A5019145935- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Climate variability and models
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Global Energy and Sustainability Research
- Quantum, superfluid, helium dynamics
- Cold Atom Physics and Bose-Einstein Condensates
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
- Pulsars and Gravitational Waves Research
- Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies
- Agricultural risk and resilience
- Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
- Water resources management and optimization
- Radio Astronomy Observations and Technology
- Astrophysics and Cosmic Phenomena
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Seismic Waves and Analysis
- Economic and Social Development
- Regional Development and Innovation
- Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
2013-2023
Leibniz Association
2019-2021
Catalan Institute for Water Research
2016
The University of Melbourne
2008-2012
Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, as well globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On supply side, renewable resources will be affected by projected precipitation patterns, temperature, other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced five latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration...
The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project offers a framework to compare climate impact projections in different sectors and at scales. Consistent socio-economic input data provide the basis for cross-sectoral integration of projections. project is designed enable quantitative synthesis change impacts levels global warming. This report briefly outlines objectives first, fast-tracked phase Project, based on models, provides an overview participating data, scenario set-up.
<strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">Abstract.</strong> Statistical bias correction is commonly applied within climate impact modelling to correct model data for systematic deviations of the simulated historical from observations. Methods are based on transfer functions generated map distribution that Those subsequently future projections. Here, we present method was developed ISI-MIP, first Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. ISI-MIP designed synthesise projections in...
Abstract. In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of Parties (COP) to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited Intergovernmental Panel (IPCC) provide a special report in 2018 impacts global warming 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related greenhouse gas emission pathways. Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, IPCC panel accepted invitation. Here we describe response devised within Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) tailored,...
Future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO 2 are expected to cause major changes in vegetation structure function over large fractions of the global land surface. Seven models used analyze possible responses future simulated by a range general circulation run under all four representative concentration pathway scenarios changing concentrations greenhouse gases. All 110 simulations predict an increase carbon 2100, but with substantial variation between models. For example, at 4 °C...
Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, well such capture impacts extreme conditions. Using 2003 European heat wave drought as a historical analogue comparable events future, find that majority underestimate extremeness sectors agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems,...
The impacts of global climate change on different aspects humanity’s diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions mitigation adaptation strategies, it is necessary understand, quantify, synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial an understanding how in sectors overlap, as overlapping increase exposure, lead interactions likely raise pressure. As a first step we develop herein framework...
Abstract The extent and impact of climate‐related extreme events depend on the underlying meteorological, hydrological, or climatological drivers as well human factors such land use population density. Here we quantify pure effect historical future climate change exposure to using an unprecedentedly large ensemble harmonized simulations from Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. Our results indicate that global warming has already more than doubled both area annually...
Year-to-year variations in crop yields can have major impacts on the livelihoods of subsistence farmers and may trigger significant global price fluctuations, with severe consequences for people developing countries. Fluctuations be induced by weather conditions, management decisions, weeds, diseases, pests. Although an explicit quantification deeper understanding weather-induced crop-yield variability is essential adaptation strategies, so far it has only been addressed empirical models....
Abstract. Statistical bias correction is commonly applied within climate impact modeling to correct model data for systematic deviations of the simulated historical from observations. Methods are based on transfer functions generated map distribution that Those subsequently future projections. Thereby signal modified in a way not necessarily preserving trend original data. Here, we present method was developed ISI-MIP, first Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. ISI-MIP...
Abstract Climate science provides strong evidence of the necessity limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, in line with Paris Agreement. The IPCC °C special report (SR1.5) presents 414 emissions scenarios modelled for report, which around 50 are classified as ‘1.5 scenarios’, no or low temperature overshoot. These emission differ their reliance on individual mitigation levers, including reduction energy demand, decarbonisation production, development land-management systems, and pace scale...
Climate change may pose a high risk of to Earth's ecosystems: shifting climatic boundaries induce changes in the biogeochemical functioning and structures ecosystems that render it difficult for endemic plant animal species survive their current habitats. Here we aggregate ecosystem state as proxy these shifts at different levels global warming. Estimates are based on simulations from seven vegetation models (GVMs) driven by future climate scenarios, allowing quantification related...
The aims of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) are to provide a framework for intercomparison global and regional-scale risk models within across multiple sectors enable coordinated multi-sectoral assessments different risks their aggregated effects. overarching goal is use knowledge gained support adaptation mitigation decisions that require regional or perspectives context facilitating transformations sustainable development, despite inevitable climate shifts...
The pinning and collective unpinning of superfluid vortices in a decelerating container is key element the canonical model neutron star glitches laboratory spin-down experiments with helium II. Here dynamics vortex (un-)pinning explored using numerical Gross-Pitaevskii calculations, view to understanding triggers for catastrophic events (vortex avalanches) that lead rotational glitches. We explicitly identify three triggers: shear between bulk condensate pinned vortices, proximity effect...
A framework is presented for a statistical theory of neutron star glitches, motivated by the results emerging from recent Gross–Pitaevskii simulations pinned, decelerating quantum condensates. It shown that observed glitch size distributions cannot be reproduced if superfluid vortices unpin independently via Poisson process; central limit theorem yields narrow Gaussian distribution, instead broad, power-law tail observed. This conclusion not altered fundamentally when range pinning...
The first large-scale quantum mechanical simulations of pulsar glitches are presented, using a Gross–Pitaevskii model the crust-superfluid system in presence pinning. Power-law distributions simulated glitch sizes obtained, accord with astronomical observations, exponents ranging from −0.55 to −1.26. Examples simulations, containing ∼200 vortices, reveal that these statistics persist many-vortex limit. Waiting-time also constructed. These and other support hypothesis catastrophic unpinning...
Abstract. Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include potential passing large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) changes in extreme meteorological events (Field 2012) complex on (Hallegatte 2013). Thus climate mitigation is considered a necessary societal avoiding...
Abstract. Despite significant progress in climate impact research, the narratives that science can presently piece together of a 2, 3, 4, or 5 °C warmer world remain fragmentary. Here we briefly review past undertakings to characterise comprehensively and quantify impacts based on multi-model approaches. We then report Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), community-driven effort compare models across sectors scales systematically, uncertainties along chain from...
A cellular automaton model of pulsar glitches is described, based on the superfluid vortex unpinning paradigm. Recent analyses glitch data suggest that result from scale-invariant avalanches, which are consistent with a self-organized critical system (SOCS). provides computationally efficient means modelling collective behaviour up to 1016 vortices in interior, whilst ensuring dominant aspects microphysics not lost. The generates avalanche distributions qualitatively SOCS and data....
The scale-invariant glitch statistics observed in individual pulsars (exponential waiting-time and power-law size distributions) are consistent with a critical self-organization process, wherein superfluid vortices pin metastably macroscopic domains unpin collectively via nearest-neighbor avalanches. Macroscopic inhomogeneity emerges naturally if pinning occurs at crustal faults. If, instead, lattice sites defects, which macroscopically homogeneous, we show that an alternative, noncritical...
Abstract. In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of Parties (COP) to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited Intergovernmental Panel (IPCC) provide a "special report in 2018 impacts global warming 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related greenhouse gas emission pathways". Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, IPCC panel accepted invitation. Here we describe response devised within Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) tailored,...