A5049568580- Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Fire effects on ecosystems
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Rangeland and Wildlife Management
- Forest Management and Policy
- Peatlands and Wetlands Ecology
- Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Climate variability and models
- Remote Sensing in Agriculture
- Botany, Ecology, and Taxonomy Studies
- Archaeology and Natural History
- Economic and Environmental Valuation
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
- Climate change and permafrost
- Plant Ecology and Soil Science
- Pacific and Southeast Asian Studies
- Coastal wetland ecosystem dynamics
- Agricultural Economics and Policy
- Seismology and Earthquake Studies
- Water resources management and optimization
- Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies
- Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
United States Geological Survey
2014-2023
Western Geographic Science Center
2010-2022
Entertainment Industries Council
2017
United States Department of the Interior
2006-2017
Pacific Science Center
2016
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
2010
Land-cover change in the conterminous United States was quantified by interpreting from satellite imagery for a sample stratified 84 ecoregions. Gross and net changes between 11 land-cover classes were estimated 5 dates of Landsat (1973, 1980, 1986, 1992, 2000). An 673,000 km2(8.6%) States' land area experienced cover at least one time during study period. Forest largest decline any class with 97,000 km2 lost 1973 2000. The large forest prominent two regions highest percent overall change,...
Global environmental change scenarios have typically provided projections of land use and cover for a relatively small number regions or using coarse resolution spatial grid, only few major sectors. The coarseness global projections, in both thematic dimensions, often limits their direct utility at scales useful management. This paper describes methods to downscale land-use land-cover from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report Emission Scenarios ecological...
Information on future land‐use and land‐cover (LULC) change is needed to analyze the impact of LULC ecological processes. The U.S. Geological Survey has produced spatially explicit, thematically detailed projections for conterminous United States. Four qualitative quantitative scenarios were developed, with characteristics consistent Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES). four quantified (A1B, A2, B1, B2) served as input forecasting (FORE‐SCE)...
Summary A wide range of spatially explicit simulation models have been developed to forecast landscape dynamics, including for projecting changes in both vegetation and land use. While these generally as separate applications, each with a purpose audience, they share many common features. We present general framework, called state‐and‐transition model ( STSM ), which captures number features, accompanied by software product, ST‐Sim, build run such models. The method divides into set discrete...
Changes in land use and cover (LULC) can have profound effects on terrestrial carbon dynamics, yet their the global budget remain uncertain. While change impacts ecosystem dynamics been focus of numerous studies, few efforts based observational data incorporating multiple types spanning large geographic areas over long time horizons. In this study we a variety synoptic-scale remote sensing to estimate effect LULC changes associated with urbanization, agricultural expansion contraction,...
In addition to biodiversity conservation, California rangelands generate multiple ecosystem services including livestock production, drinking and irrigation water, carbon sequestration. rangeland ecosystems have experienced substantial conversion residential land use more intensive agriculture. To understand the potential impacts services, we developed six spatially explicit (250 m) climate/land change scenarios for Central Valley of surrounding foothills consistent with three...
Water shortages in California are a growing concern amidst ongoing drought, earlier spring snowmelt, projected future climate warming, and currently mandated water use restrictions. Increases population land coming decades will place additional pressure on already limited available supplies. We used state-and-transition simulation model to project changes developed (municipal industrial) agricultural estimate associated demand from 2012 2062. Under current efficiency rates, total was...
Abstract Changes in land use and cover (LULC) have important fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top‐down scale projections of change been an component research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal this study was develop approach for projecting changes LULC based on histories demographic trends. We developed a set stochastic, empirical‐based state California, period 2001–2100. Land trends were used project “business‐as‐usual”...
Natural climate solutions (NCS) are recognized as an important tool for governments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and remove atmospheric carbon dioxide. Using California a globally relevant reference, we evaluate the magnitude of biological mitigation potential from NCS starting in 2020 under four change scenarios. By mid-century implementation leads large increase net stored, flipping state source sink two Forest conservation land management strategies make up 85% all reductions by...
Abstract The dynamic global vegetation model ( DGVM ) MC 2 was run over the conterminous USA at 30 arc sec (~800 m) to simulate impacts of nine climate futures generated by 3 GCM s CSIRO , MIROC and CGCM 3) using emission scenarios (A2, A1B B1) in context LandCarbon national carbon sequestration assessment. It first simulated potential dynamics from coast assuming no human naturally occurring wildfires. A moderate effect increased atmospheric CO on water use efficiency growth enhanced but...
Abstract Terrestrial ecosystems are an important sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), sequestering ~30% of annual anthropogenic emissions and slowing the rise CO . However, future direction magnitude land is highly uncertain. We examined how historical projected changes in climate, use, ecosystem disturbances affect balance terrestrial California over period 2001–2100. modeled 32 unique scenarios, spanning 4 use radiative forcing scenarios as simulated by four global climate models....
he Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, mandates the U.S. Department Interior to develop a methodology conduct an assessment Nation’s ecosystems, focusing on carbon stocks, sequestration, emissions three greenhouse gases (GHGs): dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, grasslands/shrublands; aquatic rivers, lakes, estuaries); (2) estimate annual potential...
Anthropogenic land use will likely present a greater challenge to biodiversity than climate change this century in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Even if species are equipped with adaptive capacity migrate face of changing climate, they encounter human-dominated landscape as major dispersal obstacle. Our goal was identify, at ecoregion-level, protected areas close proximity lands higher likelihood future land-use conversion. Using state-and-transition simulation model, we modeled spatially...
Quantifying the carbon balance of forested ecosystems has been subject intense study involving development numerous methodological approaches. Forest inventories, processes-based biogeochemical models, and inversion methods have all used to estimate contribution U.S. forests global terrestrial sink. However, estimates ranged widely, largely based on approach used, no single system is appropriate for operational quantification forecasting. We present obtained using a new spatially explicit...
We examine the impacts of climate on net returns from crop and livestock production resulting impact land-use change across contiguous USA. first estimate an econometric model to project effects weather fluctuations then use a semi-reduced form share study agricultural changes under future socio-economic scenarios. Estimation results show that are more sensitive thermal less moisture variability than returns; other land uses substitute cropland when 30-year averaged degree-days or...
Abstract Large‐scale terrestrial carbon (C) estimating studies using methods such as atmospheric inversion, biogeochemical modeling, and field inventories have produced different results. The goal of this study was to integrate fine‐scale processes including land use cover change into a large‐scale ecosystem framework. We analyzed the C budget conterminous United States from 1971 2015 at 1‐km resolution an enhanced dynamic global vegetation model comprehensive data. Effects CO 2...
Carbon storage potential has become an important consideration for land management and planning in the United States. The ability to assess ecosystem carbon balance can help managers understand benefits tradeoffs between different strategies. This paper demonstrates application of Land Use Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model developed local-scale at Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge. We estimate net by considering past disturbances resulting from storm damage, fire, actions including...
Increased land-use intensity (e.g. clearing of forests for cultivation, urbanization), often results in the loss ecosystem carbon storage, while changes productivity resulting from climate change may either help offset or exacerbate losses. However, there are large uncertainties how land and systems will evolve interact to shape future dynamics. To address this we developed Land Use Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) track use, cover, management, disturbance, their impact on storage flux...