A5080939013- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Distributed and Parallel Computing Systems
- Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
- Semiconductor Lasers and Optical Devices
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Scientific Research and Discoveries
- Earthquake Detection and Analysis
- Cardiovascular Function and Risk Factors
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Advanced MRI Techniques and Applications
- Geological and Geophysical Studies
- Cardiovascular Health and Disease Prevention
- Energy Load and Power Forecasting
- Disaster Management and Resilience
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Soil Moisture and Remote Sensing
- Advanced Computational Techniques and Applications
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
2014-2024
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2011-2024
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
2014-2023
GenomeDesigns Lab (United States)
2023
Pennsylvania State University
2019-2020
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
2019-2020
Princeton University
2011-2020
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
2019-2020
Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
2015
Prediction Systems (United States)
2015
Abstract In Part 2 of this two‐part paper, documentation is provided key aspects a version the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model that will serve as base for new set climate and Earth system models (CM4 ESM4) under development at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The quality simulation in AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) mode has been 1. provides components some sensitivities to choices formulation values parameters, highlighting convection parameterization...
Abstract In this two‐part paper, a description is provided of version the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model that will serve as base for new set climate and Earth system models (CM4 ESM4) under development at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). This version, with roughly 100 km horizontal resolution 33 levels in vertical, contains an aerosol generates fields from emissions “light” chemistry mechanism designed to support but prescribed ozone. Part 1, quality simulation AMIP...
Abstract Understanding the predictability limit of day-to-day weather phenomena such as midlatitude winter storms and summer monsoonal rainstorms is crucial to numerical prediction (NWP). This studied using unprecedented high-resolution global models with ensemble experiments European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; 9-km operational model) identical-twin U.S. Next-Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS; 3 km). Results suggest that may indeed exist intrinsic underlying...
Abstract A new high-resolution Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled model [the High-Resolution Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) (HiFLOR)] has been developed and used to investigate potential skill in simulation prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) activity. HiFLOR comprises (~25-km mesh) atmosphere land components a more moderate-resolution (~100-km sea ice ocean component. was from FLOR by decreasing the horizontal grid spacing atmospheric component 50 25 km,...
Abstract We document the development and simulation characteristics of next generation modeling system for seasonal to decadal prediction projection at Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). SPEAR ( S eamless System P rediction EA rth R esearch) is built from component models recently developed GFDL—the AM4 atmosphere model, MOM6 ocean code, LM4 land SIS2 sea ice model. The are specifically designed with attributes needed a model time scales, including ability run large ensembles...
Responses of tropical cyclones (TCs) to CO2 doubling are explored using coupled global climate models (GCMs) with increasingly refined atmospheric/land horizontal grids (~ 200 km, ~ 50 km and 25 km). The three exhibit similar changes in background fields thought regulate TC activity, such as relative sea surface temperature (SST), potential intensity, wind shear. However, frequency decreases substantially the model, while model shows no significant change. also has a substantial...
Abstract The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) has developed a new variable-resolution global model with the ability to represent convective-scale features that serves as prototype of Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS). goal this prediction system is maintain skill in large-scale while simultaneously improving convectively driven mesoscale phenomena. This paper demonstrates capability relative current operational Forecast (GFS). uses stretched-grid functionality...
Abstract Retrospective seasonal predictions of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the three major ocean basins Northern Hemisphere are performed from 1990 to 2010 using Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory High-Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) at 25-km resolution. states initialized for each forecast, with sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) “persisted” that starting time during 5-month forecast period (July–November). Using a five-member ensemble, it is shown storm counts both (TS) and...
[1] A newly developed global model, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High-Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) which is designed for both weather predictions and climate-change simulations, used to predict tropical cyclone activity at 25-km resolution. Assuming persistence of sea surface temperature anomaly during forecast period, we show that inter-annual variability seasonal prediction hurricane counts in North Atlantic basin highly predictable past decade (2000–2010)....
Abstract We present the System for High‐resolution prediction on Earth‐to‐Local Domains (SHiELD), an atmosphere model developed by Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupling nonhydrostatic FV3 Dynamical Core to a physics suite originally taken from Global Forecast System. SHiELD is designed demonstrate new capabilities within its components, explore applications, and answer scientific questions through these functionalities. A variety of configurations are presented, including...
Abstract Since 2003, a field program has been conducted under the name of Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR). As DOTSTAR suggests, targeted observation is one its key objectives. The prerequisite designing observing strategy to identify sensitive areas, which would exert great influence on results numerical forecast or extent error. In addition various sensitivity products already adopted in DOTSTAR, new way area tropical cyclones based...
Abstract This study aims to assess whether, and the extent which, an increase in atmospheric resolution of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution version CM2.5 (FLOR) with 50-km High-Resolution FLOR (HiFLOR) 25-km improves simulation El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–tropical cyclone (TC) connections western North Pacific (WNP). HiFLOR simulates better ENSO–TC WNP including TC track density, genesis, landfall than both long-term control...
Abstract While tropical cyclone (TC) prediction, in particular TC genesis, remains very challenging, accurate prediction of TCs is critical for timely preparedness and mitigation. Using a new version the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled model, authors studied predictability two destructive landfall TCs: Hurricane Sandy 2012 Super Typhoon Haiyan 2013. Results demonstrate that geneses these are highly predictable with maximum lead time reaching 11 days. The “beyond weather...
Abstract We use the fvGFS model developed at Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to demonstrate potential of upcoming United States Next‐Generation Global Prediction System for hurricane prediction. The retrospective forecasts initialized with European Centre Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data showed much‐improved track 2017 Atlantic season compared best‐performing ECMWF operational model. greatly improved ECMWF's poor forecast Hurricane Maria (2017). For Irma (2017), a...
Abstract A subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction system was recently developed using the GFDL Seamless System for Prediction and Earth Research (SPEAR) global coupled model. Based on 20-yr hindcast results (2000–19), boreal wintertime (November–April) Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) skill is revealed to reach 30 days measured before anomaly correlation coefficient of real-time multivariate (RMM) index drops 0.5. However, when MJO partitioned into four distinct propagation patterns, range...
Abstract We describe the third version of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory cloud microphysics scheme (GFDL MP v3) implemented in System for High‐resolution prediction on Earth‐to‐Local Domains (SHiELD). Compared to GFDL v2, v3 is entirely reorganized, optimized, and modularized into functions. The particle size distribution (PSD) all hydrometeor categories redefined better mimic observations, droplet number concentration (CDNC) calculated from Modern‐Era Retrospective analysis Research...
Droughts and heatwaves are inherently linked through land-atmosphere (L-A) coupling, where the interactions between surface energy water availability play critical roles in their evolution. In energy-limited regimes, anomalously high air temperature (T) intensifies evapotranspiration (ET), leading to rapid depletion of soil moisture (SM). Conversely, water-limited reduced SM suppresses ET, exacerbating warming. The transition these two characterized by thresholds, governs progression...
Abstract High‐resolution atmospheric models are powerful tools for hurricane track and intensity predictions. Although using high resolution contributes to better representation of structure intensity, its value in the prediction steering flow storm tracks is uncertain. Here we present experiments suggesting that biases predicted North Atlantic a high‐resolution (approximately 3 km grid‐spacing) model originates from model's explicit simulation deep convection. Differing behavior convection...
Abstract A new global model using the GFDL nonhydrostatic Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core (FV3) coupled to physical parameterizations from National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s Global Forecast System (NCEP/GFS) was built at GFDL, named fvGFS. The modern dynamical core, FV3, has been selected Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Next Generation Prediction (NGGPS) due its accuracy, adaptability, computational efficiency, which brings a great opportunity unification of...
Abstract Singular vectors (SVs) are used to study the sensitivity of 2-day forecasts recurving tropical cyclones (TCs) in western North Pacific changes initial state. The SVs calculated using tangent and adjoint models Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) for 72 18 TCs during 2006. In addition linear SV calculation, nonlinear perturbation experiments also performed order examine 1) similarity between growth 2) downstream impacts over America that result from TC...
Abstract This paper describes a forecasting configuration of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High-resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM). HiRAM represents an early attempt in unifying, within global modeling framework, capabilities GFDL’s low-resolution climate models for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) type change assessments and high-resolution limited-area hurricane predictions. In this study, potential as tool is investigated by applying model to near-term...
Abstract Subseasonal climate prediction has emerged as a top forecast priority but remains great challenge. extreme is even more difficult than predicting the time‐mean variability. Here we show that wintertime cold extremes, measured by frequency of days (ECDs), are skillfully predicted European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model 2–4 weeks in advance over large fraction Northern Hemisphere land region. The physical basis such skill ECDs primarily rooted small subset...
Abstract Targeted observation is one of the most important research and forecasting issues for improving tropical cyclone predictability. A new parameter [i.e., adjoint-derived sensitivity steering vector (ADSSV)] has been proposed adopted as targeted observing strategies in Dropwindsonde Observations Typhoon Surveillance near Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR). The ADSSV identifies sensitive areas at time to flow verifying through adjoint calculation. In this study, calculated from nonlinear forecast...