A5073194538- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Quantum Chromodynamics and Particle Interactions
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- High-Energy Particle Collisions Research
- Particle physics theoretical and experimental studies
- Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Ocean Acidification Effects and Responses
- Aerodynamics and Fluid Dynamics Research
- Thermal Analysis in Power Transmission
- Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
- High voltage insulation and dielectric phenomena
- Marine and environmental studies
- Global Energy and Sustainability Research
- Black Holes and Theoretical Physics
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Coastal and Marine Management
- Innovation Policy and R&D
Adolfo Ibáñez University
2021-2025
Data Observatory Foundation
2022-2024
Universidad del Norte
2023
University of California, Los Angeles
2017-2022
NOAA Oceanic and Atmospheric Research
2019
University of Wisconsin–Madison
2016-2017
Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile
2008-2010
Abstract The probability distribution of daily precipitation intensities, especially the extremes, impacts a wide range applications. In most regions this decays slowly with size at first, approximately as power law an exponent between 0 and −1, then more sharply, for values larger than characteristic cutoff scale. This is important because it limits extreme occurrences in current climate. There long history representing using gamma distribution—here we present theory how distributions get...
Abstract Two catastrophic extreme precipitation events in July 2021 and August 1975 caused tremendous damages deaths Henan, one of the most populated provinces China. Revealing relationship between large‐scale circulation patterns extremes is vital for understanding physical mechanisms providing potential value improving prediction hence reducing impacts. Here, nine are identified July–August using self‐organizing map. We find daily under fifth pattern (P5), characterized with strongest...
Abstract Purpose of Review: Review our current understanding how precipitation is related to its thermodynamic environment, i.e., the water vapor and temperature in surroundings, implications for changes extremes a warmer climate. Recent Findings: Multiple research threads have i) sought empirical relationships that govern onset strong convective precipitation, or might identify scale with temperature; ii) examined such change global regional climate models under warming scenarios; iii)...
Abstract Precipitation sustains life and supports human activities, making its prediction one of the most societally relevant challenges in weather climate modeling. Limitations modeling precipitation underscore need for diagnostics metrics to evaluate simulations predictions. While routine use basic is important documenting model skill, more sophisticated aimed at connecting biases their sources revealing characteristics how used are critical improving models uses. This paper illustrates...
Daily precipitation extremes are projected to intensify with increasing moisture under global warming following the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relationship at about [Formula: see text]. However, this increase is not spatially homogeneous. Projections in individual models exhibit regions substantially larger increases than expected from CC scaling. Here, we leverage theory and observations of form probability distribution improve intermodel agreement medium high intensity regime, interpret...
Abstract Coastal El Niño events—marine heatwaves instances in the far eastern Tropical Pacific during otherwise basin-scale neutral or cold conditions—can have severe societal impacts for countries along west coast of South America, as exemplified by 2017 and 2023 Peru-Ecuador floods. Due to brevity observational record, it is not well understood whether these events are driven local large-scale processes. Here, overcome this limitation we use a data-driven modeling approach address their...
Abstract Marine heatwaves have profoundly impacted marine ecosystems over large areas of the world oceans, calling for improved understanding their dynamics and predictability. Here, we critically review recent substantial advances in this active area research, including exploration three-dimensional structure evolution these extremes, drivers, connection with other extremes ocean land, future projections, assessment predictability current prediction skill. To make progress on predicting...
Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have caused devasting ecological and socioeconomic impacts worldwide. Understanding the connection of regional events to large‐scale climatic drivers is key for enhancing predictability mitigating MHW impacts. Despite reported between MHWs globally El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), establishing statistically significant links different types ENSO remains challenging due limited duration observational data. Here, we use 10,000 years...
Abstract Precipitation accumulations, integrated over precipitation events in hourly data, are examined from 1979 to 2013 the contiguous United States during warm season (May–October). As expected theory, accumulation distributions have a characteristic shape, with an approximate power law decrease event size followed by exponential drop at cutoff scale s L for each location. This is predictor of highest percentiles and similarly defined daily P . Comparing 1997–2013 1979–1995 periods, there...
Abstract Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, are investigated using hourly data across continental China during the warm season (May–October) from 1980 to 2015. Physically, probability of precipitation accumulations drops slowly with event size up an approximately exponential cutoff scale s L where much faster. Hence can be used as indicator high accumulation percentiles (i.e., extreme accumulations). Overall, climatology is about 54 mm. In terms changes, current...
Abstract This study investigates future changes in daily precipitation extremes and the involved physics over global land monsoon (GM) region using climate models from phase 6 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The extreme is identified by cutoff scale, measuring tail distribution. Compared to historical period, multimodel results reveal a continuous increase under four scenarios, with progressively higher fraction exceeding scale when moving into future. rise end century...
The semihadronic tau decay width allows a clean extraction of the strong coupling constant at low energies. We present modification standard "contour improved" method based on derivative expansion Adler function. approach eliminates ambiguities coming from existence different integral expressions for ratio. Compared to method, renormalization scale dependence is by more than factor two weaker in modified contour improved perturbation theory. last term reduced, and scheme remains...
Abstract Previous studies indicate an asymmetry in the amplitude and persistence of El Niño (EN) La Niña (LN) events. We show that this observed EN‐LN can be captured with a linear model driven by correlated additive multiplicative (CAM) noise, without resorting to deterministic nonlinear model. The is derived from 1‐month lag statistics taken monthly sea surface temperature (SST) data sets spanning twentieth century, extension empirical‐dynamical technique called Linear Inverse Modeling....
Abstract Quantitative simulation of precipitation in current climate has been an ongoing challenge for global models. Despite serious biases correctly simulating probabilities extreme rainfall events, model simulations under warming scenarios are routinely used to provide estimates future changes these probabilities. To minimize the impact biases, past literature tends evaluate fractional (instead absolute) extremes assumption that would be more reliable. However, formal tests validity this...
Abstract The performance of GCMs in simulating daily precipitation probability distributions is investigated by comparing 35 CMIP6 models against observational datasets (TRMM-3B42 and GPCP). In these datasets, PDFs on wet days follow a power-law range for low moderate intensities below characteristic cutoff scale. Beyond the scale, drops much faster, hence controlling size extremes given climate. satellite products analyzed, have no interior peak. Contributions to first second moments tend...
A theoretical framework is developed for understanding the transient growth and propagation characteristics of thermodynamically coupled, meridional mode–like structures in tropics. The model consists a Gill–Matsuno-type steady atmosphere under long-wave approximation coupled via wind–evaporation–sea surface temperature (WES) feedback to “slab” ocean model. When projected onto basis functions system simplifies nonnormal set equations that describes evolution individual sea (SST) modes, with...
Abstract This study uses a simple linear coupled model to investigate the role of WES feedback and ITCZ mean states in meridional mode variability. Optimal structures that maximize transient growth are calculated for characteristic boreal spring fall tropical Atlantic. During leading optimal structure is zonal propagates westward does not resemble observed mode. In contrast, during sea surface temperature (SST) monopole over Northern Hemisphere (NH) equatorward closely matches variability...
Previous studies have investigated the role of Pacific meridional mode (PMM), a climate mid-latitudes in Northern and Southern Hemisphere, favoring development El Niño Oscillation (ENSO). However little is known on how ENSO can influence PMM. Here we investigate relationship between South Meridional Mode (SPMM) focusing strong SPMM events that follows events. This type represents more than 60% such observational record historical simulations CESM Large ensemble (CESM-LE). It first shown...
Abstract The most commonly used version of a linear inverse model (LIM) is forced by state-independent noise. Although having several desirable qualities, this formulation can only generate long-term Gaussian statistics. LIM-like systems correlated additive–multiplicative (CAM) noise have been shown to deviations from Gaussianity, but parameter estimation methods are known in the univariate case, limiting their use for study coupled variability. This paper presents methodology calculate...
Abstract Numerous oceanic and atmospheric phenomena influence El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, complicating both prediction analysis of the mechanisms responsible for generating ENSO diversity. Predictability events depends on characteristics forecast initial conditions stochastic forcing that occurs subsequent to initialization. Within a linear inverse model framework, reduces predictability when it excites unpredictable growth or interference after is initialized, but also...
Abstract A Lagrangian model—the Hybrid Single-Particle Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT)—is used to quantify changes in moisture sources and paths for precipitation over North China’s Henan Province associated with tropical cyclone (TC) the western Pacific (WNP) during July–August of 1979–2021. During TC-active periods, an anomalous WNP enhances southeasterly reduces southwesterly transport Henan. Accordingly, compared TC-inactive contributions from Ocean (PO), eastern China (EC), local...
In this article we address the problem of getting temperature dependence $\ensuremath{\pi}\mathrm{\text{\ensuremath{-}}}\ensuremath{\pi}$ scattering lengths in frame linear sigma model. Using real time formalism, calculate all relevant one loop diagrams. The corrections are only considered pion sector, due to Boltzmann suppression for heavier fields like meson. From analysis obtain thermal behavior s waves ${a}_{0}^{0}$ and ${a}_{0}^{2}$ associated isospin $I=0$ $I=2$, respectively. If...