A5063525723- Climate variability and models
- Aquatic Ecosystems and Phytoplankton Dynamics
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Aquatic Invertebrate Ecology and Behavior
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
- Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Fish Ecology and Management Studies
- Water resources management and optimization
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Coastal and Marine Dynamics
- Birth, Development, and Health
- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Soil and Water Nutrient Dynamics
- Viral Infections and Vectors
- Hydrocarbon exploration and reservoir analysis
- Freshwater macroinvertebrate diversity and ecology
- Climate change and permafrost
- Climate Change Communication and Perception
Vrije Universiteit Brussel
2021-2025
Environment and Climate Change Canada
2024-2025
Abstract One of the most important physical characteristics driving lifecycle events in lakes is stratification. Already subtle variations timing stratification onset and break-up (phenology) are known to have major ecological effects, mainly by determining availability light, nutrients, carbon oxygen organisms. Despite its importance, historic future global changes phenology unknown. Here, we used a lake-climate model ensemble long-term observational data, investigate lake across Northern...
Abstract. Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure resulting biogeochemistry order plan for likely impacts. Previous studies of impacts climate change on have often relied a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections relatively small number lakes. As result, our understanding effects fragmentary, based scattered using different data...
Abstract West Nile virus (WNV) is an emerging mosquito-borne pathogen in Europe where it represents a new public health threat. While climate change has been cited as potential driver of its spatial expansion on the continent, formal evaluation this causal relationship lacking. Here, we investigate extent to which WNV can be attributed while accounting for other direct human influences such land-use and population changes. To end, trained ecological niche models predict risk local...
Lakes are significant emitters of methane to the atmosphere, and thus important components global budget. Methane is typically produced in lake sediments, with rate production being strongly temperature dependent. Local regional studies highlight risk increasing under future climate change, but a estimate not currently available. Here, we project changes bottom temperatures sediment rates from 1901 2099. By end 21st century, projected increase globally, by an average 0.86-2.60°C...
Abstract Several previous studies have highlighted the irrigation‐induced impacts on global and regional water cycle, energy budget, near‐surface climate. While land models are widely used to address this question, implementations of irrigation in these vary complexity. Here, we expand representation Community Land Model enable six different methods. We find that using a combination methods, including default, sprinkler, flood paddy techniques performs best as determined by evaluating...
Abstract. Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure resulting biogeochemistry order plan for likely impacts. Previous studies of impacts climate change on have often relied a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections relatively small number lakes. As result, our understanding effects fragmentary, based scattered using different data...
<title>Abstract</title> Current emissions trends are likely to deplete a 1.5°C consistent carbon budget soon after the year 2030, resulting in period of overshoot. To navigate responsibilities for and during this we contrast ‘fair’ allocations remaining with projected until net-zero. We term measure ‘net-zero debt’, or expected overconsumption allocation party achieves net-zero emissions. The debt’ thus provides an estimate today party’s responsibility climate overshoot under certain...
Climate extremes such as heatwaves, river floods, droughts, crop failures, including aspects of wildfires and tropical cyclones, are increasingly attributable to anthropogenic climate change. Yet how this translates into unprecedented levels extreme event exposure in one&#8217;s lifetime remains unclear. Here we show that, neglecting adaptation, many today&#8217;s youth will experience during their lifetimes. For the events above, share people facing is projected at least double from...
Current emissions trends will likely deplete a 1.5 °C consistent carbon budget around the year 2030, resulting in at least temporary exceedance, or overshoot. To clarify responsibilities for this we consider “net-zero debt,” forward-looking measure of extent to which party is expected breach its “fair share” remaining by time it achieves net-zero emissions. We apply all vetted mitigation scenarios assessed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report and two that model...
Abstract If climate services are to lead effective use of information in decision-making enable the transition a climate-smart, climate-ready world, then question trust products and is paramount importance. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) has been actively grappling with how build such trust: provision demonstrably independent assessments quality products, which was deemed an important element trust-building processes. C3S provides access essential variables (ECVs) from multiple...
Abstract Statistical and dynamical modeling techniques are used to downscale global climate model (GCM) outputs practical resolutions for local- or regional-scale applications. Current do not incorporate the effects of land-use land-cover changes, although research has shown that such changes can substantially affect locally. Here, we explore a new downscaling technique uses tile-level GCM provided under phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The method, tile (LTD), spatially...
Abstract Land-use and land-cover changes (hereafter simply “land use”) alter climates biogeophysically by affecting surface fluxes of energy water. Yet, near-surface temperature responses to land use across observational versus model-based studies spatial-temporal scales can be inconsistent. Here we assess the prevalence historical signal daily maximum temperatures averaged over warmest month year ( t LU ) using regularized optimal fingerprinting for detection attribution. We observations...
Heatwaves are increasing in frequency, intensity, and duration, represent the category of extreme event that is most easily attributable to anthropogenic warming. Yet how spatiotemporal patterns attribution outcomes link population dynamics demographic still poorly understood. Here we investigate whether children young people already being affected by a disproportionately greater number heat extremes, especially Global South. Using observations, reanalysis, simulations temperature changes...
In climate change attribution, unprecedented magnitudes of extreme events can be defined on the basis thresholds in pre-industrial distributions event magnitudes. This notion levels impacts has been extended toward lifetime exposure to by evaluating frequency. Unprecedented is assessed comparing average under different scenarios an upper percentile a climate. Here we combine simulations forcing with country-level demography datasets estimate fraction global population experiencing events....
Water scarcity is a growing concern in many regions worldwide, as demand for clean water increases and supply becomes increasingly uncertain under climate change. Already today, more than 4 billion people experience at least one month per year (Mekonnen Hoekstra, 2016). Developing socio-economic conditions population increase demands, while change leads to changes freshwater availability. Most studies quantify discrete time windows, with fixed signals (e.g., 30 years or long-term averages)....
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Is lake ice disappearing from the Earth system?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Luke Grant&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;, Zeli Tan&lt;sup&gt;7&lt;/sup&gt;, Marjorie Perroud&lt;sup&gt;8&lt;/sup&gt;, Victor Stepanenko&lt;sup&gt;9&lt;/sup&gt;, Bram Droppers&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt;, Annette B.G....
&lt;p&gt;In addition to their changes carbon pools, land use and cover (LULCC) alter climates biogeophysically through effects on surface fluxes for energy water. These resulting climatic in temperature manifest differently across study type (observational or model-based) spatial-temporal scales depending the predominance of albedo, evaporative fraction roughness as causal factors. With growing future demand land-exhaustive activities address societal needs interest mitigation...