A5007134530- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Global Health Care Issues
- Global Public Health Policies and Epidemiology
- Global Maternal and Child Health
- Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Data-Driven Disease Surveillance
- COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
- Health disparities and outcomes
- Influenza Virus Research Studies
- Zoonotic diseases and public health
- Virology and Viral Diseases
- Trauma and Emergency Care Studies
- Injury Epidemiology and Prevention
- Healthcare Systems and Reforms
- HIV/AIDS Impact and Responses
- HIV/AIDS Research and Interventions
- Health and Conflict Studies
- Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- HIV Research and Treatment
- Adolescent Sexual and Reproductive Health
- Health Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life
McGill University
2020-2025
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
2018-2019
University of Washington
2018-2019
Seattle University
2017
Understanding potential trajectories in health and drivers of is crucial to guiding long-term investments policy implementation. Past work on forecasting has provided an incomplete landscape future scenarios, highlighting a need for more robust modelling platform from which options can be assessed. This study provides novel approach life expectancy, all-cause mortality cause death forecasts -and alternative scenarios-for 250 causes 2016 2040 195 countries territories.We modelled groups...
HIV/AIDS is a leading cause of disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa. Existing evidence has demonstrated that there substantial local variation the prevalence HIV; however, subnational not been investigated at high spatial resolution across continent. Here we explore within-country 5 × 5-km Africa by estimating HIV among adults (aged 15–49 years) and corresponding number people living with from 2000 to 2017. Our analysis reveals throughout differences both direction rate change between 2017,...
Zika, a viral disease transmitted to humans by Aedes mosquitoes, emerged in the Americas 2015, causing large-scale epidemics. Colombia alone reported over 72,000 Zika cases between 2015 and 2016. Using national surveillance data from 1121 municipalities 70 weeks, we identified sociodemographic environmental factors associated with Zika's emergence, re-emergence, persistence, transmission intensity Colombia. We fitted zero-state Markov-switching model under Bayesian framework, assuming...
Spatio-temporal counts of infectious disease cases often contain an excess zeros. With existing zero inflated count models applied to such data it is difficult quantify space-time heterogeneity in the effects spread between areas. Also, methods do not allow for separate dynamics affect reemergence and persistence disease. As alternative, we develop a new zero-state coupled Markov switching negative binomial model, under which switches periods presence absence each area through series...
Abstract Forecasting the number of daily COVID‐19 cases is critical in short‐term planning hospital and other public resources. One potentially important piece information for forecasting mobile device location data that measure amount time an individual spends at home. Endemic–epidemic (EE) series models are recently proposed autoregressive where current mean case count modelled as a weighted average past counts multiplied by rate, plus endemic component. We extend EE to include...
Despite multivariate spatio-temporal counts often containing many zeroes, zero-inflated multinomial models for space-time data have not been considered. We are interested in comparing the transmission dynamics of several co-circulating infectious diseases across space and time where some can be absent long periods. first assume there is a baseline disease that well-established always present region. The other switch between periods presence absence each area through series coupled Markov...
Abstract Background The Canadian epidemics of COVID-19 exhibit distinct early trajectories, with Québec bearing a very high initial burden. semaine de relâche , or March break, took place two weeks earlier in as compared to the rest Canada. This event may have played role spread severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We aimed examine case importation transmission dynamics SARS-CoV-2 Québec. Methods Using detailed surveillance data, we developed and calibrated...
ABSTRACT Zika, a viral disease transmitted to humans by the bite of infected Aedes mosquitoes, emerged in Americas 2015, causing large-scale epidemics. Colombia alone reported 72,031 Zika cases between 31/May/2015 and 01/October/2016. We used national surveillance data from 1,121 municipalities over 70 epidemiological weeks identify sociodemographic environmental factors associated with Zika’s emergence, re-emergence, persistence, transmission intensity Colombia. fitted zero-state...
Recurrent COVID-19 outbreaks have placed immense strain on the hospital system in Quebec. We develop a Bayesian three-state coupled Markov switching model to analyze across Quebec based admissions 30 largest hospitals. Within each catchment area, we assume existence of three states for disease: absence, new state meant account many zeroes some smaller areas, endemic and outbreak. Then disease switches between area through series nonhomogeneous hidden chains. Unlike previous approaches,...
In epidemiological studies, zero-inflated and hurdle models are commonly used to handle excess zeros in reported infectious disease cases. However, they can not model the persistence (from presence presence) reemergence absence of a separately. Covariates sometimes have different effects on disease. Recently, Markov switching negative binomial was proposed accommodate this issue. We present as competitor that approach, often also alternatives for accommodating zeroes. begin comparison by...