A5079294462- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Fire effects on ecosystems
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Lightning and Electromagnetic Phenomena
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Wind and Air Flow Studies
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics
- Forest ecology and management
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Tree-ring climate responses
- Landslides and related hazards
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics
- Geological and Geophysical Studies
- Climate change and permafrost
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
The University of Melbourne
2022-2025
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science
2023-2025
Bureau of Meteorology
2015-2024
UNSW Sydney
2023
Federation University
2022
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
2022
Natural Hazards Research Australia
2009-2012
Collaboration for Australian Weather and Climate Research
2010-2012
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
2009
The University of Adelaide
2001-2007
Abstract The 2019/20 Black Summer bushfire disaster in southeast Australia was unprecedented: the extensive area of forest burnt, radiative power fires, and extraordinary number fires that developed into extreme pyroconvective events were all unmatched historical record. Australia’s hottest driest year on record, 2019, characterised by exceptionally dry fuel loads primed landscape to burn when exposed dangerous fire weather ignition. combination climate variability long-term trends generated...
Abstract Fire activity in Australia is strongly affected by high inter-annual climate variability and extremes. Through changes the climate, anthropogenic change has potential to alter fire dynamics. Here we compile satellite (19 32 years) ground-based (90 burned area datasets, weather observations, simulated fuel loads for Australian forests. Burned Australia’s forests shows a linear positive annual trend but an exponential increase during autumn winter. The mean number of years since last...
Outputs from new state-of-the-art climate models under the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) promise improvement and enhancement of change projections information for Australia. Here we focus on three key aspects CMIP6: what is in these models, how available CMIP6 evaluate compared to CMIP5, their future Australian CMIP5 focussing highest emissions scenario. The ensemble has several features relevance policymakers others, example, integrated matrix socioeconomic...
Abstract Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) wildfires cause devastation in many regions globally. Given that fire‐atmosphere coupling is associated with pyroCbs, future changes coincident high index values of atmospheric instability and dryness (C‐Haines) near‐surface fire weather are assessed for southeastern Australia using a regional climate projection ensemble. We show observed pyroCb events occur predominantly on forested, rugged landscapes during extreme C‐Haines conditions, but over wide range...
Extreme wildfires have recently caused disastrous impacts in Australia and other regions of the world, including events with strong convective processes their plumes (i.e., pyroconvection). Dangerous wildfire such as these could potentially be influenced by anthropogenic climate change, however, there are large knowledge gaps on how might change future. The McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) is used to represent near-surface weather conditions Continuous Haines index (CH) here lower...
Abstract Assessing the role of anthropogenic warming from temporally inhomogeneous historical data in presence large natural variability is difficult and has caused conflicting conclusions on detection attribution tropical cyclone (TC) trends. Here, using a reconstructed long-term proxy annual TC numbers together with high-resolution climate model experiments, we show robust declining trends number TCs at global regional scales during twentieth century. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis...
Abstract This study offers an overview of the low-frequency (i.e., monthly to seasonal) evolution, dynamics, predictability, and surface impacts a rare Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric warming that occurred in austral spring 2019. Between late August mid-September 2019, circumpolar westerly jet weakened rapidly, Antarctic temperatures rose dramatically. The deceleration vortex at 10 hPa was as drastic first-ever-observed major sudden SH during 2002, while mean over course 2019 broke...
A multi-scenario, multi-model ensemble of simulations from regional climate models is outlined to provide the core data source for a set projections and change service. subset realisations CMIP6 Global Climate Models (GCMs) are selected downscaling by Regional (RCMs) under 'sparse matrix' framework using CORDEX guidelines Shared Socio-economic Pathways that feature low emissions (SSP1-2.6) high (SSP3-7.0). The excludes poor performing models, with performance assessed climatology over large...
Climate change impact studies commonly use models (such as hydrological or crop models) forced with corrected climate input data from global models. A range of downscaling and bias correction methods have been developed to increase the spatial resolution remove systematic biases in model outputs be applied before Many focused on evaluating such approaches for variables they aim correct. However, due nonlinear error propagation there can large remaining outputs, even when ingesting forcings....
Abstract Long-term variations in fire weather conditions are examined throughout Australia from gridded daily data 1950 to 2016. The McArthur forest danger index is used represent this 67-yr period, calculated on the basis of a analysis observations over time period. This complementary approach previous studies (e.g., those based primarily model output, reanalysis, or individual station locations), providing spatially continuous and long-term observations-based dataset expand research...
Abstract Phenomena such as cyclones, fronts and thunderstorms can cause extreme weather in various regions throughout the world. Although these phenomena have been examined numerous studies, they not all systematically combination with each other, including relation to precipitation winds Consequently, combined influence of represents a substantial gap current understanding causes events. Here we present systematic analysis represented by seven different types storm combinations. Our results...
Abstract. The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System is the mostly widely used fire danger rating system in world. We have developed a global database of daily FWI calculations, beginning 1980, called Global WEather Database (GFWED) gridded to spatial resolution 0.5° latitude by 2/3° longitude. Input weather data were obtained from NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), two different estimates precipitation rain gauges over land. Drought Code...
Abstract A number of devastating wildfires occurred in southeast Australia on 7 February 2009, colloquially known as Black Saturday. Atmospheric responses to this extreme fire event are investigated here with a focus convective processes associated activity (i.e., pyroconvection). We examine six different complexes Saturday, finding three clearly distinct pyrocumulonimbus storms, the largest which reached heights 15 km that day and generated hundreds lightning strokes. The first stroke was...
Natural hazards such as extreme wind, rainfall and ocean waves can have severe impacts on built natural environments, contributing to the occurrence of disastrous events in some cases. These are often caused by weather systems cyclones, fronts thunderstorms. Previous studies typically examine one type hazard and/or system, with recent years starting focus compound hazards. Here we systematically (extreme precipitation, wind gusts, waves) from a system typology perspective. Cyclones...
Abstract Most of the rainfall in southern Australia is associated with cyclones, cold fronts, and thunderstorms, cases when these weather systems co-occur are particularly likely to cause extreme rainfall. Rainfall declines some parts during cool half year recent decades have previously been attributed decreases from fronts and/or while thunderstorm-related has observed increase, warm year. However, co-occurrence systems, cyclones or can be very important for areas, heavy rainfall, changes...
A number of different methodologies are developed for examining the sensitivities an index. These applied to examine characteristics Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) and McArthur Forest Danger (FFDI) using 8 years gridded data throughout Australia. Percentile changes in input conditions show that indices similar each other they both most sensitive wind speed, then secondly relative humidity thirdly temperature. On a finer scale, combination relationship between their partial derivatives...
Abstract Thunderstorms are convective systems characterised by the occurrence of lightning. Lightning and thunderstorm activity has been increasingly studied in recent years relation to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) various other large-scale modes atmospheric oceanic variability. Large-scale variability can sometimes be predictable several months advance, suggesting potential for seasonal forecasting lightning regions throughout world. To investigate this possibility, world’s tropical...
Abstract A systematic analysis of the main weather types influencing southern Australian rainfall is presented for period 1979–2015. This incorporates two multi-method datasets cold fronts and low pressure systems, which indicate more robust lows as distinguished from weaker less impactful events that are often indicated only by a single method. The front system then combined with dataset environmental conditions associated thunderstorms, well warm high systems. results demonstrate these...
Spatio-temporal variations in fire weather conditions are presented based on various data sets, with consistent approaches applied to help enable seamless services over different time scales. Recent research this is shown here, covering climate change projections for future years throughout century, predictions at multi-week seasonal lead times and historical records observations. Climate extreme metrics results individual seasons. A prediction system demonstrated here as a new capability...
Australia's water management and infrastructure decision making needs detailed high-resolution climate forecasts projections to inform the process of water-sensitive making, raise awareness understand future risks, mitigate, adapt, capitalise on impacts a changing in industries ranging from agriculture fire risk. Until now no nationally consistent information hydrological change has existed preventing standardised comparable impact assessments across multiple spatial temporal scales,...