A5054286568- HIV/AIDS Impact and Responses
- Adolescent Sexual and Reproductive Health
- Global Maternal and Child Health
- Health and Conflict Studies
- HIV/AIDS Research and Interventions
- Global Public Health Policies and Epidemiology
- Global Health Care Issues
- Poverty, Education, and Child Welfare
- Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- HIV, Drug Use, Sexual Risk
- Health disparities and outcomes
- Child Nutrition and Water Access
- Employment and Welfare Studies
- Reproductive tract infections research
- HIV-related health complications and treatments
- COVID-19 and healthcare impacts
- Medical Coding and Health Information
- Census and Population Estimation
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- Syphilis Diagnosis and Treatment
- Heparin-Induced Thrombocytopenia and Thrombosis
- SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- HIV Research and Treatment
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
University of Cape Town
2016-2025
Human Sciences Research Council
2015
St Mary's Hospital
2015
Imperial College London
2015
Chris Hani Baragwanath Hospital
2011
Ministry of Health and Child Welfare
2010
Biomedical Research and Training Institute
2010
South African Medical Research Council
2002
Background Few estimates exist of the life expectancy HIV-positive adults receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART) in low- and middle-income countries. We aimed to estimate patients starting ART South Africa compare it with that HIV-negative adults. Methods Findings Data were collected from six African cohorts. Analysis was restricted 37,740 for first time. Estimates mortality obtained by linking patient records national population register. Relative survival models used excess attributable...
BackgroundThe poor health of South Africans is known to be associated with a quadruple disease burden. In the second National Burden Disease (NBD) study, we aimed analyse cause death data for 1997–2012 and develop national, population group, provincial estimates levels causes mortality.MethodWe used underlying from notifications obtained Statistics Africa. These were adjusted completeness using indirect demographic techniques adults comparison survey census child mortality. A regression...
Recent data from antenatal clinic (ANC) surveillance and general population surveys suggest substantial declines in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence Zimbabwe. We assessed the contributions of rising mortality, falling HIV incidence sexual behaviour change to decline prevalence.
Background: The UNAIDS targets for 2020 are to achieve a 90% rate of diagnosis in HIVpositive individuals, provide antiretroviral treatment (ART) HIV-diagnosed individuals and virological suppression ART patients.Objectives: To assess South Africa’s progress towards the variations performance by province.Methods: A mathematical model was fitted HIV data each provinces, country as whole. Numbers tests performed province were estimated from routine over 2002–2015 period, numbers patients...
Background: The prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) HIV has been focused mainly on women who are positive at their first antenatal visit, but there is uncertainty regarding the contribution to overall from mothers seroconvert after visit and before weaning. Method: A mathematical model was developed simulate changes in over time, South Africa. allows for infant feeding practices as infants age, temporal provision antiretroviral prophylaxis counseling feeding, well maternal...
Substantial reductions in adult mortality have been observed South Africa since the mid-2000s, but there has no formal evaluation of how much this decline is attributable to scale-up antiretroviral treatment (ART), as previous models not calibrated vital registration data. We developed a deterministic mathematical model simulate trends that would expected absence ART, and with earlier introduction ART.Model estimates rates ART patients were obtained from International Epidemiology Databases...
Background: Recent studies have shown HIV incidence declines at a population level in several African countries. However, these not directly quantified the extent to which are attributable different programs. Methods: We calibrated mathematical model of South epidemic age- and sex-specific data from antenatal surveys, household death registration, using Bayesian approach. The was also parameterized on self-reported condom use, voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC), testing,...
This study aims to assess trends in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence South Africa, and the extent which prevention treatment programmes have reduced HIV incidence. Two models of African epidemic, STI (sexually transmitted infection)–HIV Interaction model ASSA2003 AIDS Demographic model, were adapted. Both fitted age-specific prevalence data from antenatal clinic surveys household surveys, using a Bayesian approach. suggest that 15–49 year olds declined significantly between start...
National trends in age-standardised death rates (ASDRs) for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) South Africa (SA) were identified between 1997 and 2010.As part of the second Burden Disease Study, vital registration data used after validity checks, proportional redistribution missing age, sex population group, demographic adjustments incompleteness, identification misclassified AIDS deaths. Garbage codes redistributed proportionally to specified by group. ASDRs calculated using mid-year...
Globally, large proportions of HIV-positive populations live in cities. The Fast-Track cities project aims to advance progress toward elimination HIV as a public health threat by accelerating the response across world. This study applies well-established transmission model provide key estimates for five largest metropolitan districts South Africa (SA): Cape Town, Ekurhuleni, eThekwini, Johannesburg and Tshwane. We calibrate metro-specific data sources estimate 90-90-90 targets set UNAIDS...
This paper aims to quantify the effects of different types sexual risk behaviour on spread HIV in South Africa. A mathematical model is developed simulate changes numbers partners, marital status, commerc
Mathematical models are widely used to simulate the effects of interventions control HIV and project future epidemiological trends resource needs. We aimed validate past model projections against data from a large household survey done in South Africa 2012.We compared ten prevalence, incidence, antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage for with estimates national 2012. Model 2012 were made before publication survey. adult (age 15-49 years) prevalence 2012, change between 2008 ART by sex age...
BackgroundThe goal of virtual elimination horizontal and mother-to-child HIV transmission in South Africa (SA) has been proposed, but there have few systematic investigations which interventions are likely to be most critical reducing incidence.ObjectiveThis study aims evaluate SA's potential achieve targets identify will achieving incidence reductions.DesignA mathematical model was developed simulate the population-level impact different SA. Probability distributions were specified...
Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) restrictions, particularly relating to the sale of alcohol and hours curfew, have had a marked effect on temporal pattern unnatural deaths in South Africa. Methods. Death data were collected over 68 weeks from January 2020 April 2021, together with information nature restrictions (if any) alcohol, curfew. Data analysed using simple ordinary least square (OLS) regression model estimate relative contribution curfew excess deaths. Results. The complete...
Accurate statistics are essential for policy guidance and decisions. However, the reported number of cases COVID-19 deaths known to be biased due under-ascertainment SARS-CoV-2 incomplete reporting deaths. Making use death data from National Population Register has made it possible track in near-real time excess experienced South Africa. These reveal considerable provincial differences impact COVID-19, likely associated with population age structure density, patterns social mixing,...
To analyse trends in under-five mortality rate South Africa (1990-2011), particularly the contribution of AIDS deaths.Three nationally used models for estimating deaths children were systematically reviewed. The model outputs compared with estimates from two global estimation models. All available empirical data.Differences between resulted varying point but similar, increasing to a peak around 2005. three showing suggest maximum 37-39% child due 2004-2005 which has since declined. Although...
There is uncertainty regarding the completeness of death recording by civil registration and health centres in South Africa. This paper aims to compare two systems, cohorts African patients receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART).Completeness was estimated using a capture-recapture approach. Six ART programmes linked their patient record systems vital system identity document (ID) numbers provided data comparing outcomes recorded files registration. Patients were excluded if they had...