A5066297582- Climate variability and models
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Coastal and Marine Dynamics
- Oil Spill Detection and Mitigation
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Risk and Safety Analysis
- Coastal and Marine Management
- Aeolian processes and effects
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Public Relations and Crisis Communication
- Ocean Acidification Effects and Responses
- Real-time simulation and control systems
- Sustainable Industrial Ecology
- Adventure Sports and Sensation Seeking
- Service and Product Innovation
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Markov Chains and Monte Carlo Methods
- Wind Energy Research and Development
- Global Energy and Sustainability Research
- Geological formations and processes
- Consumer Perception and Purchasing Behavior
- Simulation Techniques and Applications
NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory
2022-2025
University of Colorado Boulder
2023-2024
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences
2023-2024
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2004-2022
Georgia Institute of Technology
2020
École Centrale de Lille
2018
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
2018
Institut d'électronique de microélectronique et de nanotechnologie
2018
Université de Lille
2018
China University of Mining and Technology
2011
Marine heatwaves (MHWs)-extremely warm, persistent sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies causing substantial ecological and economic consequences-have increased worldwide in recent decades. Concurrent increases global temperatures suggest that climate change impacted MHW occurrences, beyond random changes arising from natural internal variability. Moreover, the long-term SST warming trend was not constant but instead had more rapid Here we show this nonlinear can-on its own-appear to...
Abstract The intensity of Northeast Pacific marine heatwaves (MHWs) has been related to local stochastic atmospheric forcing with limited predictability, but their evolution and persistence may be controlled by large‐scale climate influences. A Linear Inverse Model containing both sea surface temperature height (SSH) anomalies is used identify the “optimal” conditions for observed MHW events that developed two‐to‐four seasons later. These optimal initial include SSH are responsible most...
Abstract In this study the authors diagnose sources for contiguous U.S. seasonal forecast skill that are related to sea surface temperature (SST) variations using a combination of dynamical and empirical methods. The methods include ensemble simulations with four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by observed monthly global SSTs from 1950 1999, AGCM experiments idealized SST anomalies. involve suite reductions simulations. These uni- multivariate regression encapsulate...
Abstract Marine heatwaves have profoundly impacted marine ecosystems over large areas of the world oceans, calling for improved understanding their dynamics and predictability. Here, we critically review recent substantial advances in this active area research, including exploration three-dimensional structure evolution these extremes, drivers, connection with other extremes ocean land, future projections, assessment predictability current prediction skill. To make progress on predicting...
Abstract. Developing predictions of coastal flooding risk on subseasonal timescales (2–6 weeks in advance) is an emerging priority for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). In this study, we assess ability two current operational forecast systems, European Centre Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) de Recherches Météorologiques climate model (CNRM), to make ensemble non-tidal residual component water levels at United States gauge stations...
Communities globally are experiencing an increase in high tide flood (HTF) frequency. The present-day impact of HTF for communities is expansive and recurrent, ranging from disrupted activities infrastructure, inundated stormwater wastewater systems, increased public health hazards.  Accurate estimates the probability density functions (PDFs), especially extreme water levels, essential quantifying risks coastal flooding. In this work, we decompose still levels measured at 148 gauge...
Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have caused devasting ecological and socioeconomic impacts worldwide. Understanding the connection of regional events to large‐scale climatic drivers is key for enhancing predictability mitigating MHW impacts. Despite reported between MHWs globally El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), establishing statistically significant links different types ENSO remains challenging due limited duration observational data. Here, we use 10,000 years...
Abstract Some questions remain concerning the record‐breaking 2013–2015 Northeast Pacific marine heatwave (MHW) event: was it exceptional or merely most pronounced of a group similar events, and its intensity multiyear duration driven by internal extratropical processes did tropics play an important role? By analyzing statistical behavior historical MHWs within ERSST.v3 data set over 1950–2019 period, we find that occurred continuum intensities durations, suggesting these events are...
Abstract Assessing uncertainty in future climate projections requires understanding both internal variability and external forcing. For this reason, single‐model initial condition large ensembles (SMILEs) run with Earth System Models (ESMs) have recently become popular. Here we present a new 20‐member SMILE the Energy Exascale Model version 1 (E3SMv1‐LE), which uses “macro” initialization strategy choosing coupled atmosphere/ocean states based on inter‐basin contrasts ocean heat content...
Abstract The inner shelf, the transition zone between surfzone and midshelf, is a dynamically complex region with evolution of circulation stratification driven by multiple physical processes. Cross-shelf exchange through shelf has important implications for coastal water quality, ecological connectivity, lateral movement sediment heat. Inner-Shelf Dynamics Experiment (ISDE) was an intensive, coordinated, multi-institution field experiment from September–October 2017, conducted into near...
Abstract The climate system can be numerically represented by a set of physically based dynamical equations whose solution requires substantial computational resources. This makes computationally efficient, low dimensional emulators that simulate trajectories the underlying an attractive alternative for model evaluation and diagnosis. We suggest since such emulator must adequately capture anomaly evolution, its construction should employ grid search technique where maximum forecast skill...
Abstract Bottom Temperature anomalies (BTA) along the North American West Coast strongly influence benthic and demersal marine species. However, to date seasonal BTA forecast efforts have been limited sources of predictability largely undiagnosed. Here, an empirical model called a Linear Inverse Model (LIM), constructed from high‐resolution ocean reanalysis, is developed predict BTAs diagnose predictive skill. The LIM considerably more skillful than damped persistence, particularly in...
In 2017, an ocean research team launched unprecedented effort to understand what drives currents in the overlap regions between surf zones and continental shelves.
Deploying Tidal Energy Converters for electricity generation requires prior-knowledge of the potential Annual Production (AEP) at site, Ideally using a year-long tidal current record proposed site to minimize uncertainty. However, such records are often unavailable. Fortunately, periodic nature variability, International Electrotechnical Commission Technical Specification energy resource assessment AEP calculation least 90 days each turbine location. The sensitivity different durations has...
Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies with substantial ecological and economic consequences. Observations of MHWs based on relatively short instrumental records, which limit the ability to forecast these events decadal longer timescales. Paleoclimate reconstructions can extend observational record help evaluate model performance under near future conditions, but paleo-MHW have received little attention, primarily because marine sediments lack temporal...
Abstract Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have caused devasting ecological and socioeconomic impacts worldwide. Understanding the connection of regional events to large‐scale climatic drivers is key for enhancing predictability mitigating MHW impacts. Despite reported between MHWs globally El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), establishing statistically significant links different types ENSO remains challenging due limited duration observational data. Here, we use 10,000 years simulations from a...
The Northeast Pacific Ocean has experienced episodes of intense and persistent warm conditions, also known as marine heatwaves, with devastating ecological impacts. Being able to predict these extreme events a few seasons in advance is therefore very important, but proven elusive many cases. While the intensity heatwaves been related local stochastic atmospheric forcing limited predictability, their evolution persistence may be controlled by large-scale climate...