The novel coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) in mainland China has rapidly spread across the globe. Within 2 mo since was first reported on December 31, 2019, a total of 566 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS CoV-2) cases have been confirmed 26 other countries. Travel restrictions and border control measures enforced countries to limit outbreak. We estimate impact these investigate role airport travel network global COVID-19 Our results show that daily risk exporting at least single SARS...

In the wake of community coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission in United States, there is a growing public health concern regarding adequacy resources to treat infected cases. Hospital beds, intensive care units (ICUs), and ventilators are vital for treatment patients with severe illness. To project timing outbreak peak number ICU beds required at peak, we simulated COVID-19 parameterized US population demographics. scenario analyses, varied delay from symptom onset...

Since the emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), unprecedented movement restrictions and social distancing measures have been implemented worldwide. The socioeconomic repercussions fueled calls to lift these measures. In absence population-wide restrictions, isolation infected individuals is key curtailing transmission. However, effectiveness symptom-based in preventing a resurgence depends on extent presymptomatic asymptomatic We evaluate contribution transmission based recent...

Two of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines currently approved in United States require 2 doses, administered 3 to 4 weeks apart. Constraints vaccine supply and distribution capacity, together with a deadly wave COVID-19 from November 2020 January 2021 emergence highly contagious Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV-2) variants, sparked policy debate on whether vaccinate more individuals first dose available delay second or continue recommended 2-dose series as tested...

BackgroundMore contagious variants of SARS-CoV-2 have emerged around the world, sparking concerns about impending surge in cases and severe outcomes. Despite development effective vaccines, rollout has been slow. We evaluated impact accelerated vaccine distribution on curbing disease burden novel variants.MethodsWe used an agent-based model transmission vaccination to simulate spread with S-Gene Target Failure (SGTF) addition original strain. incorporated age-specific risk contact patterns...

The durability of vaccine-mediated immunity to SARS-CoV-2, the durations breakthrough infection, and optimal timings booster vaccination are crucial knowledge for pandemic response. Here, we applied comparative evolutionary analyses estimate likelihood infections over time following by BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), mRNA-1273 (Moderna), ChAdOx1 (Oxford-AstraZeneca), Ad26.COV2.S (Johnson & Johnson/Janssen). We evaluated anti-Spike (S) immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody levels elicited each vaccine...

Significance Modular organization in animal social networks is hypothesized to alleviate the cost of disease burden group-living species. However, our analysis empirical 43 species along with theoretical demonstrates that infectious spread largely unaffected by underlying modular organization, except when are extremely subdivided. We show high fragmentation and subgroup cohesion, which both associated modularity networks, induce structural delay trapping infections through these reducing...

The fragmented and inefficient healthcare system in the United States leads to many preventable deaths unnecessary costs every year. During a pandemic, lives saved economic benefits of single-payer universal relative status quo would be even greater. For Americans who are uninsured underinsured, financial barriers COVID-19 care delayed diagnosis exacerbated transmission. Concurrently, beyond accrued from background rate uninsurance. Universal alleviate mortality caused by confluence these...

However, the population-level effectiveness of vaccination campaign in US, terms association with reduced infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, is not as well documented, we evaluated this using a simulation model. Methods This decision analytic model adheres to Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation ReportingStandards (CHEERS) reporting guideline.The institutional review study was waived by York University for use publicly available, deidentified data COVID-19 vaccination.Informed...

The seasonality of COVID-19 is important for effective healthcare and public health decision-making. Previous waves SARS-CoV-2 infections have indicated that the virus will likely persist as an endemic pathogen with distinct surges. However, timing patterns potentially seasonal surges remain uncertain, rendering policies uninformed in danger poorly anticipating opportunities intervention, such well-timed booster vaccination drives. Applying evolutionary approach to long-term data on closely...

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has displaced more than a quarter the population. Assessing disease burdens among people is instrumental in informing global public health and humanitarian aid efforts. We estimated burden Ukrainians both within to other countries by combining spatiotemporal model forcible displacement with age- gender-specific estimates cardiovascular (CVD), diabetes, cancer, HIV, tuberculosis (TB) each Ukraine’s 629 raions (i.e., districts). Among as...

Community structure is ubiquitous in biological networks. There has been an increased interest unraveling the community of systems as it may provide important insights into a system's functional components and impact local structures on dynamics at global scale. Choosing appropriate detection algorithm to identify empirical network can be difficult, however, many algorithms available are based variety cost functions difficult validate. Even when identified system, disentangling effect from...

Abstract Social network analysis is an invaluable tool to understand the patterns, evolution, and consequences of sociality. Comparative studies over a range social systems across multiple taxonomic groups are particularly valuable. Such however require quantitative association or interaction data species which not easily available. We introduce Animal Network Repository (ASNR) as first multi-taxonomic repository that collates 790 networks from more than 45 species, including those mammals,...

Following the start of COVID-19 vaccination in New York City (NYC), cases have declined over 10-fold from outbreak peak January 2020, despite emergence highly transmissible variants. We evaluated impact NYC's campaign on saving lives as well averting hospitalizations and cases.We used an age-stratified agent-based model to include transmission dynamics Alpha, Gamma, Delta Iota variants identified NYC. The was calibrated fitted reported incidence NYC, accounting for relative transmissibility...

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused severe outbreaks in Canadian long-term care facilities (LTCFs). In Canada, over 80% of COVID-19 deaths during the first pandemic wave occurred LTCFs. We sought to evaluate effect mitigation measures LTCFs including frequent testing staff, and vaccination staff residents. developed an agent-based transmission model parameterized it with disease-specific estimates, temporal sensitivity nasopharyngeal saliva testing, results vaccine...

Abstract Wildlife managers consider animal translocation a means of increasing the viability local population. However, augmentation may disrupt existing resident disease dynamics and initiate an outbreak that would effectively offset any advantages have achieved. This paper examines fundamental concepts ecology identifies conditions will increase likelihood following translocation. We highlight importance susceptibility to infection, population size connectivity – characteristic likely...

Significance The efficacy of the influenza vaccine against predominant strain appears to be relatively low during this 2017–2018 season. Our analyses demonstrate substantial effect even low-efficacy vaccines in averting infections, hospitalizations, and particularly deaths. results also that health burden resulting from is more sensitive changes vaccination coverage than efficacy. We further determined uptake distribution 140 million doses available would maximize effectiveness vaccination....

Most directly transmitted infections require some form of close contact between infectious and susceptible hosts to spread. Often disease models assume contacts are equal use mean field estimates transmission probability for all interactions with hosts. Such methods may inaccurately describe when differ substantially in their ability cause infection. Understanding this variation risk be critical properly model manage diseases. In study, we investigate how varying exposure key understanding...

Abstract Importance Randomized clinical trials have shown that the COVID-19 vaccines currently approved in US are highly efficacious. However, more evidence is needed to understand population-level impact of vaccination rollout face changing landscape pandemic US, including variants with higher transmissibility and immune escape. Objective To quantify campaign averting cases, hospitalizations deaths from December 12, 2020 June 28, 2021. Design Age-stratified agent-based model which included...

Abstract Two of the COVID-19 vaccines currently approved in United States require two doses, administered three to four weeks apart. Constraints vaccine supply and distribution capacity, together with a deadly wave from November 2020 January 2021 emergence highly contagious SARS-CoV-2 variants, sparked policy debate on whether vaccinate more individuals first dose available delay second dose, or continue recommended two-dose series as tested clinical trials. We developed an agent-based model...

Importance New York City, an early epicenter of the pandemic, invested heavily in its COVID-19 vaccination campaign to mitigate burden disease outbreaks. Understanding return on investment (ROI) this would provide insights into programs curb future Objective To estimate ROI City by estimating tangible direct and indirect costs from a societal perspective. Design, Setting, Participants This decision analytical model transmission was calibrated confirmed probable cases between December 14,...

Significance Diminished efficacy of influenza vaccines has fueled research and funding for a broadly protective vaccine. NIAID recently proposed at least 75% against symptomatic as key criterion universal Our analyses demonstrate that with would be highly impactful in reducing the epidemiological impacts seasonal both national state levels. Reduced incidence hospitalizations due to vaccine distribution save $3.5 billion influenza-related direct medical costs per year. This economic benefit...