A5018177581- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Environmental Impact and Sustainability
- Income, Poverty, and Inequality
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Economic Theory and Policy
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- Advanced Image and Video Retrieval Techniques
- Computational Geometry and Mesh Generation
- Sustainable Development and Environmental Policy
- Fire effects on ecosystems
- Medical Image Segmentation Techniques
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Water resources management and optimization
- Sustainable Agricultural Systems Analysis
- Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics
- COVID-19 diagnosis using AI
- Urban Heat Island Mitigation
- Social Acceptance of Renewable Energy
- Delphi Technique in Research
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
2020-2025
Joint Global Change Research Institute
2020-2024
University Research Co (United States)
2021-2022
University of Maryland, College Park
2021-2022
Stabilizing climate change well below 2 °C and towards 1.5 requires comprehensive mitigation of all greenhouse gases (GHG), including both CO2 non-CO2 GHG emissions. Here we incorporate the latest global emissions data into a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model GCAM examine 90 scenarios pairing different levels abatement pathways. We estimate that when contributions are not fully implemented, timing net-zero must occur about two decades earlier. Conversely, integrates measures in...
Abstract Human-Earth System Models and Integrated Assessment used to explore the land-atmosphere implications of future land-use transitions generally lack dynamic representation urban lands. Here, we conduct an experiment incorporating urbanization in a multisector model framework. We integrate projected non-urban lands from with 2015 2100 at 1-km resolution examine 1 st -order land system, crop production, net primary production that can arise competition over resources. By 2100,...
Abstract. This paper describes GCAM-USA v5.3_water_dispatch, an open-source model that represents key interactions across economic, energy, water, and land systems in a consistent global framework with subnational detail the United States. divides world into 31 geopolitical regions outside States (US) US economy energy 51 state-level (50 states plus District of Columbia). The also includes 235 water basins 384 use regions, 23 each fall at least partially within offers level process temporal...
Zhao et al., (2024). gcamfaostat: An R package to prepare, process, and synthesize FAOSTAT data for global agroeconomic multisector dynamic modeling. Journal of Open Source Software, 9(96), 6388, https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.06388
<title>Abstract</title> Soil and vegetation carbon stocks play a critical role in human-Earth system models. These (denominated as densities MgC/ha) affect variables such land use change emissions also influence pathways under climate forcing scenarios where terrestrial is assigned price. Here we present reharmonized soil both at the 5-arcmin resolution grid cell level aggregated to 235 water sheds for 4 types (Cropland, Grazed land, Urban unmanaged vegetation) 15 cover types. Moreover,...
<title>Abstract</title> Reducing within-region income inequality is a global priority that needs to be urgently addressed promote human development and ensure population meets basic living standards. This could lead higher energy-related emissions by lower-income consumers, potentially creating some conflicts with climate change mitigation objectives. Using an enhanced version of the Global Change Analysis Model, we simulate reductions allow for narrowing differences in energy food demand...
Abstract Land scarcity is increasing over time, driven by complex multisector dynamics. The impacts of land on the economy and environment are multi‐faceted regional, so any action to convert will contain inherent tradeoffs. These complicated deeply uncertain evolution various sectors influencing scarcity. A need therefore exists provide multi‐metric multi‐sector assessments that robust myriad uncertainties. conservation effectively limits supply productive land, while biofuel consumption...
Abstract Understanding and projecting income distributions within countries regions is important to understanding consumption trends the distributional consequences of climate impacts responses. Several global, country-level projections distribution are available but most project only Gini coefficient (a summary statistic distribution) or utilize along with assumption a lognormal distribution. We test find that it typically underestimates in highest deciles over-estimates others. new model...
Abstract. Forestation can contribute to climate change mitigation. However, increasing frequency and intensity of extremes are posed have profound impact on forests consequently the mitigation potential forestation efforts. In this perspective, we critically assess forestation-reliant scenarios from five different integrated assessment models (IAMs) by showcasing spatially explicit exposure fire weather simulated increase in global annual burned area. We provide a detailed description...
Agricultural crop yields are susceptible to changes in future temperature, precipitation, and other Earth system factors. Future these physical attributes their effects on agricultural highly uncertain. United States producers will be affected by such whether they occur domestically or internationally through international commodity markets. Here we present a replication study of previous investigations (with different models) showing that potential direct domestic climate the U.S. have...
Analysis with integrated assessment models (IAMs) and multisector dynamics (MSDs) of global national challenges opportunities, including pursuit Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), requires projections economic growth. In turn, the multiple interacting goals affects productivity growth, generating complex feedback loops among actions objectives. Yet, most analysis uses either exogenous growth or specifications endogenously enriched a very small set drivers. Extending endogenous treatment...
Abstract. Forestation can contribute to climate change mitigation. However, an increasing frequency and intensity of extremes is posed have profound impact on forests, consequently the mitigation potential forestation efforts. In this perspective, we critically assess forestation-reliant scenarios from five different Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) by show-casing spatially explicit exposure forests fire weather simulated increase in global annual burned area. We provide a detailed...
Abstract. Data on income distributions within and across countries are becoming increasingly important for informing analysis of inequality understanding the distributional consequences climate change. While datasets distribution collected from household surveys available multiple countries, these often do not represent same concept (or concept) therefore make comparisons over time difficult. Here, we present a consistent dataset 190 1958 to 2015 measured in terms net income. We complement...
Abstract Income and its distribution profile are important determinants of residential energy demand carry direct implications for human well-being climate. We explore the sensitivity systems to income growth across shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathways scenarios using a global, integrated, multisector dynamics model, Global Change Analysis Model, which tracks national/regional household services fuel choice by decile. Nation/region use patterns deciles tend...
Ambitious climate change mitigation scenarios typically include substantial amounts of carbon dioxide removal. Such negative emissions are projected by integrated assessment models (IAMs) to be partly provided afforestation and reforestation. At present, only few IAMs incorporate information or natural forest disturbances any kind on dynamics. In this study we show how exposed fire weather the areas in IAM projections are. We illustrate that lack arrive at more realistic stocks forests,...
Abstract Projection of land use and land‐cover change is highly uncertain yet drives critical estimates carbon emissions, climate change, food bioenergy production. We new, spatially explicit availability data in conjunction with a model sensitivity analysis to estimate the effects additional protection on cover. The include protected agricultural suitability incorporated into Moirai system for initializing Global Change Analysis Model. Overall, decreasing relatively inefficient at...
Abstract. Data on income distributions within and across countries are becoming increasingly important to inform analysis of inequality understand the distributional consequences climate change. While datasets distribution collected from household surveys available for multiple countries, these often do not represent same concept therefore make comparisons over time difficult. Here, we present a consistent dataset 190 1958 2015 measured in terms net income. We complement observed values this...
Abstract Studies have found that understanding forest management is critical in the interaction between carbon cycle and integrated human-Earth system. This makes effectively representing decisions such as planting harvesting important. Here, we implement a novel dynamic harvest model global state of art multi-sector dynamics model, namely Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). We an approach explicitly tracks age generates rotation ages for are responsive to changes wood prices, regional...