Paul Lucas

ORCID: 0000-0003-0292-7830
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About
Contact & Profiles
Research Areas
  • Climate Change Policy and Economics
  • Environmental Impact and Sustainability
  • Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies
  • Energy and Environment Impacts
  • Sustainable Development and Environmental Policy
  • Global Energy and Sustainability Research
  • Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
  • Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
  • Agricultural risk and resilience
  • demographic modeling and climate adaptation
  • Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
  • Carbon Dioxide Capture Technologies
  • Climate change impacts on agriculture
  • Space exploration and regulation
  • Space Science and Extraterrestrial Life
  • Flood Risk Assessment and Management
  • Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth
  • Environmental and Social Impact Assessments
  • Planetary Science and Exploration
  • Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies
  • Global Public Health Policies and Epidemiology
  • Healthcare innovation and challenges
  • Sustainability and Ecological Systems Analysis
  • Income, Poverty, and Inequality
  • Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems

Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
2014-2025

Thermo Fisher Scientific (United States)
2022

Utrecht University
2019-2020

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
2019

Centre for International Governance Innovation
2019

Stellenbosch University
2019

National Institute for Public Health and the Environment
2004-2006

Illinois Wesleyan University
1974

This paper describes the possible developments in global energy use and production, land use, emissions climate changes following SSP1 storyline, a development consistent with green growth (or sustainable development) paradigm (a more inclusive respecting environmental boundaries). The results are based on implementation using IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model compared a) other implementations of SSPs (SSP2 SSP3) b) models. show that combination resource efficiency, preferences for...

10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.008 article EN cc-by-nc-nd Global Environmental Change 2016-06-26

On the basis of IPCC B2, A1b and B1 baseline scenarios, mitigation scenarios were developed that stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at 650, 550 450 – subject to specific assumptions 400 ppm CO2-eq. The analysis takes into account a large number reduction options, such as reductions non-CO2 gases, carbon plantations measures in energy system. study shows stabilization low be technically feasible, even given relatively high scenarios. To achieve these lower concentration levels, global...

10.1007/s10584-006-9172-9 article EN cc-by-nc Climatic Change 2007-02-12

The planetary boundaries framework proposes quantitative global limits to the anthropogenic perturbation of crucial Earth system processes, and thus marks out a safe operating space for human activities. Yet, decisions regarding resource use emissions are mostly made at less aggregated scales, by national sub-national governments, businesses, other local actors. To operationalize concept, need be translated into aligned with targets that relevant these decision-making scales. In this paper,...

10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.008 article EN cc-by-nc-nd Global Environmental Change 2016-07-21

Afforestation is considered a cost-effective and readily available climate change mitigation option. In recent studies afforestation presented as major solution to limit change. However, estimates of potential vary widely. Moreover, the risks in global policy negative trade-offs with food security are often not considered. Here we present new approach assess economic IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model framework. addition, discuss role pathways effects on system under increasingly...

10.1111/gcb.14887 article EN Global Change Biology 2019-10-26

With the establishment of sustainable development goals (SDGs), countries worldwide agreed to a prosperous, socially inclusive, and environmentally future for all. This ambition, however, exposes critical gap in science-based insights, namely on how achieve 17 SDGs simultaneously. Quantitative goal-seeking scenario studies could help explore needed systems' transformations. requires clear definition "target space." The 169 targets 232 indicators used monitoring SDG implementation cannot be...

10.1016/j.oneear.2022.01.003 article EN cc-by-nc-nd One Earth 2022-02-01

This paper discusses the role and relevance of shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview uses social–environmental in IAV studies identifies main shortcomings earlier such scenarios. Second, elaborates on two aspects would improve their usefulness compared to scenario sets: (i) enhancing applicability while retaining coherence...

10.1007/s10584-013-0931-0 article EN cc-by Climatic Change 2013-09-17

This paper presents a method for the analysis of socio-ecological patterns vulnerability people being at risk losing their livelihoods as consequence global environmental change. fills gap in methodologies by providing generalizations factors that shape specific systems and showing spatial occurrence. The proposed consists four steps include both quantitative qualitative analyses. To start, system exposed to changes will be studied needs determined. could, example, farmers drylands, urban...

10.1007/s10113-014-0746-1 article EN cc-by Regional Environmental Change 2014-12-31

This paper presents a set of multi-gas mitigation scenarios that aim for stabilisation greenhouse gas radiative forcing in 2150 at levels from 3.7 to 5.3 W/m2. At the moment, non-CO2 gasses (methane, nitrous oxide, PFCs, HFCs and SF6) contribute about quarter global emissions. The analysis shows including these gases is crucial formulating cost-effective response. For 4.5 W/m2, approach leads 40% lower costs than an would focus CO2-only. Within assumptions used this study, contribution total...

10.5547/issn0195-6574-ej-volsi2006-nosi3-10 article EN The Energy Journal 2006-06-01

Discussions on how to define, design, and implement sustainable development goals (SDG) have taken center stage in the United Nations since Rio+20 summit. Energy is one of issues that enjoyed consensus, before after Rio, as an important area for SDGs address. Many proposals been put forward should be formulated what areas they cover, but there few attempts develop a generic integrated framework within which diverse can accommodated treated coherent way. The purpose this paper such...

10.3390/su5104124 article EN Sustainability 2013-09-25

The feasibility of achieving climate stabilization consistent with the objective 2°C is heavily influenced by how effort in terms mitigation and economic resources will be distributed among major economies. This paper provides a multi-model quantification commitment 10 regions world for diversity allocation schemes. Our results indicate that policy uniform carbon pricing no transfer payments would yield an uneven distribution costs, which lower than global average OECD countries, higher...

10.1142/s2010007813400095 article EN Climate Change Economics 2013-11-01

Coastal areas are urbanizing at unprecedented rates, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Combinations of long-standing emerging problems these urban generate vulnerability for human well-being ecosystems alike. This baseline study provides a spatially explicit global systematization into typical profiles the year 2000 using largely sub-national data. Using 11 indicator datasets expansion, population growth, marginalization poor populations, government effectiveness, exposures...

10.1371/journal.pone.0220936 article EN cc-by PLoS ONE 2020-01-31

Global Environmental Assessments (GEAs) are in a unique position to influence environmental decision-making the context of sustainability challenges. To do this effectively, however, new methods needed respond needs decision-makers for more integrated, contextualized and goal-seeking evaluation different policies, geared action from global local. While scenarios an important tool GEAs link short-term decisions medium long-term consequences, these current information cannot be met only...

10.1080/26395916.2021.1901783 article EN cc-by Ecosystems and People 2021-04-14
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