A5041437291- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Pasture and Agricultural Systems
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Climate change and permafrost
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- Science and Climate Studies
- Paleontology and Stratigraphy of Fossils
- Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
- Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
The University of Queensland
2016-2025
Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace
2021
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement
2021
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
2021
Queensland Department of Environment and Science
2009-2021
Queensland Government
2009-2014
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
1992-2004
Amplification of the northern hemisphere seasonal cycle insolation during mid‐Holocene causes a northward shift main regions monsoon precipitation over Africa and India in all 18 simulations conducted for Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). Differences among are related to differences model formulation. Despite qualitative agreement with paleoecological estimates biome shifts, magnitude increases underestimated by models.
Abstract Two questions motivated this study: 1) Will meteorological droughts become more frequent and severe during the twenty-first century? 2) Given projected global temperature rise, to what extent does inclusion of (in addition precipitation) in drought indicators play a role future droughts? To answer, we analyzed changes frequency, severity, historically undocumented extreme over 1981–2100, using standardized precipitation index (SPI; including only) precipitation-evapotranspiration...
Several recommendations have been proposed for detecting land use and cover change (LULCC) on the environment from, observed climatic records to modeling improve its understanding impacts climate. Researchers need detect LULCCs accurately at appropriate scales within a specified time period better understand their climate provide improved estimates of future The US Climate Reference Network (USCRN) can be helpful in monitoring LULCC near-surface atmospheric conditions, including temperature....
Abstract The U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address number uncertainties regarding the impact forcing role land–atmosphere feedbacks regional drought. runs were carried out five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) one coupled atmosphere–ocean in which was continuously nudged imposed forcing. This paper...
Abstract. We use a coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model (CSIRO-Mk3.6) to investigate the drivers of trends in summer rainfall and circulation vicinity northern Australia. As part Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we perform 10-member 21st century ensemble driven by Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). To roles different forcing agents, also multiple ensembles historical change, which are analysed for period 1951–2010. The runs include "all...
A multi-scenario, multi-model ensemble of simulations from regional climate models is outlined to provide the core data source for a set projections and change service. subset realisations CMIP6 Global Climate Models (GCMs) are selected downscaling by Regional (RCMs) under 'sparse matrix' framework using CORDEX guidelines Shared Socio-economic Pathways that feature low emissions (SSP1-2.6) high (SSP3-7.0). The excludes poor performing models, with performance assessed climatology over large...
Future projections of precipitation are uncertain, hampering effective climate adaptation strategies globally. Our understanding changes across multiple model simulations under a warmer is limited by this lack coherence models. Here, we address challenge introducing an approach that detects agreement in drier and wetter conditions evaluating continuous 120-year time-series with trends, 146 Global Climate Model (GCM) runs two elevated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios. We show the...
Abstract We assess the simulation of Australian mean climate and rainfall variability in a new version CSIRO coupled ocean–atmosphere global model (GCM). The version, called Mark 3.6 (Mk3.6), differs from its recent predecessors (Mk3.0 Mk3.5) by inclusion an interactive aerosol scheme, which treats sulfate, dust, sea salt carbonaceous aerosol. Other changes include updated radiation scheme modified boundary‐layer treatment. Comparison summer winter simulations Mk3.6 with those Mk3.0 Mk3.5...
Abstract Global climate change is the major and most urgent global environmental issue. Australia already experiencing as evidenced by higher temperatures more frequent severe droughts. These impacts are compounded increasing land use pressures on natural resources native ecosystems. This paper provides a synthesis of interactions, feedbacks risks variability, use/land cover (LUCC) impacting Australian continent how they vary regionally. We review evidence underlying processes resulting from...
Heatwaves are defined as unusually high temperature events that occur for at least three consecutive days with major impacts to human health, economy, agriculture and ecosystems. This paper investigates: 1) changes in heatwave characteristics such peak temperature, number of events, frequency duration over a past 67-year period Australia; 2) projected this century Queensland, northeast 3) the avoided limiting global warming by 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C 3.0 °C. The results reveal heatwaves have...
The equatorial island of Borneo is a deforestation hotspot. However, the influence forest loss on island's climate remains largely unexplored. Here, we examine how related to changes in ground-based records temperature (1961–2007) and precipitation (1951–2007), MODIS data for (2002–2016). Analyses were performed entire island, lowland areas (<200 m ASL), nine selected watersheds. We found strong island-wide relationship between increases daily reductions precipitation. local was most...
Abstract We assess the impact of three bias correction approaches on present day means and extremes, climate change signal, for six variables (precipitation, minimum maximum temperature, radiation, vapour pressure mean sea level pressure) from dynamically downscaled simulations over Queensland, Australia. Results show that all bias‐correction methods are effective at removing systematic model biases, however results variable season‐dependent. Importantly, our based fully independent...
There is growing scientific evidence that anthropogenic land cover change (LCC) can produce a significant impact on regional climate. However, few studies have quantified this climate extremes and droughts. In study, we analysed daily data from pair of ensemble simulations using the CSIRO AGCM for period 1951–2003 to quantify LCC selected indices in eastern Australia. The results showed: an increase number dry hot days, decrease rainfall intensity wet day rainfall, decile‐based drought...
Abstract Global warming is likely to cause a progressive drought increase in some regions, but how population and natural resources will be affected still underexplored. This study focuses on global population, forests, croplands pastures exposure meteorological hazard the 21st century, expressed as frequency severity of events. As input, we use large ensemble climate simulations from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), projections NASA‐SEDAC dataset land‐use...
Abstract High‐resolution climate change projections are increasingly necessary to inform policy and adaptation planning. Downscaling of global models (GCMs) is required simulate the at spatial scale relevant for local impacts. Here, we dynamically downscaled 15 CMIP6 GCMs a 10 km resolution over Australia using Conformal Cubic Atmospheric model (CCAM), creating largest ensemble high‐resolution Australia. We compared host simulations Australian Gridded Climate Data (AGCD) observational data...
The Australian landscape has been transformed extensively since European settlement. However, the potential impact of historical land cover change (LCC) on regional climate a secondary consideration in projections. In this study, we analyzed data from pair ensembles (10 members each) for period 1951–2003 to quantify changes by comparing results pre‐European and modern‐day characteristics. sensitivity simulations showed following: statistically significant warming surface temperature,...
Abstract Queensland experiences considerable inter‐annual and decadal rainfall variability, which impacts water‐resource management, agriculture infrastructure. To understand the mechanisms by large‐scale atmospheric coupled air–sea processes drive these variations, empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis is applied to 1900–2010 seasonal rainfall. Fields from observations 20th Century Reanalysis are regressed onto EOT timeseries associate EOTs with drivers. In winter, spring...
Abstract Deforestation and climate change are interconnected represent major environmental challenges. Here, we explore the capacity of regional-scale restoration marginal agricultural lands to savanna woodlands in Australia reduce warming drying resulting from increased concentration greenhouse gases. We show that triggers a positive feedback loop between land surface atmosphere, characterised by evaporative fraction, eddy dissipation turbulent mixing boundary-layer enhanced cloud formation...