A5087492716- Malaria Research and Control
- Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Global Maternal and Child Health
- Computational Drug Discovery Methods
- vaccines and immunoinformatics approaches
- Evolution and Genetic Dynamics
- Parasites and Host Interactions
- Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
- Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Zoonotic diseases and public health
- Pharmacological Effects and Toxicity Studies
- TiO2 Photocatalysis and Solar Cells
- Insect Pest Control Strategies
- Drug Transport and Resistance Mechanisms
- Vibrio bacteria research studies
- Long-Term Effects of COVID-19
- Research on Leishmaniasis Studies
- COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies
- Complement system in diseases
- Pharmaceutical Economics and Policy
- Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- Pharmacogenetics and Drug Metabolism
- Statistical Methods in Clinical Trials
Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute
2016-2025
University of Basel
2016-2025
The University of Western Australia
2024-2025
The Kids Research Institute Australia
2024-2025
Chinese Center For Disease Control and Prevention
2019-2020
Center for Disease Control
2019-2020
Henan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
2019-2020
Swiss School of Public Health
2010
Pfizer (United States)
2009
Queensland University of Technology
2003-2007
Human rabies in developing countries can be prevented through interventions directed at dogs. Potential cost-savings for the public health sector of aimed animal-host reservoirs should assessed. Available deterministic models transmission between dogs were extended to include dog-to-human transmission. Model parameters fitted routine weekly rabid-dog and exposed-human cases reported N'Djaména, capital Chad. The estimated rates (beta(d)) 0.0807 km2/(dogs x week) humans (beta(dh)) 0.0002...
The phase 3 trial of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine candidate showed modest efficacy against Plasmodium falciparum malaria, but was not powered to assess mortality endpoints. Impact projections and cost-effectiveness estimates for longer timeframes than follow-up across a range settings are needed inform policy recommendations. We aimed public health impact routine use in African settings.We compared four transmission models their predictions impact. used data 32 months or parameterise...
Malaria remains a leading cause of illness and death globally, with countries in sub-Saharan Africa bearing disproportionate burden. Global high-resolution maps malaria prevalence, incidence, mortality are crucial for tracking spatially heterogeneous progress against the disease to inform strategic control efforts. We present latest such maps, first since 2019, which cover years 2000-22. The accompanied by administrative-level summaries include estimated COVID-19 pandemic-related impacts on...
Appropriate treatment of life-threatening Plasmodium falciparum malaria requires in-patient care. Although the proportion severe cases accessing care in endemic settings strongly affects overall case fatality rates and thus disease burden, this is generally unknown. At present, estimates mortality are driven by prevalence or clinical incidence data, ignoring differences resulting from variations access. Consequently, impact preventive interventions on burden have not been validly compared...
SUMMARY Planning of the control Plasmodium falciparum malaria leads to a need for models epidemiology that provide realistic quantitative prediction likely epidemiological outcomes wide range strategies. Predictions effects often ignore medium- and long-term dynamics. The complexities life-cycle, within-host dynamics, limit applicability conventional deterministic models. We use individual-based stochastic simulations predict impacts interventions on infection, morbidity, mortality, health...
Mass drug administration for elimination of Plasmodium falciparum malaria is recommended by WHO in some settings. We used consensus modelling to understand how optimise the effects mass areas with low transmission.We collaborated researchers doing field trials establish a standard intervention scenario and transmission setting, we input these parameters into four previously published models. then varied number rounds administration, coverage, duration, timing, importation infection,...
Using an ensemble modeling approach, Thomas Smith and colleagues find that targeted mass vaccination with a pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccine RTS,S in low-transmission settings might have better health effects than through national EPI programs.
Mosquito dispersal is a key behavioural factor that affects the persistence and resurgence of several vector-borne diseases. Spatial heterogeneity mosquito resources, such as hosts breeding sites, behaviour consequently population structures, human exposure to vectors, ability control disease transmission. In this paper, we develop simulate discrete-space continuous-time mathematical model investigate impact heterogeneous distribution resources on dynamics populations. We build an ordinary...
The effectiveness of insecticide-treated nets in preventing malaria is threatened by developing resistance against pyrethroids. Little known about how strongly this affects the vector control programmes. Data from experimental hut studies on effects long-lasting, insecticidal (LLINs) nine anopheline mosquito populations, with varying levels mortality World Health Organization susceptibility tests, were used to parameterize models. Both simple static models predicting population-level and...
Abstract In many countries health system data remain too weak to accurately enumerate Plasmodium falciparum malaria cases. response, cartographic approaches have been developed that link maps of infection prevalence with mathematical relationships predict the incidence rate clinical malaria. Microsimulation (or ‘agent-based’) models represent a powerful new paradigm for defining such relationships; however, differences in model structure and calibration mean no consensus yet exists on...
As vaccination coverage against SARS-CoV-2 increases amidst the emergence and spread of more infectious potentially deadly viral variants, decisions on timing extent relaxing effective, but unsustainable, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) need to be made.An individual-based transmission model dynamics, OpenCOVID, was developed compare impact various NPI strategies COVID-19 epidemic in Switzerland. OpenCOVID uses Oxford Containment Health Index (OCHI) quantify stringency NPIs.Even if...
The function of transporters in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) has been characterized, but less is known about cytochrome P450 (CYP) enzyme these cells. Given that cytokines are dysregulated many diseases, the purpose this work was to assess impact on expression CYPs, and chemokine receptors PBMC.Human PBMC were incubated with for 48 h. ATP-binding cassette (ABC)B1, ABCC1, ABCC2, CYP2B6, CYP3A4, CXCR4 CCR5 measured by quantitative polymerase chain reaction flow cytometry at 0, 4,...
Abstract Individual-based models have become important tools in the global battle against infectious diseases, yet model complexity can make calibration to biological and epidemiological data challenging. We propose using a Bayesian optimization framework employing Gaussian process or machine learning emulator functions calibrate complex malaria transmission simulator. demonstrate our approach by optimizing over high-dimensional parameter space with respect portfolio of multiple fitting...
The effectiveness of artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) to treat Plasmodium falciparum malaria is threatened by resistance. complex interplay between sources selective pressure—treatment properties, biological factors, transmission intensity, and access treatment—obscures understanding how, when, why resistance establishes spreads across different locations. We developed a disease modelling approach with emulator-based global sensitivity analysis systematically quantify which...
SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern, such as Omicron (B.1.1.529), continue to emerge. Assessing the impact their potential viral properties on probability future transmission dominance and public health burden is fundamental in guiding ongoing COVID-19 control strategies.
Vaccinations have reduced severe burden of COVID-19 and allowed for lifting non-pharmaceutical interventions. However, with immunity waning alongside emergence more transmissible variants concern, vaccination strategies must be examined.Here we apply a SARS-CoV-2 transmission model to identify preferred frequency, timing, target groups vaccine boosters reduce public health systems risk. We estimated new infections hospital admissions averted over 2 years through annual or biannual boosting...
Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) is recommended for disease control in settings with moderate to high Plasmodium falciparum transmission and currently depends on the administration of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine. However, poor regimen adherence increased frequency parasite mutations conferring resistance might threaten effectiveness SMC. Guidance needed de-risk development drug compounds prevention. We aimed provide guidance early prioritisation new alternative SMC drugs...
Background: Vaccines, monoclonal antibodies, and long-acting injectables are being developed to prevent Plasmodium falciparum malaria. These therapeutics may target multiple stages of the parasite life cycle, evidence is needed articulate their benefits with chemoprevention prioritise candidates for clinical development. Methods: We used an individual-based malaria transmission model estimate health impact combining new seasonal (SMC). Our modelling framework emulator-based methods models...
When models are used to inform decision-making, both their strengths and limitations must be considered. Using malaria as an example, we explain how why limited offer guidance for ensuring a model is well-suited its intended purpose.
Abstract In 2022, the World Health Organization extended their guidelines for perennial malaria chemoprevention (PMC) from infants to children up 24 months old. However, evidence PMC’s public health impact is primarily limited under 15 months. Further research needed assess and cost-effectiveness of PMC, added benefit further age-expansion. We integrated an individual-based model with pharmacological models drug action address these questions PMC a proposed age-expanded schedule (referred as...