Abstract This study examines the improvement in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6) models against predecessor CMIP5 simulating mean and extreme precipitation over East Africa region. The compares climatology of indices simulated by CMIP with CHIRPS data set using robust statistical techniques for 1981–2005. results display varying performance general circulation (GCMs) simulation annual seasonal domain. CMIP6 multi‐model ensemble (hereafter MME) shows improved local...

This study assesses the performance of historical rainfall data from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) in reproducing spatial and temporal variability over North Africa. Datasets Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) are used as proxy to observational datasets examine capability 15 CMIP6 models’ their ensemble simulating during 1951–2014. In addition, robust statistical metrics, empirical cumulative distribution function (ECDF),...

Abstract This study employed 15 CMIP6 GCMs and evaluated their ability to simulate rainfall over Uganda during 1981–2014. The models the ensemble mean were assessed based on reproduce annual climatology, seasonal distribution trend. Statistical metrics used include bias error, normalized root square pattern correlation coefficient. Taylor diagram skill score (TSS) in ranking models. models' performance varies greatly from one season other. reproduced observed bimodal of March May (MAM)...

Throughout the Quaternary period, climate change has significantly influenced plant distribution, particularly affecting species within genus Tsuga (Endl.) Carrière. This climatic impact ultimately led to extinction of all in Europe. Today, there are ten recognized worldwide, one listed as a vulnerable and four near-threatened species. The exhibits disjunctive distribution East Asia (EA), eastern North America (ENA), western (WNA). It is crucial comprehend mechanisms underlying these...

This work employed recent model outputs from coupled intercomparison project phase six to simulate surface mean temperature during the June–July–August (JJA) and December–January–February (DJF) seasons for 1970–2014 over Pakistan. The climatic research unit (CRU TS4.03) dataset was utilized as benchmark data analyze models’ performance. JJA season exhibited highest temperature, whilst DJF displayed lowest in whole study period. monthly empirical cumulative distribution frequency (ECDF) range...

This study deals with the modeling issues of transport problem a fractional operator. The model generalized Fourier’s law is discussed for Casson fluid flow over flat surface. dimensionless governing solved Laplace transform method, and different comparisons are plotted from obtained solutions. Other features have been analyzed instead symmetric behavior properties values parameter. As result, ternary nanoparticles approach can be used to improve better than hybrid mono nanoparticles....

This study revisits teleconnections associated with the anomalous events of September to November (SON) rainfall over Uganda during 1981-2019, owing recent intensification extreme events. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), Composite and Correlation analysis are employed examine variability SON domain circulations anomalies. The first EOF mode (dominant mode) displays a positive monopole pattern explains 67.2% variance. results revealed that is largely influenced by Walker circulation...

This study examines the improvement in coupled intercomparison project phase six (CMIP6) models against predecessor CMIP5 simulating mean and extreme precipitation over East Africa region. The compares climatology of indices simulated by CMIP with CHIRPS dataset using robust statistical techniques for 1981 – 2005. results display varying performance general circulation (GCMs) simulation annual seasonal domain. CMIP6-MME shows improved local cycle a better representation two peaks,...

The present study analyzed seasonal (i.e., Dec-Jan [DJF] and June – August [JJA]) temperature change for the near (2025-2054) far future (2070-2099) under SSP245, SSP370, SSP585 scenarios over Pakistan. anomalies, Mann-Kendall trend tests, Sequential test (SQMK), probability density frequency (PDF) analysis were used to investigate mean variations. DJF season projected higher increase in northern (3.8 oC, 5.1 oC 6.5 oC), followed by central regions 4.9 6.4 oC) SSP370 scenarios,...

Abstract. Drought has become one of the most devastating natural hazards in recent decades causing severe vegetation degradation. This study aims to analyze spatiotemporal characteristics drought (duration, frequency, severity, intensity) over Madagascar during 1981–2022. In addition, it evaluates relationship between Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation (NDVI) 2000–2022, representing impact on studied area. assessment was computed SPI-3, SPI-6, SPI-12...

This study employed 15 CMIP6 GCMs and evaluated their ability to simulate rainfall over Uganda during 1981-2019. The models the ensemble mean were assessed based on reproduce annual climatologyseasonal distribution, trend, statistical metrics, including bias error, root square pattern correlation coefficient. Taylor diagram skill score (TSS) used in ranking models. performance varies greatly from one season other. reproduced observed bimodal of March May (MAM) September November (SON) rains...

This study evaluates the historical mean surface temperature (hereafter T2m) and examines how T2m changes over East Africa (EA) in 21st century using CMIP6 models. An evaluation was conducted based on state, trends, statistical metrics (Bias, Correlation Coefficient, Root Mean Square Difference, Taylor skill score). For future projections EA, five best performing models (based their performance ranking simulations) under shared socioeconomic pathways SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 scenarios were...