Carl A. B. Pearson
A5024132855- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
- COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
- Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- Data-Driven Disease Surveillance
- Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies
- COVID-19 and healthcare impacts
- COVID-19 and Mental Health
- Malaria Research and Control
- COVID-19 Digital Contact Tracing
- Viral Infections and Vectors
- Influenza Virus Research Studies
- Poxvirus research and outbreaks
- Human Mobility and Location-Based Analysis
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Plant Virus Research Studies
- SARS-CoV-2 detection and testing
- Herpesvirus Infections and Treatments
- Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
- Viral Infections and Immunology Research
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- COVID-19 impact on air quality
- Infection Control and Ventilation
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
2019-2024
Stellenbosch University
2019-2024
The University of Melbourne
2024
University of London
2020-2023
UK Health Security Agency
2023
National Research Foundation
2023
Pearson (United Kingdom)
2023
University of Cambridge
2021
St. John Macomb Oakland Hospital
2021
Janssen (Netherlands)
2021
UK variant transmission Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has the capacity to generate variants with major genomic changes. The B.1.1.7 (also known as VOC 202012/01) many mutations that alter virus attachment and entry into human cells. Using a variety of statistical dynamic modeling approaches, Davies et al. characterized spread in United Kingdom. authors found is 43 90% more transmissible than predecessor lineage but saw no clear evidence for change disease...
BackgroundNon-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented to reduce transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the UK. Projecting size an unmitigated epidemic and potential effect different control measures has crucial support evidence-based policy making during early stages epidemic. This study assesses impact for mitigating burden COVID-19 UK.MethodsWe used a stochastic age-structured model explore range intervention scenarios, tracking 66·4...
A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England November 2020 and is rapidly spreading towards fixation. Using a variety of statistical dynamic modelling approaches, we estimate that this variant has 43–90% (range 95% credible intervals 38–130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. fitted two-strain transmission model shows will lead to large resurgences COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure...
SummaryBackgroundNational immunisation programmes globally are at risk of suspension due to the severe health system constraints and physical distancing measures in place mitigate ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed compare benefits sustaining routine childhood Africa with acquiring acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection through visiting vaccination service delivery points.MethodsWe considered a high-impact scenario low-impact approximate child deaths that could be...
<ns4:p><ns4:bold>Background:</ns4:bold> Interventions are now in place worldwide to reduce transmission of the novel coronavirus. Assessing temporal variations different countries is essential for evaluating effectiveness public health interventions and impact changes policy.</ns4:p><ns4:p> <ns4:bold>Methods:</ns4:bold> We use case notification data generate daily estimates time-dependent reproduction number regions countries. Our modelling framework, based on open source tooling, accounts...
Background Large Phase III trials across Asia and Latin America have recently demonstrated the efficacy of a recombinant, live-attenuated dengue vaccine (Dengvaxia) over first 25 mo following vaccination. Subsequent data collected in longer-term follow-up phase, however, raised concerns about potential increase hospitalization risk subsequent infections, particular among young, dengue-naïve vaccinees. We here report predictions from eight independent modelling groups on long-term safety,...
Abstract Background Asymptomatic or subclinical SARS-CoV-2 infections are often unreported, which means that confirmed case counts may not accurately reflect underlying epidemic dynamics. Understanding the level of ascertainment (the ratio symptomatic cases to true number individuals) and undetected progression is crucial informing COVID-19 response planning, including introduction relaxation control measures. Estimating over time allows for accurate estimates specific outcomes such as...
The outbreak of monkeypox across non-endemic regions confirmed in May 2022 shows epidemiological features distinct from previously imported outbreaks, most notably its observed growth and predominance amongst men who have sex with (MSM). We use a transmission model fitted to empirical sexual partnership data show that the heavy-tailed distribution, which handful individuals disproportionately many partners, can explain sustained among MSM despite absence such patterns previously. suggest...
<ns4:p><ns4:bold>Background:</ns4:bold>Assessing temporal variations in transmission different countries is essential for monitoring the epidemic, evaluating effectiveness of public health interventions and estimating impact changes policy.</ns4:p><ns4:p/><ns4:p><ns4:bold>Methods:</ns4:bold>We use case death notification data to generate daily estimates time-varying reproduction number globally, regionally, nationally, subnationally over a 12-week rolling window. Our modelling framework,...
The health impact of COVID-19 may differ in African settings as compared to countries Europe or China due demographic, epidemiological, environmental and socio-economic factors. We evaluated strategies reduce SARS-CoV-2 burden countries, so support decisions that balance minimising mortality, protecting services safeguarding livelihoods. used a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered mathematical model, stratified by age, predict the evolution epidemics three representing range age...
Understanding changes in human mobility the early stages of COVID-19 pandemic is crucial for assessing impacts travel restrictions designed to reduce disease spread. Here, relying on data from mainland China, we investigate spatio-temporal characteristics between 1st January and March 2020, discuss their public health implications. An outbound surge Wuhan before were implemented was also observed across China due Lunar New Year, indicating that holiday may have played a larger role compared...
Abstract Background Many low- and middle-income countries have implemented control measures against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, it is not clear to what extent these explain the low numbers of recorded COVID-19 cases deaths in Africa. One main aims reduce respiratory pathogen transmission through direct contact with others. In this study, we collect data from residents informal settlements around Nairobi, Kenya, assess if changed patterns, estimate impact changes on basic...
A key unknown for SARS-CoV-2 is how asymptomatic infections contribute to transmission. We used a transmission model with and presymptomatic states, calibrated data on disease onset test frequency from the Diamond Princess cruise ship outbreak, quantify contribution of The estimated that 74% (70–78%, 95% posterior interval) proceeded asymptomatically. Despite intense testing, 53% (51–56%) remained undetected, most them asymptomatic. Asymptomatic individuals were source 69% (20–85%) all...
Abstract There is conflicting evidence on the influence of weather COVID-19 transmission. Our aim to estimate weather-dependent signatures in early phase pandemic, while controlling for socio-economic factors and non-pharmaceutical interventions. We identify a modest non-linear association between mean temperature effective reproduction number (R e ) 409 cities 26 countries, with decrease 0.087 (95% CI: 0.025; 0.148) 10 °C increase. Early interventions have greater effect R 0.285 CI 0.223;...
Abstract Emerging evidence suggests that contact tracing has had limited success in the UK reducing R number across COVID-19 pandemic. We investigate potential pitfalls and areas for improvement by extending an existing branching process model, adding diagnostic testing refining parameter estimates. Our results demonstrate reporting adherence are most important predictors of programme impact but coverage speed plus sensitivity also play role. conclude well-implemented could bring small...