Summary It is desirable that nonlinear dynamic analyses for structural fragility assessment are performed using unscaled ground motions. The widespread use of a simple analysis procedure known as Cloud Analysis, which uses records and linear regression, has been impeded by its alleged inaccuracies. This paper investigates based on Analysis adopting, the performance variable, scalar demand to capacity ratio equal unity at onset limit state. shown careful choice records, leads reasonable...

Summary Incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) leads to curves expressed in terms of structural response versus intensity, commonly known as the IDA curves. It is that implementation usually involves significant computational effort and most often scaling original records various intensity levels. Employing performance variable critical demand capacity ratio ( DCR ) throughout structure, which equal unity at onset limit state, facilitates identification values a desired state hence procedure....

Summary Calculating the limit state (LS) exceedance probability for a structure considering main seismic event and triggered aftershocks (AS) is complicated both by time‐dependent rate of aftershock occurrence also cumulative damage caused sequence events. Taking advantage methodology developed previously authors post‐mainshock (MS) risk assessment, LS due to mainshock calculated given forecasting time window. The proposed formulation takes into account accumulation aftershocks. It...

SUMMARY Operative seismic aftershock risk forecasting can be particularly useful for rapid decision‐making in the presence of an ongoing sequence. In such a context, limit state first‐excursion probabilities (risk) interval (a day) represent potential progressive damage structure. This work lays out performance‐based framework adaptive assessment immediate post‐mainshock environment. A time‐dependent structural performance variable is adopted order to measure cumulative set event‐dependent...

Quantitative safety checking is an essential part of performance-based design and retrofit new existing construction. The intensity-based demand capacity factor (DCFD) a practical closed-form safety-checking format that lends itself quite well to visual interpretation. Adopting the critical ratio as global damage measure directly, skipping engineering parameter, helps in identifying onset prescribed performance levels. For each intensity level, contribution error DCFD logarithmic domain...

Summary Modelling uncertainty can significantly affect the structural seismic reliability assessment. However, limit state excursion due to this type of may not be described by a Poisson process as it lacks renewal properties with occurrence each earthquake event. Furthermore, considering uncertainties related ground motion representation employing recorded motions together modelling is trivial task. Robust fragility assessment, proposed previously authors, employs response data in order...

Abstract In performance‐based earthquake engineering, the suitability of an intensity measure ( IM ) is expressed through its efficiency and sufficiency. An efficient leads to a small record‐to‐record variability in estimation demand given seismic intensity. A sufficient one that renders for all levels independent other ground motion parameters. Given establishing sufficiency not trivial task, relative RSM has been proposed previously based on information theory concepts. can be employed...

The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model provides an effective tool for predicting the spatio-temporal evolution of clustering in short-term. Based on this model, a fully probabilistic procedure was previously proposed by first two authors providing predictions occurrence prescribed forecasting time interval. This exploited versatility Bayesian inference to adaptively update forecasts based incoming information provided ongoing seismic sequence. In work, is improved: (1) likelihood...

Tsunami fragility curves for building classes are essential tools portfolio risk assessment of tsunami-prone regions. However, existing data comprises mainly empirical curves, which reflect the vulnerability local based on observed damage data. While useful, these have limited applicability in regions with no recorded tsunami events or insufficient This highlights need to expand database analytical particularly areas lacking records. To fill this gap, study proposes a comprehensive framework...

The eastern coast of Sicily, including Catania’s harbor and the tourist beach, is highly vulnerable to tsunami hazards, with a history major events such as January 11th, 1693 earthquake. Due its geographic location region’s seismic activity, Catania remains at significant risk similar catastrophic events. Evacuation widely recognized most effective means saving lives in an imminent event.The coastal area densely populated there proportion elderly people among residents...

Research Article| December 10, 2013 Adaptive Daily Forecasting of Seismic Aftershock Hazard H. Ebrahimian; Ebrahimian aDepartment Structures for Engineering and Architecture, University Naples Federico II, Via Claudio 21, 80125 Naples, Italyfatemeh.jalayer@unina.it Search other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar F. Jalayer; Jalayer D. Asprone; Asprone A. M. Lombardi; Lombardi bIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, via Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Roma, Italy W. Marzocchi;...

Abstract In the immediate aftermath of a strong earthquake and in presence an ongoing aftershock sequence, scientific advisories terms seismicity forecasts play quite crucial role emergency decision-making risk mitigation. Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models are frequently used for forecasting spatio-temporal evolution short-term. We propose robust based on ETAS model, by exploiting link between Bayesian inference Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation. The methodology considers...

Quantifying the impact of modelling uncertainty on seismic performance assessment existing buildings is non-trivial when considering partial information available material properties, construction details, and in capacity models. This task further complicated related to ground motion representation considered. To address this issue, record-to-record variability, uncertainties structural model parameters, fragility parameters due limited sample size are propagated herein by employing a...

The uncertainty in the concrete compressive strength is one of most challenging issues safety checking existing reinforced (RC) buildings. used assessment can highly influence vulnerability results and thus retrofit strategies. need to use less expensive invasive situ measurements such as non-destructive tests should be balanced with a careful check their structural reliability. characterized herein based on large database both destructive measured same members. data are obtained from RC...

Abstract The Italian code requires spectrum compatibility with mean for a suite of accelerograms selected time-history analysis. Although these requirements define minimum acceptability criteria, it is likely that code-based non-linear dynamic analysis going to be done based on limited number records. Performance-based safety-checking provides formal basis addressing the record-to-record variability and epistemic uncertainties due records in estimation seismic hazard curve. “Cloud Analysis”...

Abstract. The present work proposes a simulation-based Bayesian method for parameter estimation and fragility model selection mutually exclusive collectively exhaustive (MECE) damage states. This uses an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation (MCMC) based on likelihood using point-wise intensity values. It identifies the simplest that fits data best, among set of viable models considered. proposed methodology is demonstrated empirical assessments two different tsunami events classes...

Reliable seismic hazard analyses are crucial to mitigate risk. When dealing with induced seismicity the standard Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has be modified because of peculiar characteristics events. In particular, relative shallow depths, small magnitude, a correlation field operations, and eventually non-Poisson recurrence time. addition well-known problem estimating maximum expected it is important take into account how industrial operations affect temporal spatial...