Thorough censuses have been made of breeding birds on islands in Pymatuning Lake, a reservoir at the Pennsylvania—Ohio border. Analysis yields conclusion that for these variation number resident avian species with island size is which one would expect if were distributed randomly, probability pair residing an proportional to area and independent presence other pairs. This type random placement individuals can yield species—area relations differ from those commonly employed analysis...

Ground glass hepatocytes (GGHs) are the historic hallmarks for in late and non-replicative stages of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. We have identified type I II GGHs that contain two mutant types large HBV surface antigens (HBsAg) with deletions over pre-S 1 2 regions, respectively. These HBVsAg accumulate endoplasmic reticulum (ER), resulting strong ER stress. Type often appear hepatic nodules phases infection proliferate clusters, suggesting these /S HBsAg may be involved HBV-related...

Global dynamics of a compartmental model which describes virus propagation in vivo is studied using the direct Lyapunov method, where incidence rate infection and removal are assumed to be nonlinear. In case functional quotient between force nonincreasing function concentration, existence threshold parameter, i.e., basic reproduction number or reproductive ratio, established global stability equilibria discussed. Moreover, absence above‐mentioned monotonicity property, estimations for sizes...

A predator-prey model with disease infection in both populations is proposed to account for the possibility of a contagious crossing species barrier from prey predator. We obtain several threshold parameters local analysis various equilibria system as well coupled conditions on these which determine stability equilibria. One conditions, form an ecological number ecosystem, always determines coexistence predators and prey. The other condition, basic reproduction number, dictates whether will...

To study climatological and public health events which might have affected the 2007 two-wave dengue outbreak in Taiwan, an island with both tropical subtropical regions, where incidence exceeded combined total of previous four years.A multi-phase Richards model was fitted to weekly cumulative data pinpoint turning points outbreak. We obtained 'initial' reproduction numbers for two waves By means correlation analysis we explored possible impact on occurrence points.Three occurred around early...

The 2005 dengue outbreak in Singapore cumulated > 14,000 cases and 27 reported deaths. We fit the single-phase Richards model to weekly notification numbers detect turning point for outbreak, which enables us study impact of intervention measures relating point. results indicate that had most likely occurred late August or early September, before large-scale were implemented. “initial” reproduction number is estimated be ~1.89–2.23 (95% confidence interval: 1.15–3.00). One lessons learned...

Background. Since the emergence of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in 2012, more than 1,300 laboratory confirmed cases MERS-CoV infections have been reported Asia, North Africa, and Europe by July 2015. The recent nosocomial outbreak South Korea quickly became second largest such with 186 total 36 deaths a little one month, only to Saudi Arabia country-specific number cases. Methods. We use simple mathematical model, Richards trace temporal course outbreak. pinpoint...

The global properties of a predator-prey model with nonlinear functional response and stage structure for the predator are studied using Lyapunov functions LaSalle's invariance principle. It is found that, under hypotheses which ensure uniform persistence system existence unique positive steady state, feasible priori lower bound condition on abundance prey population ensures asymptotic stability state. A leads to extinction predators indicated. We also obtain results periodic solutions. In...

Abstract We used a single equation with discrete phases to fit the daily cumulative case data from 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak in Toronto. This model enabled us estimate turning points and numbers during 2 of this outbreak. The 3 estimated are March 25, April 27, May 24. number first phase between February 23 26 is 140.53 (95% confidence interval [CI] 115.88–165.17) if we use 4; 249 CI: 246.67–251.25) at end second on June 12 28 4. can be detected by using just days past...

Management of emerging infectious diseases such as the 2009 influenza pandemic A (H1N1) poses great challenges for real-time mathematical modeling disease transmission due to limited information on natural history and epidemiology, stochastic variation in course epidemics, changing case definitions surveillance practices. The Richards model its variants are used fit cumulative epidemic curve laboratory-confirmed H1N1 (pH1N1) infections Canada, made available by Public Health Agency Canada...

Studies indicate that asymptomatic infections do indeed occur frequently for both seasonal and pandemic influenza, accounting about one-third of influenza infections. carried out during the 2009 pH1N1 have found significant antibody response against H1N1 H3N2 vaccine strains in schoolchildren receiving only monovalent vaccine, yet reported either no symptoms or mild symptoms. Serum samples 255 schoolchildren, who had not received vaccination pre-season HI Ab serotiters <40, were collected...

Abstract We studied the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in Taiwan, using daily case-reporting data from May 5 to June 4 learn how it had spread so rapidly. Our results indicate that most SARS-infected persons symptoms and were admitted before their infections reclassified as probable cases. This finding could efficient admission, slow reclassification process, or both. The high percentage of nosocomial Taiwan suggests infection hospitalized patients with suspected, but not...

Abstract During the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Taiwan, >150,000 persons were quarantined, 24 whom later found to have laboratory-confirmed SARS-coronavirus (SARS-CoV) infection. Since no evidence exists that SARS-CoV is infective before onset symptoms and quarantined exposed but not symptomatic, we questioned quarantine’s effectiveness. Using SARS Taiwan quarantine data, onset-to-diagnosis time previously confirmed case-patients was significantly shortened...

Please cite this paper as: Hsieh Ying‐Hen. (2010) Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) during winter season in the southern hemisphere. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 4(4), 187–197. Background Countries hemisphere experienced sizable epidemics of pandemic H1N1 their May–August, 2009. Methods We make use Richards model to fit publicly available epidemic data (confirmed cases, hospitalizations, deaths) six countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa) draw useful...

From February to May, 2013, 132 human avian influenza H7N9 cases were identified in China resulting 37 deaths. We developed a novel, simple and effective compartmental modeling framework for transmissions among (wild domestic) birds as well from human, infer important epidemiological quantifiers, such basic reproduction number bird epidemic, bird-to-human infection rate turning points of the epidemics, epidemic via case onset data acquire useful information regarding transmission dynamics....