulation day-ahead trading plan for multi-energy microgrid (MEMG). This paper proposes a WPAC method MEMG. A liner energy flow model is first derived based on equivalent infinitesimal replacement and mild assumption that supply temperatures different heat load nodes are...

This paper proposes a noncooperative game-based planning method for microgrid (MG) considering the interconnection between developing and developed privately-owned clustered MGs on an island. A game with imperfect information is designed to regulate decision-making in operating strategies rational MG owners. The optimization models both are presented. Different levels of maturity development modeled by diverse objective functions constraints, while data privacy preserved through prior...

A novel concept called the committed carbon emission operation region (CCEOR) of integrated energy systems (IESs) is proposed in this paper, which provides a powerful tool for low-carbon analyses (LCOA) IESs. The CCEOR IESs first defined, and model then by considering uncertainty renewable power outputs characteristics sequential operation. Based on nonlinear constraint transformation method distributionally robust chance-constrained (DRCC) approach, reformulation developed to convert...

The variation and uncertainty of renewable energy potentially impact power system stability. This article proposes an efficient evaluation algorithm to evaluate the influence on dynamic performance. applies probabilistic collocation method (PCM), which greatly reduces simulation burden without compromising result accuracy, approximate results. proposed also considers correlation among adjacent generators by using Copula function, is suitable model nonlinear correlations. Additionally, this...

This paper proposes an optimal planning method for the dual-zero microgrid (DZMG) on island. The DZMG is off-grid that exchanges zero power with entity grids and operates in a net-zero carbon emission mode. A operating strategy designed considering positive interaction between <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">$\rm CO_{2}$ </tex-math></inline-formula> flow energy flow. multi-scale circulation...

A probabilistic power-flow analysis method for power systems with tidal sources is presented in this paper. The regularity of modeled using a k-means clustering technique and the randomness by nonparametric kernel density estimation method. stochastic sampling also developed to generate random samples time series Monte Carlo based analysis. influence current generation on flows then evaluated quantified considering both power. measured speed data two different locations Florida Alaska...

This paper proposes a chronological probability model of photovoltaic (PV) generation on the basis conditional and nonparametric kernel density estimation. In addition to randomness PV power, correlation powers between adjacent time points uncertainty start end moments output can be represented. The proposed employed produce random power series curve using stochastic sampling method. data three generators in different regions with distinct weather conditions 34-node distribution network are...

Hydrogen enriched compressed natural gas provides a promising way of decarbonizing integrated electricity and systems. Considering the flexible characteristics hydrogen gas, this paper proposes an optimal dispatch method for systems incorporating injection. A blending transmission model is developed gas. The dynamic line pack are captured considering impacts injection on pipeline parameters. From overall system operation aspect, detailed energy flow involving pipeline, compressor, nodal...

This paper proposes a bi-level programming-based optimization method to determine the sizing of tidal current farm (TCF) and arrangement turbines reaching minimized comprehensive generation cost power. Not only characteristics velocity wake effects but also economic costs environmental benefits brought by TCF integration are all incorporated in proposed method. The includes power output model that can capture turbine effects, takes into account penalty greenhouse gas emissions, operation...

This paper proposes a bilevel programming model for the planning of tidal current farms (TCFs). The micrositing strategy turbines (TCTs) and collector system scheme are coordinated to achieve better balance energy yields, TCF capital investment power systems economic operation using proposed method. output is modeled considering characteristics velocity wake effects. A consisting one upper level two lower models developed maximize comprehensive profit. Not only maintenance costs TCTs...

A novel two-tier wind power time series model considering day-to-day weather transition and intraday fluctuations is proposed. Weather factors conditions are classified into typical states in terms of the effects on using a fuzzy clustering technique. Markov chain established to characterize process. An improved Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) probability distributions at first point each day developed fluctuation The for state simulated separately then integrated complete series. proposed verified...

This paper presents a method for reliability evaluation of hybrid generation system wind and tidal powers with battery energy storage. Such may widely exist in coastal areas islands the future. A chronological multiple state probability model power (TPGS) considering both forced outage rate (FOR) TPGS random nature current speed is developed. In FORs WPGS (wind system), delivered related failure rates electronic converters are considered. output storage (BESS) derived. BESS used to...