A5031676709- Political Conflict and Governance
- Peacebuilding and International Security
- Global Peace and Security Dynamics
- Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence
- International Development and Aid
- Corruption and Economic Development
- Politics and Conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Middle East
- Agricultural risk and resilience
- Culture, Economy, and Development Studies
- Transboundary Water Resource Management
- Electoral Systems and Political Participation
- Historical and Contemporary Political Dynamics
- Populism, Right-Wing Movements
- South Asian Studies and Conflicts
- Natural Resources and Economic Development
- Health and Conflict Studies
- World Systems and Global Transformations
- Crime, Illicit Activities, and Governance
- African history and culture analysis
- Gender Politics and Representation
- Asian Geopolitics and Ethnography
- Religion and Society Interactions
- Income, Poverty, and Inequality
- Religion, Society, and Development
- African studies and sociopolitical issues
Uppsala University
2013-2024
Peace Research Institute Oslo
2010-2023
Swedish Academy
2020
Institute for Conflict Research
2010
To date, the research community has failed to reach a consensus on nature and significance of relationship between climate variability armed conflict. We argue that progress been hampered by insufficient attention paid context in which droughts other climatic extremes may increase risk violent mobilization. Addressing this shortcoming, study presents an actor-oriented analysis drought-conflict relationship, focusing specifically politically relevant ethnic groups their sensitivity...
Abstract Are UN peacekeepers effective in protecting civilians from violence? Existing studies examine this issue at the country level, thereby making it difficult to isolate effect of and assess actual mechanism work. We provide first comprehensive evaluation peacekeeping success subnational level. argue that through their sizable local presence can increase political military costs for warring actors engage civilian targeting. Since peacekeepers’ access populations rests on government...
A recent Climatic Change review article reports a remarkable convergence of scientific evidence for link between climatic events and violent intergroup conflict, thus departing markedly from other contemporary assessments the empirical literature. This commentary revisits in order to understand discrepancy. We believe origins disagreement can be traced back article's underlying quantitative meta-analysis, which suffers shortcomings with respect sample selection analytical coherence. modified...
Political violence remains a pervasive feature of electoral dynamics in many countries Sub-Saharan Africa, even where multiparty elections have become the dominant mode regulating access to political power. With cross-national data on African between 1990 and 2010, this article develops tests theory that links use violent tactics high stakes put place by majoritarian institutions. It is found more likely employ voting rules elect fewer legislators from each district. Majoritarian...
While case-based narratives from civil wars often stress the ethnic dimension of civilian atrocities, cross-national studies have found limited evidence in support such contentions. Addressing this debate, we argue that warring actors use affiliation to identify groups suspected enemy supporters when individual wartime affiliations are not known. Since depend on their constituencies for support, collective targeting enemy’s co-ethnics becomes a strategy weakening capacity. Armed thus more...
This article argues that, contrary to received wisdom, political corruption is not necessarily associated with a higher risk of civil war in oil-rich states. Political can be used accommodate opposition and placate restive groups by offering private privilege exchange for loyalty. Since oil wealth large rents accruing state treasuries, it provides an economic foundation such clientelist rule. thus that governments use buy support from key segments society, effectively outspending other...
Rebel groups that confront the government frequently become engaged in fierce and violent struggles with other groups. Why does a rebel group who is already fighting yet another struggle, thereby sacrificing scarce resources fight against groups? This article addresses this puzzle by providing first global study on determinants of interrebel violence. The authors argue violence should be understood as means to secure material political leverage can help prevail conflict government....
This article presents ViEWS – a political violence early-warning system that seeks to be maximally transparent, publicly available, and have uniform coverage, sketches the methodological innovations required achieve these objectives. produces monthly forecasts at country subnational level for 36 months into future all three UCDP types of organized violence: state-based conflict, non-state one-sided in Africa. The methodology data behind forecasts, evaluates their predictive performance,...
Recent research identifies state capacity as a crucial determinant of civil peace. Scholars often interpret the association between wealth and peace effects, but they have not clearly distinguished impact administrative reach for coercion from those effects that may capture good governance related to provision political goods quality institutions.We revisit relationship by suggesting three different pathways through which avoids violent challenges its authority: coercion, co-optation,...
Recent years have seen a surge of literature examining how political institutions influence the risk civil conflict. A comparatively neglected aspect this debate has been heterogeneous impact different forms authoritarianism. In article, I theoretically and empirically unpack authoritarian regime category. argue that regimes differ both in their capacity to forcefully control opposition ability co-opt rivals through offers power positions rents. Authoritarian thus exhibit predictable...
This article examines the role of economic inequality in influencing risk armed conflict between communal groups Sub-Saharan Africa. We argue that socioeconomic can generate intergroup grievances, which, due to exclusionary legitimacy African state and elite incentives engage competitive mobilization groups, precipitate violent conflict. To examine this argument, we rely on a series household surveys construct subnational measures. For each region, calculate measures terms welfare education...
In this article, we introduce the Geocoded Peacekeeping Operations (Geo-PKO) dataset, which presents new data on subnational peacekeeping deployment for all UN missions to Africa, 1994–2014. The Geo-PKO dataset is most comprehensive of its kind and enables scholars address questions about operations their effects by exploring variations in at level. offers information several key features local level, such as size deployments how these vary over time, well location mission headquarters, type...
Existing research on the causes of electoral violence has focused structural determinants and election-specific characteristics but paid less attention to role political agents that contest elections. This study addresses this gap by examining relationship between organizational strength parties risk violence. The argues strong enhance prospect for peaceful dynamics two reasons. First, having party organizations reduce incentives violent manipulation because these enable more cost-efficient...
What are the political and economic consequences of contention (i.e., genocide, civil war, state repression/human rights violation, terrorism, protest)? Despite a significant amount interest as well quantitative research, literature on this subject remains underdeveloped imbalanced across topic areas. To date, investigations have been focused particular forms specific consequences. While research has led to some important insights, substantial limitations—as opportunities for future...
There is surprisingly little empirical scholarship on the spread of capitalistic economic policies under rubric ‘globalization’ and domestic peace. While classical liberals saw free markets leading to social harmony because self-interest individuals, who cooperate for profit, Marxists others viewed as anarchical, requiring state intervention obtaining justice The authors argue from an opportunity-cost perspective that payoffs rebellion are structured by how economy governed. Closed economies...
Abstract How does the deployment and withdrawal of UN peacekeepers affect local economic development in civil war countries? This study provides a large-N subnational analysis across peacekeeping operations that assesses their impact on economy both during after withdrawal. We expect positive association between development. Besides providing sizeable cash injection into economy, can safeguard resumption everyday exchanges at grassroots level influx aid projects. To test this, we combine...
What accounts for the difference between peaceful and violent elections in semi-authoritarian countries? This article analyses influence of electoral management bodies (EMBs) on likelihood widespread violence triggered by opposition protest during election times. It is argued that establishing inclusive collaborative relationships through which political actors can jointly negotiate important issues, EMBs incentive structure major stakeholders favour non-violent strategies. The relationship...
In recent years, international third parties have increasingly sought to manage the dire consequences of civil war, often by deploying peacekeeping operations. However, peacekeepers sometimes face deliberate attacks armed groups. These hamper efforts provide humanitarian relief and security. This raises a critical question: what factors lead rebel groups target peacekeepers? We argue that internal conflict dynamics are important for explaining this phenomenon. Rebels attack as an alternative...
Why do the first multiparty elections after authoritarian rule turn violent in some countries but not others? This article places legacies from past at core of an explanation when democratic openings become associated with electoral violence multi-ethnic states, and complement existing research focused on immediate conditions surrounding elections. We argue that characterized by more exclusionary coalitions creates amplify risk during shift to politics. Through competitive fragmented...
This paper investigates whether types of dictatorships differ systematically when it comes to the protection property rights. Differentiating between monarchies, military regimes, one-party and multiparty autocracies, argues that different dictatorial institutions create incentives protect enforce contracts by influencing time horizon ruling elite. Where rulers fear losing power regime insiders are uncertain about their own political survival beyond dictator, expropriation is more likely...
Fragmentation of armed opposition movements through the rise new rebel groups constitutes a significant challenge to conflict termination and peacebuilding. Yet, question why some remain cohesive whereas others see number contending during course has received limited attention in existing research. This article addresses this gap by analyzing determinants contenders intrastate conflicts worldwide, 1975–2013. The theoretical framework focuses on barriers entry, that is, variations costs...