A5079980121- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Climate variability and models
- Hydrology and Sediment Transport Processes
- Climate change and permafrost
- Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Soil erosion and sediment transport
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Marine and environmental studies
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Fish Ecology and Management Studies
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Landslides and related hazards
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Water resources management and optimization
- Agricultural risk and resilience
- Insurance and Financial Risk Management
- Tree-ring climate responses
- Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies
- Reservoir Engineering and Simulation Methods
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Regional Development and Management Studies
- Rangeland Management and Livestock Ecology
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
2023-2025
University of Oxford
2022-2025
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
2013-2022
Leibniz Association
2022
University College London
2013-2019
An intercomparison of climate change impacts projected by nine regional-scale hydrological models for 12 large river basins on all continents was performed, and sources uncertainty were quantified in the framework ISIMIP project. The ECOMAG, HBV, HYMOD, HYPE, mHM, SWAT, SWIM, VIC WaterGAP3 applied following basins: Rhine Tagus Europe, Niger Blue Nile Africa, Ganges, Lena, Upper Yellow Yangtze Asia, Mississippi, MacKenzie Amazon America, Darling Australia. model calibration validation done...
A large number of historical simulations and future climate projections are available from Global Climate Models, but these typically coarse resolution, which limits their effectiveness for assessing local scale changes in attendant impacts. Here, we use a novel statistical downscaling model capable replicating extreme events, the Bias Correction Constructed Analogues with Quantile mapping reordering (BCCAQ), to downscale daily precipitation, air-temperature, maximum minimum temperature,...
Abstract. The Tarim River basin, located in Xinjiang, NW China, is the largest endorheic river basin China and one of all Central Asia. Due to extremely arid climate, with an annual precipitation less than 100 mm, water supply along Aksu rivers solely depends on water. This linked anthropogenic activities (e.g., agriculture) natural semi-natural ecosystems as both compete for ongoing increase consumption by agriculture other human this region has been enhancing competition between needs...
Abstract Mountain precipitation is often strongly underestimated as observations are scarce, biased toward lower-lying locations and prone to wind-induced undercatch, while topographical heterogeneity large. This presents serious challenges hydrological modeling for water resource management climate change impact assessments in mountainous regions of the world, where a large population depends on supply from mountains. The headwaters Tarim River, covering four remote highly glacierized Asian...
Abstract. Precipitation is the most important driver of hydrological cycle, but it challenging to estimate over large scales from satellites and models. Here, we assessed performance six global quasi-global high-resolution precipitation datasets (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), Climate Hazards group Infrared with Stations 2.0 (CHIRPS), Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble 2.80 (MSWEP), TerraClimate (TERRA), Prediction Unified 1.0 (CPCU),...
Climate variability and change play a crucial role in the vulnerable system of Aksu River basin located Kyrgyzstan northwest China, providing precious water resources for intense oasis agriculture Xinjiang Province (China). Ubiquitous warming increase precipitation (in lower part basin) have been detected. Glaciers region are retreating. Seasonal trends river discharge show an increase. A clear link could be demonstrated between daily temperature lagged at two headwater stations summer....
The River Aksu is the principal tributary to Tarim, providing about three quarters of its discharge. It originates in Kyrgyzstan and flows into arid areas Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region China, where an extensive irrigated agriculture has been developed river oases. aim present contribution review current trends temperature, precipitation, discharge links between these variables. temperature region have rising. Changes were studied using multiple trend analyses with different start end...
Abstract Understanding drivers of river mobility—temporal shifts in channel positions—is critical for managing fluvial landscapes sustainably and interpreting past responses to climate change. However, direct observations linking mobility water discharge variability are scarce. Here, we pair multi‐annual measurements daily mobility, estimated from Landsat, 48 rivers worldwide. We show that, across climates planforms, is correlated with over daily, intra‐annual, inter‐annual timescales. For...
<title>Abstract</title> Over a billion people globally are already exposed to the risk of flooding, but by 2050 this number is expected double due human-induced climate change, population growth, and encroachment into at-risk areas. Global Flood Models (GFMs) vital tools for producing flood hazard maps supporting impact estimates policy interventions. These GFMs represent river channels typically assuming that bankfull flow-carrying capacity equates flow with specified return period (RP)...
Quantifying impacts of land-use change on streamflow extremes is challenging, primarily due to the masking effects other environmental processes. Our current understanding these remains incomplete. Here, we use explainable machine learning techniques analyse over 1.5 million seasonal 7-day low-flow and high-flow events across 10,717 catchments worldwide between 1982 2023. model incorporates antecedent meteorological conditions, annual six categories, catchment characteristics...
River discharge directly affects the water-food-energy-environment nexus and can have devastating impacts during floods. Floods often occur after extreme precipitation events, which are challenging to forecast accurately, both in time space. Unresolved small-scale processes features, including convection orography, direct on our ability accurately simulate precipitation, its partitioning into surface sub-surface runoff, consequently hydrological skill. This motivates a spatial resolution...
Understanding the drivers of river mobility - temporal shifts in channel positions is critical for managing fluvial landscapes sustainably and interpreting past response to climate change. However, direct observations linking water discharge variability are scarce. To resolve this challenge, we pair multi-annual measurements daily with mobility, estimated from Landsat, 48 rivers worldwide. Our results show that, across climates planforms, correlated over daily, intra-annual, inter-annual...
The estimation, attribution or projection of hydro-meteorological extremes in individual locations is constrained by the limited number observations extreme events. Recent advances large-sample machine learning (ML) models, however, have demonstrated significant potential to mitigate impact data scarcity on quantification hydrological risks. These models integrate hundreds thousands time-series records alongside local descriptors climate and catchment characteristics, enabling them learn...
The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events highlight the urgent need for more accurate flood forecasting to mitigate devastating impacts on communities ecosystems. DestinE programme aims address this challenge by enhancing accuracy meteorological forecasts, particularly events, through higher resolution, which in turn is expected improve capabilities. Nearly one year Global Extremes Digital Twin (G-EDT) simulations, providing high-resolution data, has been generated as...
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) often have a significant impact on downstream users. Including their effects in hydrological models, identifying past occurrences and assessing potential impacts are challenges for hydrologists working mountainous catchments. The regularly outbursting Merzbacher Lake is located the headwaters of Aksu River, most important source water discharge to Tarim northwest China. Modelling its resources evaluation climate change river indispensable projecting future...
Major river and flash flood events have accumulated in Central Eastern Europe over the last decade reminding public as well insurance sector that climate related risks are likely to become even more damaging prevalent patterns change. However, information about current future hydro-climatic extremes is often not available. The Future Danube Model (FDM) an end-user driven multi-hazard risk model suite for region has been developed provide services perils such heavy precipitation, heat waves,...
Pluvial floods are increasingly threatening urban environments worldwide due to human-induced climate change. High-resolution, state-of-the-art pluvial flood models urgently needed inform change adaptation and disaster risk reduction measures but generally not empirically tested because of the rarity local high-intensity precipitation events lack monitoring capabilities. Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) collected by professionals, non-professionals citizens made available on internet...
Abstract This study performs a comparison of two model calibration/validation approaches and their influence on future hydrological projections under climate change by employing scenarios (RCP2.6 8.5) projected four global models. Two models (HMs), snowmelt runoff + glaciers variable infiltration capacity coupled with glacier model, were used to simulate streamflow in the highly snow melt–driven Upper Indus Basin. In first (conventional) calibration approach, calibrated only at basin outlet,...
Abstract Glacierised river catchments are highly sensitive to climate change, while large populations may depend on their water resources. The irrigation agriculture and the communities along Tarim River, NW China, strongly discharge from glacierised surrounding Taklamakan Desert. While recent increasing has been beneficial for agricultural sector, future runoff under change is uncertain. We assess three scenarios by forcing two glacio-hydrological models with output of eight general...
Tarim River basin is the largest endorheic river in China. Due to extremely arid climate water supply solely depends on originating from glacierised mountains with about 75% stemming transboundary Aksu River. The demand linked anthropogenic (specifically agriculture) and natural ecosystems, both competing for water. Ongoing change significantly impacts cryosphere. mass balance of glaciers was clearly negative since 1975. discharge headwaters has been increasing over last decades mainly due...
Abstract. Glacierised river catchments have been shown to be highly sensitive climate change, while large populations depend on the water resources originating from them. Hydrological models are used aid resource management, yet their treatment of glacier processes is either rudimentary in applications or linked fully distributed that prevent larger model domains. Also, data scarcity mountainous has hampered implementation physically based approaches over entire catchments. A integrated...