A5107988048- Malaria Research and Control
- Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Evolution and Genetic Dynamics
- Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- HIV/AIDS Research and Interventions
- Viral Infections and Immunology Research
- Neural dynamics and brain function
- Tuberculosis Research and Epidemiology
- Viral gastroenteritis research and epidemiology
- HIV Research and Treatment
- Global Maternal and Child Health
- HIV/AIDS Impact and Responses
- Adolescent Sexual and Reproductive Health
- HIV, Drug Use, Sexual Risk
- Vibrio bacteria research studies
- Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- HIV/AIDS drug development and treatment
- Diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis
- Zoonotic diseases and public health
- Animal Disease Management and Epidemiology
- Celiac Disease Research and Management
- Viral Infections and Vectors
- Religion and Sociopolitical Dynamics in Nigeria
- Child Nutrition and Water Access
Institute for Disease Modeling
2013-2019
Bellevue Hospital Center
2011-2019
Intellectual Ventures (United States)
2011-2018
Google (United States)
2013
Gates Foundation
2013
Bellevue College
2013
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
2012
Stanford University
2012
Hoover Institution
2012
Princeton University
2008-2011
Contact rates and patterns among individuals in a geographic area drive transmission of directly-transmitted pathogens, making it essential to understand estimate contacts for simulation disease dynamics. Under the uniform mixing assumption, one two mechanisms is typically used describe relation between contact rate population density: density-dependent or frequency-dependent. Based on existing evidence threshold human mobility patterns, we formulated spatial model appropriate form with...
A newly developed platform capable of oral, ultra–long-acting drug delivery could be applied against the malaria vector in elimination programs.
Background: The development and application of quantitative methods to understand disease dynamics plan interventions is becoming increasingly important in the push toward eradication human infectious diseases, exemplified by ongoing effort stop spread poliomyelitis.Methods: Dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) a recently developed method focused on discovering coherent spatial-temporal modes high-dimensional data collected from complex systems with time dynamics.The algorithm has number...
Abstract The efficacy of antiretroviral therapy is significantly compromised by medication non-adherence. Long-acting enteral systems that can ease the burden daily adherence have not yet been developed. Here we describe an oral dosage form composed distinct drug–polymer matrices which achieved week-long systemic drug levels antiretrovirals dolutegravir, rilpivirine and cabotegravir in a pig. Simulations viral dynamics patient patterns indicate such would reduce therapeutic failures...
Significance Gene drive mosquitoes have tremendous potential to help eliminate malaria, and multiple gene approaches recently shown promise in laboratory settings. These include population suppression through fertility disruption, driving-Y chromosomes, replacement with genes that limit malaria transmission. Mathematical modeling is used evaluate these by simulating realistic field settings seasonality determine constraints on construct parameters release strategies. Parameter variation from...
Significance Traditional methods for estimating malaria transmission based on mosquito sampling are not standardized and unavailable in many countries sub-Saharan Africa. Such studies especially difficult to implement when is low, low the goal of elimination. Malaria-control efforts Senegal have resulted changes population genomics evidenced by increased allele sharing among parasite genomes, often including genomic identity between independently sampled parasites. Fitting an epidemiological...
The phase 3 trial of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine candidate showed modest efficacy against Plasmodium falciparum malaria, but was not powered to assess mortality endpoints. Impact projections and cost-effectiveness estimates for longer timeframes than follow-up across a range settings are needed inform policy recommendations. We aimed public health impact routine use in African settings.We compared four transmission models their predictions impact. used data 32 months or parameterise...
BackgroundMajor gains have been made in reducing malaria transmission many parts of the world, principally by scaling-up coverage with long-lasting insecticidal nets and indoor residual spraying. Historically, choice vector control intervention has largely guided a parameter sensitivity analysis George Macdonald's theory vectorial capacity that suggested prioritizing methods kill adult mosquitoes. While this advice highly successful for suppression, there is need to revisit these arguments...
Malaria is a major public health issue in much of the world, and mosquito vectors which drive transmission are key targets for interventions. Mathematical models planning malaria eradication benefit from detailed representations local populations, their natural dynamics response to campaign pressures. A new model presented population dynamics, effects weather, impacts multiple simultaneous This then embedded large-scale individual-based simulation results elimination discussed. Mosquito...
BackgroundThe post-2015 End TB Strategy proposes targets of 50% reduction in tuberculosis incidence and 75% mortality from by 2025. We aimed to assess whether these are feasible three high-burden countries with contrasting epidemiology previous programmatic achievements.Methods11 independently developed mathematical models transmission projected the epidemiological impact currently available interventions for prevention, diagnosis, treatment China, India, South Africa. Models were calibrated...
Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes are essential for malaria transmission. Malaria control measures that aim at reducing transmission require an accurate characterization of the human infectious reservoir. We longitudinally determined infectiousness to mosquitoes and P. carriage by ultrasensitive RNA-based diagnostics in 130 randomly selected inhabitants endemic area. At least 1 mosquito was infected 32.6% (100 307) blood samples; total, 7.6% (916 12 079) were infected. The proportion...
In the last 20 years, China ramped up a DOTS (directly observed treatment, short-course)-based tuberculosis (TB) control program with 80% population coverage, achieving 2015 Millennium Development Goal of 50% reduction in TB prevalence and mortality. Recently, World Health Organization developed End Strategy, an overall goal 90% incidence 95% deaths from 2015–2035. As burden shifts to older individuals China's ages, it is unclear if maintaining current strategy will be sufficient for reach...
BackgroundThe post-2015 End TB Strategy sets global targets of reducing tuberculosis incidence by 50% and mortality 75% 2025. We aimed to assess resource requirements cost-effectiveness strategies achieve these in China, India, South Africa.MethodsWe examined intervention scenarios developed consultation with country stakeholders, which scaled up existing interventions high but feasible coverage Nine independent modelling groups collaborated estimate policy outcomes, we estimated the cost...
Abstract In many countries health system data remain too weak to accurately enumerate Plasmodium falciparum malaria cases. response, cartographic approaches have been developed that link maps of infection prevalence with mathematical relationships predict the incidence rate clinical malaria. Microsimulation (or ‘agent-based’) models represent a powerful new paradigm for defining such relationships; however, differences in model structure and calibration mean no consensus yet exists on...
A model for Anopheles population dynamics and malaria transmission is combined with a within-host microsolver to study baseline transmission, the effects of seasonality, impact interventions. The Garki Project recreated in simulation pre-intervention different combinations interventions deployed. Modifications are introduced, longer project duration, extension dry-season spraying, transmission-blocking vaccines together achieve local elimination some conditions. variety simulated settings...
Abstract Heterogeneity in transmission is a challenge for infectious disease dynamics and control. An 80-20 “Pareto” rule has been proposed to describe this heterogeneity whereby 80% of accounted by 20% individuals, herein called super-spreaders. It unclear, however, whether super-spreading can be attributed certain individuals or it an unpredictable unavoidable feature epidemics. Here, we investigate heterogeneous malaria at three sites Uganda find that negatively correlated with overall...
The locus ceruleus (LC) can exhibit tonic or phasic activity and release norepinephrine (NE) throughout the cortex, modulating cellular excitability synaptic efficacy thus influencing behavioral performance. We study effects of LC–NE modulation on decision making in two-alternative forced-choice tasks by changing conductances a biophysical neural network model, we investigate how it affects performance measured terms reward rate. find that low NE levels result unmotivated behavior high...
Antimalarial drugs are a powerful tool for malaria control and elimination. Artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) can reduce transmission when widely distributed in campaign setting. Modelling mass antimalarial campaigns elucidate how to most effectively deploy drug-based interventions quantitatively compare the effects of cure, prophylaxis, transmission-blocking suppressing parasite prevalence. A previously established agent-based model that includes innate adaptive immunity was...
Many questions remain about P. falciparum within-host dynamics, immunity, and transmission–issues that may affect public health campaign planning. These gaps in knowledge concern the distribution of durations malaria infections, determination peak parasitemia during acute infection, relationships among gametocytes immune responses infectiousness to mosquitoes, effect antigenic structure on reinfection outcomes. The present model intra-host dynamics implements detailed representations...
Efficient planning and evaluation of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention programmes requires an understanding what sustains the epidemic, including mechanism by which HIV transmission keeps pace with ageing infected population. Recently, more detailed population models have been developed represent epidemic sufficient detail to characterize dynamics ongoing transmission. Here, we describe structure parameters such a model, called EMOD-HIV v. 0.7. We analyse chains that allow...
Elimination of malaria can only be achieved through removal all vectors or complete depletion the infectious reservoir in humans. Mechanistic models built to synthesize diverse observations from field collected under a variety conditions and subsequently used query great detail.The EMOD model transmission was calibrated prevalence, incidence, asexual parasite density, gametocyte infection duration, infectiousness data nine study sites. The characterized by age detectability with diagnostics...
Reactive case detection could be a powerful tool in malaria elimination, as it selectively targets transmission pockets. However, field operations have yet to demonstrate under which conditions, if any, reactive is best poised push region elimination. This study uses mathematical modelling assess how baseline intensity and local interconnectedness affect the impact of activities context other possible intervention packages. Communities Southern Province, Zambia, where elimination are...
Mass campaigns with antimalarial drugs are potentially a powerful tool for local elimination of malaria, yet current diagnostic technologies insufficiently sensitive to identify all individuals who harbor infections. At the same time, overtreatment uninfected increases risk accelerating emergence drug resistance and losing community acceptance. Local heterogeneity in transmission intensity may allow campaign strategies that respond index cases successfully target subpatent infections while...