The novel coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) in mainland China has rapidly spread across the globe. Within 2 mo since was first reported on December 31, 2019, a total of 566 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS CoV-2) cases have been confirmed 26 other countries. Travel restrictions and border control measures enforced countries to limit outbreak. We estimate impact these investigate role airport travel network global COVID-19 Our results show that daily risk exporting at least single SARS...

In the wake of community coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission in United States, there is a growing public health concern regarding adequacy resources to treat infected cases. Hospital beds, intensive care units (ICUs), and ventilators are vital for treatment patients with severe illness. To project timing outbreak peak number ICU beds required at peak, we simulated COVID-19 parameterized US population demographics. scenario analyses, varied delay from symptom onset...

Global vaccine development efforts have been accelerated in response to the devastating coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We evaluated impact of a 2-dose COVID-19 vaccination campaign on reducing incidence, hospitalizations, and deaths United States.We developed an agent-based model severe acute respiratory syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission parameterized it with US demographics age-specific outcomes. Healthcare workers high-risk individuals were prioritized for vaccination,...

Since the emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), unprecedented movement restrictions and social distancing measures have been implemented worldwide. The socioeconomic repercussions fueled calls to lift these measures. In absence population-wide restrictions, isolation infected individuals is key curtailing transmission. However, effectiveness symptom-based in preventing a resurgence depends on extent presymptomatic asymptomatic We evaluate contribution transmission based recent...

Global vaccine development efforts have been accelerated in response to the devastating COVID-19 pandemic. We evaluated impact of a 2-dose vaccination campaign on reducing incidence, hospitalizations, and deaths United States (US). developed an agent-based model SARS-CoV-2 transmission parameterized it with US demographics age-specific outcomes. Healthcare workers high-risk individuals were prioritized for vaccination, while children under 18 years age not vaccinated. considered efficacy 95%...

<h3>BACKGROUND:</h3> Increasing numbers of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Canada may create substantial demand for hospital admission and critical care. We evaluated the extent to which self-isolation mildly ill people delays peak outbreaks reduces need this care each Canadian province. <h3>METHODS:</h3> developed a computational model simulated scenarios COVID-19 within Using estimates characteristics, we projected intensive unit (ICU) bed requirements without self-isolation,...

However, the population-level effectiveness of vaccination campaign in US, terms association with reduced infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, is not as well documented, we evaluated this using a simulation model. Methods This decision analytic model adheres to Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation ReportingStandards (CHEERS) reporting guideline.The institutional review study was waived by York University for use publicly available, deidentified data COVID-19 vaccination.Informed...

The cost-effectiveness of immunisation strategies with a long-acting monoclonal antibody (nirsevimab) and/or protein-based maternal vaccine (RSVpreF) for protecting infants from Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV)-associated illness has not been previously determined Canada. We estimated the health benefits and nirsevimab immunising entire birth cohort, regardless gestational age or other risk factors. Additionally, we evaluated combined strategy year-round vaccination pregnant women RSVpreF...

Two prefusion F protein-based vaccines, Arexvy and Abrysvo, have been approved by Health Canada for protecting older adults against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-associated lower tract disease. We estimated the health benefits cost-effectiveness of these vaccines under a publicly funded single-dose vaccination program in Ontario that targets residents long-term care homes (LTCHs). Additionally, we evaluated an extended broadens to include community-dwelling adults. A discrete-event...

Following the start of COVID-19 vaccination in New York City (NYC), cases have declined over 10-fold from outbreak peak January 2020, despite emergence highly transmissible variants. We evaluated impact NYC's campaign on saving lives as well averting hospitalizations and cases.We used an age-stratified agent-based model to include transmission dynamics Alpha, Gamma, Delta Iota variants identified NYC. The was calibrated fitted reported incidence NYC, accounting for relative transmissibility...

Two prefusion F protein-based vaccines, Arexvy and Abrysvo, have been authorized by the US Food Drug Administration for protecting older adults against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-associated lower tract illness. We evaluated health benefits cost-effectiveness of these vaccines.

Abstract Following the 2013–14 outbreak in French Polynesia, Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic spread widely to many countries where Aedes Aegypti as main transmitting vector is endemic. The lack of a second wave ZIKV infection most affected regions may suggest that sufficiently high level herd immunity was reached during first wave. We developed an agent-based transmission model investigate role asymptomatic on likelihood observing wave, while accounting for its relative transmissibility. found...

Abstract Importance Randomized clinical trials have shown that the COVID-19 vaccines currently approved in US are highly efficacious. However, more evidence is needed to understand population-level impact of vaccination rollout face changing landscape pandemic US, including variants with higher transmissibility and immune escape. Objective To quantify campaign averting cases, hospitalizations deaths from December 12, 2020 June 28, 2021. Design Age-stratified agent-based model which included...

<h3>Importance</h3> A significant proportion of COVID-19 transmission occurs silently during the presymptomatic and asymptomatic stages infection. Children, although important drivers silent transmission, are not included in current vaccination campaigns. <h3>Objective</h3> To estimate benefits identifying infections among children as a proxy for their vaccination. <h3>Design, Setting, Participants</h3> This study used an age-structured disease model, parameterized with census data estimates...

The fourth wave of COVID-19 pandemic peaked in the US at 160,000 daily cases, concentrated primarily southern states. As Delta variant has continued to spread, we evaluated impact accelerated vaccination on reducing hospitalization and deaths across northeastern regions census divisions.We used an age-stratified agent-based model simulate outbreaks all states within two U.S. regions. was calibrated using reported incidence each state from October 1, 2020 August 31, 2021, parameterized with...

Current COVID-19 guidelines recommend symptom-based screening and regular nasopharyngeal (NP) testing for healthcare personnel in high-risk settings. We sought to estimate case detection percentages with various routine NP saliva frequencies.Simulation modeling study.We constructed a sensitivity function based on the average infectiousness profile of symptomatic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases determine probability being identified at time testing. This was fitted reported data...

Two prefusion F protein-based vaccines, Arexvy and Abrysvo, have been authorized by the US Food Drug Administration for protecting older adults against Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV)-associated lower respiratory tract illness. We evaluated health benefits cost-effectiveness of these vaccines.

Despite passive immunization with palivizumab to select high-risk children under two years of age, the health and economic burden respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) remains substantial. We evaluated effectiveness cost-effectiveness programs new generations RSV prophylactics, including long-acting monoclonal antibodies (LAMA) maternal vaccines, in terms reducing hospitalizations Nunavik, a Canadian Arctic region.

As of 28 July 2021, 60% adults in the United States had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19, and more than 34 million cases reported. Given uncertainty regarding undocumented infections, population level immunity COVID-19 remains undetermined.To estimate immunity, defined as proportion that is protected SARS-CoV-2 infection due to prior or vaccination.Statistical simulation modeling overall age-specific immunity.United States.Simulated age-stratified representing U.S. demographic...

The increasing rates of multidrug resistant TB (MDR-TB) have posed the question whether control programs under enhanced directly observed treatment, short-course (DOTS-Plus) are sufficient or implemented optimally. Despite efforts on early case detection and improved treatment regimens, direct transmission MDR-TB remains a major hurdle for global control.We developed an agent-based simulation model dynamics to evaluate effect reduction measures incidence MDR-TB. We 15-day isolation period...

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a significant global health concern, with nearly 2 billion people latently infected worldwide, particularly concentrated in the 30 countries highest TB burden, including Pakistan, ranking fifth this category. Pakistan also grapples Multidrug-resistant strains, complicating treatment options. Early diagnosis is crucial for timely initiation and prevention of further transmission. Among various diagnostic tests, Gene Xpert MTB/RIF assay stands out as promising tool...