A5081135377- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Climate variability and models
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Isotope Analysis in Ecology
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Catalysis and Hydrodesulfurization Studies
- Climate change and permafrost
- Paleontology and Stratigraphy of Fossils
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Oil Spill Detection and Mitigation
- Tree-ring climate responses
- Marine and fisheries research
- Water Resources and Management
- Vehicle emissions and performance
- Mesoporous Materials and Catalysis
- Zeolite Catalysis and Synthesis
- Earthquake Detection and Analysis
- Environmental Impact and Sustainability
NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory
2018-2025
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences
2010-2025
University of Colorado Boulder
2016-2025
NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
2004-2023
University of Colorado System
2022
Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey
2019
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
2019
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2019
University of South Florida St. Petersburg
2010-2015
College of Marin
2010-2015
[1] Using a multivariate, "patterns-based", red noise approach to 42 years of observed tropical SST, thermocline depth, and zonal wind stress seasonal anomalies, it is shown that natural random variations can account for the variability Central Pacific (CP) Eastern (EP) ENSO events. The recent multidecadal increase in number CP events relative EP events, which has been hypothesized be connected anthropogenic change state ocean, also found consistent with multivariate hence stationary...
Abstract ROMS, a high-resolution regional ocean model, was used to study how climate change may affect the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. A control (CTRL) simulation conducted for recent past (1976–2005), and simulations with additional forcing at surface lateral boundaries, obtained from three different global models (GCMs) using RCP8.5 scenario, were represent future (2070–99). The response difference between CTRL each of simulations. All ROMS indicated large increases in sea temperatures...
A coupled model simulates a shallower and weaker North Atlantic Deep Water circulation at the Last Glacial Maximum, compared to modern, with an enhanced intrusion of Antarctic Bottom into Atlantic. These changes are caused by formation, which is triggered equatorward sea‐ice transport, ultimately increased westerlies, in Southern Ocean Maximum.
Simulations with the NCAR Climate System Model (CSM), a global, coupled ocean‐atmosphere‐sea ice model, for last glacial‐interglacial cycle reproduce recent estimates, based on alkenones and Mg/Ca ratios, of sea surface temperature (SST) changes gradients in tropical Pacific predict weaker El Niños/La Niñas compared to present Holocene stronger Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Changes LGM (Holocene) are traced weakening (strengthening) zonal SST gradient, wind stresses, upwelling sharpening...
The relative importance of tropical SST anomalies to the dominant variability East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) circulation is investigated using an atmospheric general model and a linear inverse model. It found that cooling over central Pacific crucial in developing maintaining summertime northwest anticyclones, associated with EASM precipitation. In this regard, previously suggested El Niño event preceding winter accompanying Indian Ocean warming alone may not be enough predict strength...
Abstract Paleoclimatic evidence suggests that during the mid-Holocene epoch (about 6000 yr ago) North America and Africa were significantly drier wetter, respectively, than at present. Modeling efforts to attribute these differences changes in orbital parameters greenhouse gas (GHG) levels have had limited success, especially over America. In this study, importance of a possibly cooler tropical Pacific Ocean (akin permanent La Niña–like perturbation present climate) causing is emphasized....
Abstract A Linear Inverse Model (LIM) is constructed to evaluate predictability of seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) and height (SSH) anomalies over the ice‐free global ocean. Its ensemble‐mean hindcast skill also compared that North American Multi‐Model Ensemble (NMME) for 1982–2010. Both have similar dominant modes SST variability, but regional NMME somewhat higher in many locations. However, LIM has considerably more Atlantic Southern Ocean SSH skill. Skill generally comparable along...
Abstract. We present the development and evaluation of MOM6-COBALT-NWA12 version 1.0, a 1/12∘ model ocean dynamics biogeochemistry in northwest Atlantic Ocean. This is built using new regional capabilities MOM6 coupled with Carbon, Ocean Biogeochemistry Lower Trophics (COBALT) biogeochemical Sea Ice Simulator version-2 (SIS2) sea ice model. Our goal was to develop provide information support living-marine-resource applications across management time horizons from seasons decades. To do this,...
Abstract The need for skillful seasonal prediction of coastal sea level anomalies (SLAs) has become increasingly evident as climate change increased flooding risks. Here, we evaluate nine current forecast systems by calculating deterministic and probabilistic skill from their retrospective forecasts (“hindcasts”) over 1995-2015, lead times up to 6-9 months, at two United States tide gauge stations (Charleston, SC San Diego, CA). Additionally, assess local enhancement...
Communities globally are experiencing an increase in high tide flood (HTF) frequency. The present-day impact of HTF for communities is expansive and recurrent, ranging from disrupted activities infrastructure, inundated stormwater wastewater systems, increased public health hazards.  Accurate estimates the probability density functions (PDFs), especially extreme water levels, essential quantifying risks coastal flooding. In this work, we decompose still levels measured at 148 gauge...
Global mean sea level rapidly increased during the 20th century, at a rate that doubled in past few decades. satellite altimetry records, which have only been available since 1993, additionally shown recent rise is neither spatially uniform nor linear time. However, this change over such short period likely convolves externally forced climate signal with natural variability, and separating these critical for coastal planners policymakers to account sea-level impacts on their communities....
The freshwater resources of the Southwestern United States (SWUS) largely depend on wintertime precipitation, which has declined since 1980. During this period, tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) exhibited a multi-decadal La Niña-like trend, inducing teleconnection that reduces SWUS precipitation. However, extent to SST trend is driven by internal variability (i.e., natural fluctuations) versus anthropogenic radiative forcings remains uncertain. This study explores two...
Abstract A cyclostationary linear inverse model (CSLIM) is used to investigate the seasonal growth of tropical Pacific Ocean El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events with canonical, central (CP), or eastern (EP) sea surface temperature (SST) characteristics. Analysis shows that all types ENSO experience maximum toward final states occurring in November and December. EP characteristics also into May June, but CP do not. single dominant “ENSO mode,” growing from an equatorial heat content...
The NCAR CSM is used to simulate the climate at Last Glacial Maximum. simulates a tropical SST cooling of 2.1°C. It shown that about half this associated with upper ocean circulation, especially ventilation thermocline and intermediate waters from mid/high latitude South Pacific.
Abstract The trend, connections between tropical ocean basins and dynamical processes on sea surface temperature (SST) height (SSH) forecast skill are investigated using a linear inverse model (LIM) framework. warming trend has strong influence 6‐month SST in the Indian Ocean, Western Pacific, north Atlantic, but little effect El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. ENSO strongly impacts all three including most of Ocean Atlantic. Without interactions with is substantially reduced...
A coupled climate model study indicates the paleoclimate record of glacial thermohaline circulation (THC) and reversed deep‐sea temperature‐salinity (T‐S) distribution in Atlantic can be explained largely by lower atmospheric CO 2 alone. The reduced leads to increased Southern Ocean wintertime sea‐ice cover salinity, production dense Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), enhanced cold saline AABW penetration into deep North Atlantic, oceanic vertical stability, Deep (NADW) circulation. dominant...
The effect of an enhanced subtropical surface cooling on El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through the "ocean tunnel" is investigated using a coupled model. Here, term refers to water pathway that connects equatorial upwelling subtropical/extratropical water. introduced reduction radiative–convective equilibrium SST (SSTp) in region. SSTp for region kept fixed. It found subtropics results regime with stronger ENSO. This because reduces temperature feeding undercurrent ocean tunnel....
Abstract Projected climate changes along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts were examined using eddy-resolving Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). First, a control (CTRL) ROMS simulation was performed boundary conditions derived from observations. Then change signals, obtained as mean seasonal cycle differences between recent past (1976–2005) future (2070–99) periods in coupled global model under RCP8.5 greenhouse gas trajectory, added to initial of CTRL second (RCP85) simulation. The RCP85...
Abstract Multiple tropical climate regimes are found in an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to a global slab ocean when the is forced by different values of globally uniform insolation. Even this simple setting, convection organizes into intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) solely due effect planetary rotation, as was Kirtman and Schneider, for single value Here response range insolation explored, surprisingly, multiple characterized radically ITCZ structures found. In...
Abstract The optimal anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) pattern for forcing North American drought is identified through atmospheric general circulation model integrations in which the response of Palmer severity index (PDSI) determined each 43 prescribed localized SST anomaly “patches” a regular array over tropical oceans. robustness and relevance are established consistency results obtained using two different models, also by good correspondence projection time series historical...
Abstract Low-order linear inverse models (LIMs) have been shown to be competitive with comprehensive coupled atmosphere–ocean at reproducing many aspects of tropical oceanic variability and predictability. This paper presents an extended cyclostationary model (CS-LIM) that includes the annual cycles background state stochastic forcing sea surface temperature (SST) height (SSH) anomalies. Compared a traditional stationary LIM ignores such cycles, CS-LIM is better representing seasonal...