A5054638746- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
- Fire effects on ecosystems
- Tree-ring climate responses
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Data Analysis with R
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Tree Root and Stability Studies
- Science and Climate Studies
- Forest ecology and management
- Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence
- Geothermal Energy Systems and Applications
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Lung Cancer Research Studies
- Thermoregulation and physiological responses
- Research Data Management Practices
- Aeolian processes and effects
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
2023-2025
ETH Zurich
2023-2025
Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace
2023-2025
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
2017-2025
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement
2025
Sorbonne Université
2024
Board of the Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology
2023
Max Planck Society
2020-2021
Max Planck Institute for Comparative and International Private Law
2018-2019
The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE) is the largest ensemble of a single comprehensive climate model currently available, with 100 members for historical simulations (1850–2005) and four forcing scenarios. It only large available that includes scenario representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 1% CO2 scenario. These advantages make MPI-GE powerful tool. We present an overview MPI-GE, its components, detail experiments completed. demonstrate how to separate forced response...
Societally relevant weather impacts typically result from compound events, which are rare combinations of and climate drivers. Focussing on four event types arising different variables across space time, here we illustrate that robust analyses events - such as frequency uncertainty analysis under present-day future conditions, attribution to change, exploration low-probability-high-impact require data with very large sample size. In particular, the required is much larger than needed for...
Abstract. The summer of 2018 was an extraordinary season in climatological terms for northern and central Europe, bringing simultaneous, widespread, concurrent heat drought extremes large parts the continent with extensive impacts on agriculture, forests, water supply, socio-economic sector. Here, we present a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis extreme particular focus Germany. heatwave first affected Scandinavia mid-July shifted towards Europe late July, while Iberia primarily early...
Abstract. Drought and heat events in Europe are becoming increasingly frequent due to human-induced climate change, impacting both human well-being ecosystem functioning. The intensity effects of these vary across the continent, making it crucial for decision-makers understand spatial variability drought impacts. Data on drought-related damage currently dispersed scientific publications, government reports, media outlets. This study consolidates data European forests from 2018 2022, using...
Abstract. Europe frequently experiences a wide range of extreme events and natural hazards, including heatwaves, precipitation, droughts, cold spells, windstorms, storm surges. Many these do not occur as single but rather show multivariate character, known compound events. We investigate the interactions between weather events, their characteristics, changes in intensity frequency, well uncertainties past, present, future. also explore impacts on various socio-economic sectors Germany...
Abstract We use the 100-member Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE) to disentangle contributions from colocated dynamic atmospheric conditions and local thermodynamic effects of moisture limitation as drivers variability in European summer heat extremes. Using a novel extreme event definition, we find that extremes with respect evolving mean climate increase by 70% under moderate warming scenario during twenty-first century. With multiple regression approach, dynamical mechanisms...
Abstract We evaluate how hotspots of different types extreme summertime heat change under global warming increase up to $$4\,^\circ \hbox {C}$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>4</mml:mn> <mml:msup> <mml:mspace /> <mml:mo>∘</mml:mo> </mml:msup> <mml:mtext>C</mml:mtext> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> ; and which level allows us avert the risk these considering irreducible range possibilities defined by well-sampled internal variability. use large samples...
We use a methodological framework exploiting the power of large ensembles to evaluate how well ten coupled climate models represent internal variability and response external forcings in observed historical surface temperatures. This evaluation allows us directly attribute discrepancies between observations biases simulated or forced response, without relying on assumptions separate these signals observations. The largest result from overestimated warming some during recent decades. In...
Abstract Increases in climate hazards and their impacts mark one of the major challenges change. Situations which occur close enough to another result amplified impacts, because systems are insufficiently resilient or themselves made more severe, special concern. We consider projected changes such compounding using Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble under a moderate (RCP4.5) emissions scenario, produces warming about 2.25 °C between pre-industrial (1851–1880) 2100. find that extreme heat...
Abstract Single‐model initial‐condition large ensembles are powerful tools to quantify the forced response, internal climate variability, and their evolution under global warming. Here, we present CMIP6 version of Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI‐GE CMIP6) with currently 30 realizations for historical period five emission scenarios. The power MPI‐GE goes beyond its predecessor ensemble by providing high‐frequency output, full range scenarios including highly policy‐relevant low...
Abstract Extreme heat and drought typical of an end-of-century climate could soon occur over Europe, repeatedly. Despite the European being potentially prone to multi-year successive extremes due influence North Atlantic variability, it remains unclear how likelihood changes under warming, early they reach levels, this is affected by internal variability. Using Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble, we find that even moderate levels virtually impossible 20 years ago 1-in-10 likelihoods as...
We use the 100-member Grand Ensemble with climate model MPI-ESM to evaluate controllability of mean and extreme European summer temperatures global temperature targets in Paris Agreement. find that at 2 °C warming are on average 1 higher than 1.5 respect pre-industrial levels. In a warmer world, one out every two months would be ever observed our current climate. Daily maximum anomalies for events return periods up 500 years reach levels 7 5.5 warming. The largest differences shorter 20 over...
Abstract Humid heat presents a major societal challenge through its impacts on human health, energy demand, and economic productivity, underlined by the projected emergence of conditions beyond tolerance. However, systematic assessment what drives most extreme humid worldwide has been lacking. Here, we investigate factors determining location magnitude humid‐heat extremes, framing our analysis around four regions with highest values: southern Persian Gulf, north‐central Pakistan, eastern...
Abstract Northeast Asia experienced unprecedented abrupt warming in the 1990s since last century. Based on a robust time series and rank frequency evaluation, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Grand Ensembles of CMIP5 (MPI-GE5), CMIP6 (MPI-GE6), EC-Earth3 IPSL-CM6A-LR were identified as models that best simulate external forcing internal variability observations represent most adequately. The negative-to-positive phase transition Atlantic multidecadal (AMV), combined with forcing, can...
Abstract The impacts of climate change on human health are often underestimated or perceived to be in a distant future. Here, we present the projected context COVID-19, recent catastrophe. We compared heat mortality with COVID-19 deaths 38 cities worldwide and found that half these cities, heat-related could exceed annual less than ten years (at + 3.0 °C increase global warming relative preindustrial). In seven five years. Our results underscore crucial need for action integration into...
Climate-related extreme events impose a heavy toll on humankind, and many will likely become more frequent in the future. The compound (joint) occurrence of different climate-related hazards impacts can further exacerbate detrimental consequences for society. By analysing postprocessed data from Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), we provide global mapping future changes six categories or related to climate extremes. These are: river floods, droughts, heatwaves,...
In the past decades European summers were marked by extreme heat, marking most severe warm seasons of temperature records. particular, in 2003, 2018, and 2022, Europe experienced unprecedented temperatures with anomalies exceeding 2.5 standard deviations. The prolonged heat affected human health, agriculture, economy, our whole ecosystem, highlighting need for reliable climate predictions. By using Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model, we demonstrate that these could have been predicted...
Understanding and robustly sampling climate variability is vital for producing reliable near- long-term projections of water availability drought. Climate on interannual to multi-decadal timescales can substantially influence precipitation, temperature, or humidity, shaping the intensity, frequency, persistence extreme hydrological events. Particularly multi-year variability, such influences lead consecutive years stress, challenging resilience natural human systems. Furthermore, worst-case,...
Future projections suggest that compound heat and drought in Europe will occur more frequently under increasing global warming. Year-to-year variability driven by atmospheric circulation patterns decadal phenomena like the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) temporarily dampens or amplifies these changes. As such, frequency intensity of events can be affected anthropogenic natural drivers.Disentangling contributions is essential for understanding current reliability future projections,...
The complexity of climate risk can lead to cascading impacts across the coupled climate, ecological, agricultural, and socioeconomic systems, which may involve potentially unprecedented outcomes feedbacks, nonlinear behaviors or tipping points. While advances have been made in understanding such interconnected risks, particularly within specific disciplines, significant gaps remain our modelling especially how they cascade systems.&#160;Several examples be found world, just last few...
In recent years, consecutive drought years have affected large areas of the world, such as Europe in 2018-2020 and Northern America 2020-2023.&#160; Drought conditions on any given year pose considerable risk to agriculture, forestry, ecosystems or water energy supply. Multi-year droughts bear potential aggravate impacts due deficit build-up over a longer period without insufficient recovery during wet seasons. Adaptation strategies usually work for limited time rely periods (e.g.,...
In early September 2023, Europe experienced a pronounced atmospheric omega-blocking event, which led to spatially compounding precipitation and heat extremes across Europe. Omega-blocking is characterized by persistent anticyclone at its core, flanked two low-pressure systems the southwest southeast. During 2023 center of omega block was positioned over Central Southern Scandinavia, significant heatwave during first week 2023. Conversely, regions on southwestern flanks (Spain) southeastern...
In the past two decades, intensity of European summer heatwaves has strongly increased due to anthropogenic emissions and associated rising global mean temperatures. On one hand, forcing is causing an increase in temperatures, shifting temperature distributions towards warmer values intensifying heatwaves. other expected affect internal climate variability under warming, changing While effects forced changes have been long debated for or maximum on heatwave increasing warming levels remain...