A5070390933- Species Distribution and Climate Change
- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- Zoonotic diseases and public health
- Wildlife Ecology and Conservation
- Amphibian and Reptile Biology
- Environmental Conservation and Management
- Aquatic and Environmental Studies
- Plant and animal studies
- SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Animal Disease Management and Epidemiology
- Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- Data-Driven Disease Surveillance
- Insect symbiosis and bacterial influences
- Crustacean biology and ecology
- Parasite Biology and Host Interactions
- Animal Ecology and Behavior Studies
- Fish Ecology and Management Studies
- Aquatic Invertebrate Ecology and Behavior
- Plant Pathogens and Fungal Diseases
- Dermatological diseases and infestations
- Animal Behavior and Reproduction
- Viral Infections and Vectors
- Animal and Plant Science Education
- Dengue and Mosquito Control Research
University of Zurich
2016-2019
Hudson Institute
2019
John Wiley & Sons (United States)
2019
Abstract Conservation science can be most effective in its decision‐support role when seeking answers to clearly formulated questions of direct management relevance. Emerging wildlife diseases, a driver global biodiversity loss, illustrate the challenges performing this role: spite considerable research, successful disease mitigation is uncommon. Decision analysis increasingly advocated guide planning, but application remains rare. Using an integral projection model, we explored potential...
The basic reproduction number, R
Emerging infectious diseases cause extirpation of wildlife populations. We use an epidemiological model to explore the effects a recently emerged disease caused by salamander-killing chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans ( Bsal ) on host populations, and evaluate which mitigation measures are most likely succeed. As individuals do not recover from , we used with states susceptible, latent infectious, parametrized using data pathogen taken literature expert opinion. The suggested...
Abstract When prevention of invasive species’ introductions fails, society faces the challenge to manage species in an effective and efficient way. The success this depends on biological aspects cooperation between decision makers scientists. Using case round goby Neogobius melanostomus , one Europe's “worst species”, we propose approach guiding scientists co‐produce population control measures collaboration with makers. We surveyed effectiveness, urgency simplicity perceived by as well...
Emerging wildlife diseases are taking a heavy toll on animal and plant species worldwide. Mitigation, particularly in the initial epidemic phase, is hindered by uncertainty about epidemiology management of emerging diseases, but also vague or poorly defined objectives. Here, we use quantitative analysis to assess how decision context mitigation objectives, available strategies practical constraints influences whether respond epidemics wildlife. To illustrate our approach, parametrized model...
Abstract Mitigation of infectious wildlife diseases is especially challenging where pathogens affect communities multiple host species. Although most ecological studies recognize the challenge posed by multiple‐species pathogens, implications for management are typically assessed only qualitatively. Translating intuitive understanding that species important into practice requires a quantitative assessment whether and how secondary should also be targeted effort this will require. Using...
We estimated the initial rate of spread (r0) and basic reproduction number (R0) for States in USA experiencing COVID-19 epidemics by analyzing death data time series using a time-varying autoregressive state-space model. The varied greatly among States, with highest r0 = 0.31 [0.23, 0.39] (95% CI) New York State, corresponding to R0 6.4 [4.3, 9.0] CI). variation was strongly correlated peak daily count showing that anticipates subsequent challenges controlling epidemics. Furthermore, implies...
Abstract The basic reproduction number, R 0 , determines the rate of spread a communicable disease and therefore gives fundamental information needed to plan public health interventions. Estimated values are only useful, however, if they accurately predict future potential spread. Using mortality records, we estimated COVID-19 among 160 counties county-aggregates in USA. Most high among-county variance was explained by four factors: timing county-level outbreak (partial 2 = 0.093),...
Seasonal cycles have a demonstrated effect on the dynamics of human and animal diseases. However, their quantitative implications for disease mitigation in wildlife are less well studied. We quantitatively investigate seasonality chytridiomycosis caused by Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans European fire salamanders (Salamandra salamandra). Floquet theory is mathematical tool that allows analysis periodic systems. In epidemiology, it can be used to study fate un-/managed host population when...
Taxonomic resolution or uncertainty poses an important problem in biodiversity research. Assessment of at the species level is most informative and preferred, but requires effort expertise. Alternatively, researchers often bin into higher taxa because they are unable to recognize them, save money time. Here we analyse, by simulation analytical modelling, combined effects dose-dependent mortality taxonomic binning on indices for a fictitious community organisms. We asked (1) how sample...
Ecological and evolutionary predictions are being increasingly employed to inform decision-makers confronted with intensifying pressures on biodiversity. For these efforts effectively guide conservation actions, knowing the limit of predictability is pivotal. In this study, we provide realistic expectations for enterprise predicting changes in ecological observations through time. We begin an intuitive explanation (the extent which possible) employing easy-to-use metric, predictive power
Abstract One of the main recommendations reintroduction biology for prospective projects is that they should be planned with local species knowledge and species‐specific quantitative modelling, example, from population viability analysis ( PVA ). Here, we apply this approach to critically endangered Floreana mockingbird Mimus trifasciatus in Galápagos Archipelago. After its extinction on Island, today only persists two small islets, Champion Gardner. In context a wider island restoration...
During the COVID-19 pandemic, many quantitative approaches were employed to predict course of disease spread. However, forecasting faces challenge inherently unpredictable spread dynamics, setting a limit accuracy all models. Here, we analyze data from USA explain variation among jurisdictions in predictability (that is, extent which predictions are possible), using combination statistical and simulation We show that for half counties states rate COVID-19, r(t), was predictable at most 9...
Abstract Ecological and evolutionary predictions are being increasingly employed to inform decision-makers confronted with intensifying pressures menacing life on Earth. For these efforts effectively guide conservation actions, knowing the limit of predictability is pivotal. In this study, we provide realistic expectations about enterprise predicting changes in ecological observations through time. We begin an intuitive explanation (that is, extent which possible) employing easy-to-use...
Wildlife diseases figure prominently among the main causes of biodiversity loss worldwide. Especially fungal and fungus-like pathogens are on rise, wreaking havoc across tree life by threatening species persistence destabilizing ecosystems. A worrisome example freshwater crayfish in Eurasia Oceania, facing dual challenge introduced competitive an water mold ( Aphanomyces astaci ) causing plague. A. locally extinguishes susceptible native populations, while non-native individuals (mostly from...
A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-021-01679-0.