Marc Baguelin
A5061272028- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Influenza Virus Research Studies
- Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
- Respiratory viral infections research
- Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Data-Driven Disease Surveillance
- COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
- Disaster Response and Management
- COVID-19 and healthcare impacts
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- COVID-19 and Mental Health
- COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies
- Animal Disease Management and Epidemiology
- Viral gastroenteritis research and epidemiology
- Health disparities and outcomes
- Pneumonia and Respiratory Infections
- COVID-19 Digital Contact Tracing
- Global Health Care Issues
- Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Viral Infections and Vectors
- Bayesian Methods and Mixture Models
- SARS-CoV-2 detection and testing
- Simulation Techniques and Applications
- Gene Regulatory Network Analysis
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
2016-2025
National Centre for Infectious Diseases
2020-2025
Imperial College London
2019-2024
Medical Research Council
2020-2024
University of London
2011-2024
The University of Melbourne
2024
National Institute for Health Research
2021-2023
Commonwealth Foundation
2023
Wellcome Trust
2023
Public Health England
2013-2022
BackgroundIn the face of rapidly changing data, a range case fatality ratio estimates for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been produced that differ substantially in magnitude. We aimed to provide robust estimates, accounting censoring and ascertainment biases.MethodsWe collected individual-case data patients who died from COVID-19 Hubei, mainland China (reported by national provincial health commissions Feb 8, 2020), cases outside (from government or ministry websites media reports...
The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is most serious seen in a respiratory virus since 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Here we present results epidemiological modelling which informed policymaking UK other countries recent weeks. In absence vaccine, assess potential role number measures – so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) aimed at reducing contact rates population thereby transmission virus. presented here, apply previously...
Global prospects for COVID-19 control Lower-income countries have recognized the potential impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from observing ongoing epidemics. Many intervened quickly and early with measures to slow viral transmission, which may partly explain low rates observed so far in these countries. Walker et al. calibrated a global model country-specific data (see Perspective by Metcalf ). Despite potentially protective effects younger demographics, closer intergenerational...
SummaryBackgroundCOVID-19 has the potential to cause substantial disruptions health services, due cases overburdening system or response measures limiting usual programmatic activities. We aimed quantify extent which services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income middle-income countries with high burdens of these diseases could lead additional loss life over next 5 years.MethodsAssuming a basic reproduction number 3·0, we constructed four scenarios possible responses COVID-19...
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have sought control SARS-CoV-2 transmission by restricting population movement through social distancing interventions, thus reducing number of contacts. Mobility data represent an important proxy measure distancing, and here, we characterise relationship between mobility for 52 around world. Transmission significantly decreased with initial reduction in 73% analysed, but found evidence decoupling following relaxation strict measures 80%...
Age-specific contact How can the resurgent epidemics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) during 2020 be explained? Are they a result students going back to school? To address this question, Monod et al. created matrix for infection based on data collected in Europe and China extended it United States. Early pandemic, before interventions were widely implemented, contacts concentrated among individuals similar age highest school-aged children, between children...
Marc Baguelin and colleagues use virological, clinical, epidemiological, behavioral data to estimate how policies for influenza vaccination programs may be optimized in England Wales. Please see later the article Editors' Summary
Summary Background A range of case fatality ratio (CFR) estimates for COVID-19 have been produced that differ substantially in magnitude. Methods We used individual-case data from mainland China and cases detected outside to estimate the time between onset symptoms outcome (death or discharge hospital). next obtained age-stratified CFR by relating aggregate distribution dates observed cumulative deaths China, assuming a constant attack rate age adjusting demography population, age-...
WHO has called for increased testing in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, but countries have taken different approaches and effectiveness of alternative strategies is unknown. We aimed investigate potential impact isolation on transmission severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).
Abstract Background After experiencing a sharp growth in COVID-19 cases early the pandemic, South Korea rapidly controlled transmission while implementing less stringent national social distancing measures than countries Europe and USA. This has led to substantial interest their “test, trace, isolate” strategy. However, it is important understand epidemiological peculiarities of Korea’s outbreak characterise response before attempting emulate these elsewhere. Methods We systematically...
The burden of malaria is heavily concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where cases and deaths associated with COVID-19 are rising1. In response, countries implementing societal measures aimed at curtailing transmission SARS-CoV-22,3. Despite these measures, the epidemic could still result millions as local health facilities become overwhelmed4. Advances control this century have been largely due to distribution long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs)5, many SSA having planned campaigns for...
Abstract As of 1st June 2020, the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention reported 104,232 confirmed or probable COVID-19-related deaths in US. This was more than twice number next most severely impacted country. We jointly model epidemic at state-level, using publicly available death data within a Bayesian hierarchical semi-mechanistic framework. For each state, we estimate individuals that have been infected, are currently infectious time-varying reproduction (the average secondary...
Virus-virus interactions influence the epidemiology of respiratory infections. However, impact viruses causing upper infections on severe acute syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) replication and transmission is currently unknown. Human rhinoviruses cause common cold are most prevalent humans. Interactions between cocirculating have been shown to shape virus at individual host population level. Here, we examined kinetics SARS-CoV-2 in human epithelium presence or absence rhinovirus. We show...
A SARS-CoV-2 transmission model fitted to surveillance data estimates virus transmissibility, infection severity, and the impact of interventions.
Background: Between August and November 2014, the incidence of Ebola virus disease (EVD) rose dramatically in several districts Sierra Leone.As a result, number cases exceeded capacity holding treatment centres.During December, additional beds were introduced, declined many areas.We aimed to measure patterns transmission different regions, evaluate whether bed is now sufficient meet future demand.Methods: We used mathematical model EVD infection estimate how extent nine worst affected Leone...
Summary Brazil is an epicentre for COVID-19 in Latin America. In this report we describe the Brazilian epidemic using three epidemiological measures: number of infections, deaths and reproduction number. Our modelling framework requires sufficient death data to estimate trends, therefore limit our analysis 16 states that have experienced a total more than fifty deaths. The distribution among highly heterogeneous, with 5 states—Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Ceara, Pernambuco Amazonas—accounting...
Epidemics are often modeled using non-linear dynamical systems observed through partial and noisy data. In this paper, we consider stochastic extensions in order to capture unknown influences (changing behaviors, public interventions, seasonal effects, etc.). These models assign diffusion processes the time-varying parameters, our inferential procedure is based on a suitably adjusted adaptive particle Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The performance of proposed computational methods...
<ns4:p><ns4:bold>Background</ns4:bold>: The COVID-19 epidemic was declared a Global Pandemic by WHO on 11 March 2020. By 24 2020, over 440,000 cases and almost 20,000 deaths had been reported worldwide. In response to the fast-growing epidemic, which began in Chinese city of Wuhan, Hubei, China imposed strict social distancing Wuhan 23 January 2020 followed closely similar measures other provinces. These interventions have impacted economic productivity China, ability economy resume without...