A5080594162- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Climate variability and models
- Fish Ecology and Management Studies
- Crop Yield and Soil Fertility
- Agricultural Economics and Policy
- Plant responses to elevated CO2
- Rice Cultivation and Yield Improvement
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Freshwater macroinvertebrate diversity and ecology
- Fish Biology and Ecology Studies
- Aquatic Invertebrate Ecology and Behavior
- Marine and fisheries research
- Aquaculture Nutrition and Growth
- Agricultural risk and resilience
- Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Plant and animal studies
- Climate change and permafrost
- Invertebrate Taxonomy and Ecology
University of Chicago
2014-2024
Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
2022
Columbia University
2013-2021
Goddard Institute for Space Studies
2016-2020
Argonne National Laboratory
2010-2020
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
2019
Earth Island Institute
2016-2017
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
2015
University of Illinois Chicago
2015
World Bank Group
2014
Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact global temperature increase on production these crops is therefore critical to maintaining food supply, but different studies have yielded results. Here, we investigated impacts yields four by compiling extensive published results from analytical methods: grid-based local point-based models, statistical regressions, field-warming experiments. Results methods consistently showed negative crop...
Significance Agriculture is arguably the sector most affected by climate change, but assessments differ and are thus difficult to compare. We provide a globally consistent, protocol-based, multimodel change assessment for major crops with explicit characterization of uncertainty. Results agreement indicate strong negative effects from especially at higher levels warming low latitudes where developing countries concentrated. Simulations that consider nitrogen stress result in much more severe...
We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models six gridded crop models. These are produced as part the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination Agricultural Improvement driven by outputs general circulation run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 Fifth Coupled Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, rice involve losses 400-1,400 Pcal (8-24% present-day total) when...
Abstract Recent changes in the seasonal timing (phenology) of familiar biological events have been one most conspicuous signs climate change. However, lack a standardized approach to analysing change has hampered assessment consistency such among different taxa and trophic levels across freshwater, terrestrial marine environments. We present 25 532 rates phenological for 726 UK terrestrial, freshwater taxa. The majority spring summer advanced, more rapidly than previously documented. Such is...
Significance Plausible estimates of climate change impacts on agriculture require integrated use climate, crop, and economic models. We investigate the contribution models to uncertainty in this impact chain. In nine included, direction management intensity, area, consumption, international trade responses harmonized crop yield shocks from are similar. However, magnitudes differ significantly. The differences depend model structure, particular specification endogenous effects, land change,...
SUMMARY (1) Previous studies on rates of gastric evacuation and food consumption are briefly reviewed criticized. The truly quantitative show that the rate is usually exponential related to water temperature by an or power-law function. These relationships have been ignored in most previous methods used estimate daily for fish field. (2) Two new proposed both assume exponential. assumed be constant within interval between sampling first method, decrease with time second method which also...
Abstract. In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of Parties (COP) to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited Intergovernmental Panel (IPCC) provide a special report in 2018 impacts global warming 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related greenhouse gas emission pathways. Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, IPCC panel accepted invitation. Here we describe response devised within Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) tailored,...
Институт рыбного
Abstract High temperatures are detrimental to crop yields and could lead global warming-driven reductions in agricultural productivity. To assess future threats, the majority of studies used process-based models, but their ability represent effects high temperature has been questioned. Here we show that an ensemble nine models reproduces observed average responses US maize, soybean wheat yields. Each day >30 °C diminishes maize by up 6% under rainfed conditions. Declines irrigated areas,...
Abstract Climate, groundwater extraction, and surface water flows have complex nonlinear relationships with level in agricultural regions. To better understand the relative importance of each driver predict change, we develop a new ensemble modeling framework based on spectral analysis, machine learning, uncertainty as an alternative to computationally expensive physical models. We apply evaluate this approach context two aquifer systems supporting production United States: High Plains (HPA)...
The many factors affecting the growth and feeding of fishes have been reviewed by Brown (1957), Ivlev (1961), Paloheimo & Dickie (1965, 1966a, b) Phillips (1969). These reviews include relevant work on salmonids only important addition is sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka Walbaum) Brett, Shelbourn Shoop (1969) Brett (1971). present paper one a series dealing with in brown trout (Salmo trutta L.). From results previous work, it now possible to estimate rate time for gastric evacuation...
The total energy content of the food intake a fish is either lost in faeces and excretory products or used for metabolism, growth any reproductive released during period concerned. Winberg (1956) first proposed that about 15% 3% products. He suggested slightly higher value 20% probably represents losses waste this has been by many workers. Few workers have measured salmonids. Brocksen, Davis & Warren (1968) obtained 14'5%o cutthroat trout Salmo clarki (Richardson) at 10? C, Brocksen Bugge...
Abstract. Crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop yields at the global scale, but so far there is no general framework on how assess model performance. Here we evaluate simulation results of 14 gridded modeling groups that have contributed historic yield simulations for maize, wheat, rice and soybean Global Gridded Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) Agricultural Improvement Project (AgMIP). Simulation compared reference data global, national grid cell scales performance with respect...
Abstract. We present protocols and input data for Phase 1 of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison, a project Agricultural Intercomparison Improvement Project (AgMIP). The includes global simulations yields, phenologies, many land-surface fluxes using 12–15 modeling groups crops, climate forcing sets, scenarios over historical period from 1948 to 2012. primary outcomes include (1) detailed comparison major differences similarities among models commonly used large-scale impact...
Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, well such capture impacts extreme conditions. Using 2003 European heat wave drought as a historical analogue comparable events future, find that majority underestimate extremeness sectors agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems,...