A5005409744- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
- Zoonotic diseases and public health
- Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
- SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Tuberculosis Research and Epidemiology
- Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Mental Health Research Topics
- Evolutionary Game Theory and Cooperation
- Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Influenza Virus Research Studies
- Data-Driven Disease Surveillance
- Evolution and Genetic Dynamics
- SARS-CoV-2 detection and testing
- COVID-19 diagnosis using AI
- Disaster Management and Resilience
- Complex Network Analysis Techniques
- Misinformation and Its Impacts
- Hepatitis Viruses Studies and Epidemiology
- Biosensors and Analytical Detection
- Herpesvirus Infections and Treatments
- Diffusion and Search Dynamics
- Primate Behavior and Ecology
- Turtle Biology and Conservation
University of Virginia
2021-2025
Biocom
2021-2025
Arizona State University
2015-2020
Brown University
2019
Levin Group (United States)
2016
University of Hawaii–West Oahu
2016
Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública
2016
Background In the weeks following first imported case of Ebola in U. S. on September 29, 2014, coverage very limited outbreak dominated news media, a manner quite disproportionate to actual threat national public health; by end October, there were only four laboratory confirmed cases entire nation. Public interest these events was high, as reflected millions Ebola-related Internet searches and tweets performed month case. Use trending has been proposed past for real-time prediction outbreaks...
Mobility restrictions - travel advisories, trade and bans, border closures and, in extreme cases, area quarantines or cordons sanitaires are among the most widely used measures to control infectious diseases. Restrictions of this kind were important response epidemics SARS (2003), H1N1 influenza (2009), Ebola (2014). However, they do not always work as expected. The imposition a cordon sanitaire 2014 West African outbreak, for example, is argued have led higher-than-expected number cases...
Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as mask wearing can be effective in mitigating the spread of infectious diseases. Therefore, understanding behavioral dynamics NPIs is critical for characterizing disease spread. Nevertheless, standard infection models tend to focus only on states, overlooking "beneficial contagions," e.g., compliance with NPIs. In this work, we investigate concurrent and mask-wearing behavior over multiplex networks. Our proposed framework captures both competing...
Understanding individual decisions in a world where communications and information move instantly via cell phones the internet, contributes to development implementation of policies aimed at stopping or ameliorating spread diseases. In this manuscript, role official social network perturbations generated by public health officials slow down stop disease outbreak are studied over distinct classes static networks. The dynamics stochastic nature with individuals (nodes) being assigned fixed...
Indoor superspreading events are significant drivers of transmission respiratory diseases. In this work, we study the dynamics airborne in consecutive meetings individuals enclosed spaces. contrast to usual pairwise-interaction models infection where effective contacts transmit disease, focus on group interactions with distinct health states meet simultaneously. Specifically, disease is transmitted by infected exhaling droplets (contributing viral load closed space) and susceptible ones...
The multiple immunity responses exhibited in the population and co-circulating variants documented during pandemics show a high potential to generate diverse long-term epidemiological scenarios. Transmission variability, immune uncertainties human behaviour are crucial features for predictability implementation of effective mitigation strategies. Nonetheless, effects individual health incentives on disease dynamics not well understood. We use behavioural-immuno-epidemiological model study...
In November 2015, El Salvador reported their first case of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection, an event followed by explosive outbreak that generated over 6000 suspected cases in a period two months. National agencies began implementing control measures included vector and recommending increased use repellents. Further, response to the alarming growing number microcephaly Brazil, importance avoiding pregnancies for years was stressed. this paper, we explore role mobility within communities...
The transmission dynamics of Tuberculosis (TB) involve complex epidemiological and socio-economical interactions between individuals living in highly distinct regional conditions. level exogenous reinfection first time infection rates within high-incidence settings may influence the impact control programs on TB prevalence. that effective population size distribution individuals’ residence times different patches have are studied using selected scenarios where risk is defined by estimated or...
Infections produced by non-symptomatic (pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic) individuals have been identified as major drivers of COVID-19 transmission. Non-symptomatic individuals, unaware the infection risk they pose to others, may perceive themselves-and be perceived others-as not presenting a infection. Yet, many epidemiological models currently in use do include behavioral component, address potential consequences misperception. To study impact adaptations risk, we mathematical model that...
Mexico has experienced one of the highest COVID-19 mortality rates in world. A delayed implementation social distancing interventions late March 2020 and a phased reopening country June facilitated sustained disease transmission region. In this study we systematically generate compare 30-day ahead forecasts using previously validated growth models based on trends from Institute for Health Metrics Evaluation City near real-time. Moreover, estimate reproduction numbers SARS-CoV-2 methods that...
Abstract Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) constitute the front-line responses against epidemics. Yet, interdependence of control measures and individual microeconomics, beliefs, perceptions health incentives, is not well understood. Epidemics complex adaptive systems where behavioral decisions drive are driven by, among other things, risk infection. To study impact heterogeneous on epidemic burden, we formulate a two risk-groups mathematical model that incorporates by perceptions. Our...
Disease surveillance systems provide early warnings of disease outbreaks before they become public health emergencies. However, pandemics containment would be challenging due to the complex immunity landscape created by multiple variants. Genomic is critical for detecting novel variants with diverse characteristics and importation/emergence times. Yet, a systematic study incorporating genomic monitoring, situation assessment, intervention strategies lacking in literature. We formulate an...
Background: Mobility restrictions - trade and travel bans, border closures and, in extreme cases, area quarantines or cordons sanitaires- are among the most widely used measures to control infectious diseases. Restrictions of this kind were important response epidemics SARS (2003), H1N1 influenza (2009), Ebola (2014). However, they do not always work as expected.Methods: To determine when mobility reduce size an epidemic, we use a model disease transmission within between economically...
Since twenty-first-century problems stretch across disciplines, they require interdisciplinary approaches.As Steve Strogatz [1] observes: Cancer will not be cured by biologists working alone.Its solution a melding of both great discoveries 1953 [the Fermi-Pasta-Ulam computer experiment and the Watson Crick discovery chemical structure DNA].Many cancers, perhaps most them, involve derangement biochemical networks that choreograph activity thousands genes proteins.As Fermi his colleagues taught us,
In November 2015, El Salvador reported their first case of Zika virus (Zv) leading to an explosive outbreak that in just two months had over 6000 suspected cases. Many communities along with national agencies initiated the process implement control measures ranged from vector and use repellents suggestion avoiding pregnancies for years, latter one, response growing number microcephaly cases Brazil. our study, we explore impact short term mobility between idealized interconnected where...
Abstract Mexico has experienced one of the highest COVID-19 death rates in world. A delayed response towards implementation social distancing interventions until late March 2020 and a phased reopening country June facilitated sustained disease transmission region. Here, we systematically generate compare 30-day ahead forecasts using previously validated growth models based on mortality trends from Institute for Health Metrics Evaluation City near real-time. Moreover, estimate reproduction...
Public health interventions reduce infection risk, while imposing significant costs on both individuals and the society. Interventions can also lead to behavioral changes, as weigh cost benefits of avoiding infection. Aggregate epidemiological models typically focus population-level consequences interventions, often not incorporating mechanisms driving adaptations associated with compliance. In this study, we use a coupled behavior-epidemic model analyze detrimental responses driven by...
A bstract Risk-driven behavior provides a feedback mechanism through which individuals both shape and are collectively affected by an epidemic. We introduce general flexible compartmental model to study the effect of heterogeneity in population with regards risk tolerance. The interplay between epidemiology leads rich set possible epidemic dynamics. Depending on behavioral composition population, we find that increasing tolerance can either increase or decrease size. multiple waves infection...
Risk-driven behavior provides a feedback mechanism through which individuals both shape and are collectively affected by an epidemic. We introduce general flexible compartmental model to study the effect of heterogeneity in population with regards risk tolerance. The interplay between epidemiology leads rich set possible epidemic dynamics. Depending on behavioral composition population, we find that increasing tolerance can either increase or decrease size. multiple waves infection arise due...
The recurrence of epidemic waves has been a hallmark infectious disease outbreaks. Repeated surges in infections pose significant challenges to public health systems, yet the mechanisms that drive these remain insufficiently understood. Most prior models attribute exogenous factors, such as transmission seasonality, viral mutations, or implementation interventions. We show can emerge autonomously from feedback loop between infection dynamics and human behavior. Our results are based on...