A5061597107- Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling
- Insurance and Financial Risk Management
- Bayesian Methods and Mixture Models
- Stochastic processes and financial applications
- Statistical Distribution Estimation and Applications
- Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Market Dynamics and Volatility
- Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
- Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
- Global Health Care Issues
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Genetics, Bioinformatics, and Biomedical Research
- Multi-Criteria Decision Making
- Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference
- FinTech, Crowdfunding, Digital Finance
- Advanced Statistical Methods and Models
- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Intimate Partner and Family Violence
- Biomedical and Engineering Education
- Banking stability, regulation, efficiency
- Access Control and Trust
- Ethics in Clinical Research
- Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
- Statistical Methods and Inference
University of Nairobi
2014-2024
Kenya School of Government
2024
Université de Parakou
2024
Actua
2022
Kisii University
2022
Pan African University Institute for Basic Sciences, Technology and Innovation
2019
Since the outbreak of pandemic COVID-19 (Corona virus), many countries have continued to suffer economically leading massive losses in terms trillions dollars globally trade loses. In reaction this effect, world taken emergency measures ensure that impact does not lead huge economic and financial implications rapid recession. Africa, where deal with global recession citizens especially through fiscal monetary policies, which includes Kenya. addition, social statues change instantaneously...
Since the inception of novel Corona Virus Disease-19 in December China, spread has been massive leading World Health Organization to declare it a world pandemic. While epicenter COVID-19 was Wuhan city China mainland, Italy affected most due high number recorded deaths as at 21st April, 2020 same time USA recording highest virus reported cases. In addition, experienced many developing African countries including Kenya. The Kenyan government need make necessary plans for those who have tested...
Abstract The emergence and dynamic prevalence of genetic disorders infectious diseases with mutations pose significant challenges for public health interventions. This study investigated the parameter estimation approach application state-space Markov modeling these conditions. Using extensive simulations, model demonstrated robust performance, biases mean-squared errors decreasing as sample size increased. Applying to COVID-19 data revealed distinct temporal patterns each variant,...
<ns3:p>The increase in health research sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has led to a high demand for biostatisticians develop study designs, contribute and apply statistical methods data analyses. Initiatives exist address the dearth capacity lack of local SSA projects. The Sub-Saharan African Consortium Advanced Biostatistics (SSACAB) by institutions was initiated improve biostatistical according needs identified institutions, through collaborative masters doctoral training biostatistics. SACCAB...
Precise recognition of a time series path is important to policy makers, statisticians, economists, traders, hedgers and speculators alike. The correct also key ingredient in pricing models. This study uses daily futures prices crude oil other distillate fuels. paper considers the statistical properties energy spot investigates trends that underlie price dynamics order gain further insights into possible nuances discovery market dynamics. family ARMA-GARCH models was explored. depict varying...
Many actuarial science researchers on stochastic modeling and forecasting of systematic mortality risk use Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD) Model (2006) due to its ability consider the cohort effects. A three-factor model has three parameters that describe trends over time when dealing with future behaviors. This study aims predict model, kt(2) by applying Recurrent Neural Networks within a Short-Term Long Memory (an artificial LSTM architecture) compared traditional statistical ARIMA (p,d,q) models....
For effective interactions to take place in a social network, trust is important. We model of agents using the peer reputation ratings network that forms real valued matrix. Singular value decomposition discounts estimate levels as subjective probability future expectations based on current ratings. Reputation and are closely related singular can matrix network. an ideal technique error elimination when estimating from estimation optimal at discounting 20 %.
Diversification of assets by an investor offers reduced exposure to risk compared investing in a single asset. A multi-asset option gives this advantage as its payout depends on the overall performance several underlying assets. This study uses information-based model derive approximate price for European call options. The asset is derived using risk-neutral pricing approach, and case notion comonotonicity. numerical illustration looked at validate theoretical results show accuracy model....
<ns3:p>The increase in health research sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has generated large amounts of data and led to a high demand for biostatisticians analyse these locally quickly. Donor-funded initiatives exist address the dearth statistical capacity, but few have been by African institutions. The Sub-Saharan Consortium Advanced Biostatistics (SSACAB) aims improve biostatistical capacity according needs identified institutions, through (collaborative) masters doctoral training biostatistics. We...
The classical mortality models such as the Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD), Lee-Carter (LC), Linear Regression (LR) are used to model Systematic Mortality Risk (SMR) for many developed countries populations actuarial product valuations. This research study aims at incorporating Bühlmann credibility approach (BCA) improve SMR fit sub-Saharan African like Kenya. Since Kenyan population does not exhibit Gaussian properties in modeling error terms, we proposed using Normal Inverse distribution these...
Nairobi Securities Exchange 20 Index Share (NSE-20 Index/ An Traded Fund) has been one of the investment avenues for both Kenyans and foreign investors look whenever they want to make sound investments decisions in market. However, assumption that daily securities index prices follows a normal distribution disputed by data several cases. This means new statistical distributions must be used discern NSE-20 thus enabling prudent financial avoid loses. In this research paper, we will model...
Low income earners have volatile incomes and most financial providers shun this group of borrowers even though they are motivated in managing the limited resources through savings investments as a means to lower fluctuations their income. Peer groupings low can assist pooling improve risk mitigation process members act like social collateral credit lending. The study used Kenya Financial Diaries data from households analyze understand quality levels scores peer groups versus individuals...
Determination of aggregate risk as a function dependence amongst random variables is vital step in modelling any insurance or financial portfolio.The standard independence assumption simplifies calculations but has the downside overstating understating risk.Compared to comonotonicity, negative received little attention due difficulty extending its bivariate results into multivariate cases despite natural minimization properties and potential create internal hedging.In this paper, we...
In the literature several methods have been developed to model ordinal data while considering their natural ordering. However, this study sought compare two possible link functions for multilevel regression using males’ ratings of police forces in Uganda as an outcome variable. Variables were obtained from UNGBS database (Uganda National Governance Baseline Survey). The highest proportion males rated good (40.9%) followed by fair (24.96%), poor (19.1%), and lastly very (15.1%). ordered...
Globally, many men are victims of intimate partner violence but not seek help to stop the violence. This study sought identify factors associated with help-seeking behavior male (IPV) in Uganda. was done using ordinary and mixed-effects regression models logit, probit, complementary log-log link functions secondary data from 2016 Uganda Demographic Health Survey. Most males (70.6 percent) never after experiencing Marital status, listening radio, physically hurt partner, experienced physical...
Accurate and timely diagnosis of respiratory ailments like pneumonia, tuberculosis (TB), COVID-19 is pivotal for effective patient care public health interventions. Deep learning algorithms have emerged as potent tools in medical image classification, offering promise automated screening. This study presents a deep learning-based approach categorizing chest X-ray images into three classes: tuberculosis, COVID-19. Utilizing convolutional neural networks (CNNs) the primary architecture, owing...
The unprecedented availability of increasingly complex, voluminous, and multi-dimensional data as well the emergence science an evolving field provide ideal opportunities to address multi-faceted public health challenges faced by low middle income countries (LMIC), especially those in sub-Saharan Africa. However, there is a severe lack well-trained scientists home-grown educational programs enable context-specific training. human capacity resources for analysis dire need use modern...
This study conducts a comprehensive analysis exploring the relationship between key macroeconomic indicators and unemployment rate, alongside evaluating predictive accuracy of modern regression models. The correlation examines association rate percentages five variables: real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, gross public debt as percentage GDP, population size, government revenue expenditure GDP. results highlight significant correlations, particularly strong positive rates (% GDP)...
The duration of the first occurrence intimate partner violence within an relationship varies from one victim to another due several factors. However, few studies have explored issue, especially among male victims and yet this is key designing preventive mechanisms. Therefore study sought identify factors associated with timing experience by victims. used secondary data 2016 Uganda Demographic Health Survey. Data analysis was done using Pearson’s chisquare test multilevel ordered logistic...