A5009850093- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Data-Driven Disease Surveillance
- Viral Infections and Vectors
- Malaria Research and Control
- SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
- Viral gastroenteritis research and epidemiology
- Viral Infections and Immunology Research
- Complex Network Analysis Techniques
- COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
- Infrastructure Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis
- SARS-CoV-2 detection and testing
- COVID-19 and healthcare impacts
- Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- Influenza Virus Research Studies
- Plant Virus Research Studies
- Public Health Policies and Education
- Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference
- Agricultural risk and resilience
- Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence
- Complex Systems and Decision Making
- Markov Chains and Monte Carlo Methods
- Dengue and Mosquito Control Research
- Gaussian Processes and Bayesian Inference
University of Florida
2015-2024
The University of Texas at Austin
2012-2015
Advanced Bioscience Laboratories (United States)
2007
Background Large Phase III trials across Asia and Latin America have recently demonstrated the efficacy of a recombinant, live-attenuated dengue vaccine (Dengvaxia) over first 25 mo following vaccination. Subsequent data collected in longer-term follow-up phase, however, raised concerns about potential increase hospitalization risk subsequent infections, particular among young, dengue-naïve vaccinees. We here report predictions from eight independent modelling groups on long-term safety,...
Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify state critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams make months ahead SARS-CoV-2 burden, totaling nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections. Here, we find SMH performance varied widely as a...
Response to Zika virus (ZIKV) invasion in Brazil lagged a year from its estimated February 2014 introduction, and was triggered by the occurrence of severe congenital malformations. Dengue (DENV) chikungunya (CHIKV) invasions tend show similar response lags. We analyzed geo-coded symptomatic case reports city Merida, Mexico, with goal assessing utility historical DENV data infer CHIKV ZIKV introduction propagation. About 42% 40,028 cases reported during 2008–2015 clustered 27% city, these...
Policymakers must make management decisions despite incomplete knowledge and conflicting model projections. Little guidance exists for the rapid, representative, unbiased collection of policy-relevant scientific input from independent modeling teams. Integrating approaches decision analysis, expert judgment, aggregation, we convened multiple teams to evaluate COVID-19 reopening strategies a mid-sized United States county early in pandemic. Projections seventeen distinct models were...
The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic drove a widespread, often uncoordinated effort by research groups to develop mathematical models SARS-CoV-2 study its spread and inform control efforts. urgent demand for insight at outset meant early were typically either simple or repurposed from existing agendas. Our group predominantly uses agent-based (ABMs) fine-scale intervention scenarios. These high-resolution are large, complex, require extensive empirical data, more detailed than strictly...
Background Historically, mosquito control programs successfully helped contain malaria and yellow fever, but recent efforts have been unable to halt the spread of dengue, chikungunya, or Zika, all transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. Using a dengue transmission model results from indoor residual spraying (IRS) field experiments, we investigated how IRS-like campaign scenarios could effectively in an endemic setting. Methods findings In our model, found that high levels household coverage (75%...
Abstract Policymakers make decisions about COVID-19 management in the face of considerable uncertainty. We convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate reopening strategies for a mid-sized county United States, novel process designed fully express scientific uncertainty while reducing linguistic and cognitive biases. For scenarios considered, consensus from 17 distinct models was that second outbreak will occur within 6 months reopening, unless schools non-essential workplaces remain closed....
Dengue vaccines will soon provide a new tool for reducing dengue disease, but the effectiveness of widespread vaccination campaigns has not yet been determined. We developed an agent-based model representing movement and transmission dynamics among people mosquitoes in Yucatán, Mexico, simulated various vaccine scenarios to evaluate under those conditions. This includes detailed spatial representation Yucatán population, including location 1.8 million between 375,000 households 100,000...
Viruses transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya, have expanding ranges seem unabated current vector control programs. Effective of these pathogens likely requires integrated approaches. We evaluated dengue management options in an endemic setting that combine novel vaccination using agent-based model for Yucatán, Mexico, fit to 37 y data. Our intervention models are informed targeted indoor residual spraying (TIRS) experiments; trial outcomes World Health...
Contact network models have become increasingly common in epidemiology, but we lack a flexible programming framework for the generation and analysis of epidemiological contact networks simulation disease transmission through such networks. Here present EpiFire, an applications interface graphical user implemented C++, which includes fast efficient library generating, analyzing manipulating Network-based percolation chain-binomial simulations susceptible-infected-recovered transmission, as...
Background: Multiple waves of transmission during infectious disease epidemics represent a major public health challenge, but the ecological and behavioral drivers epidemic resurgence are poorly understood. In theory, community structure—aggregation into highly intraconnected loosely interconnected social groups—within human populations may lead to punctuated outbreaks as diseases progress from one next. However, this explanation has been largely overlooked in favor temporal shifts...
Abstract Background Current urban vector control strategies have failed to contain dengue epidemics and prevent the global expansion of Aedes -borne viruses (ABVs: dengue, chikungunya, Zika). Part challenge in sustaining effective ABV emerges from paucity evidence regarding epidemiological impact any method. A strategy for which there is limited targeted indoor residual spraying (TIRS). TIRS a modification classic malaria that accounts aegypti resting behavior by applying insecticides on...
We evaluate approaches to vaccine distribution using an agent-based model of human activity and COVID-19 transmission calibrated detailed trends in cases, hospitalizations, deaths, seroprevalence, breakthrough infections Florida, USA. compare the incremental effectiveness for four different strategies at levels supply, starting late 2020 through early 2022. Our analysis indicates that best strategy reduce severe outcomes would be actively target high disease-risk individuals. This was true...
Abstract Our ability to forecast epidemics more than a few weeks into the future is constrained by complexity of disease systems, our limited measure current state an epidemic, and uncertainties in how human action will affect transmission. Realistic longer-term projections (spanning weeks) may, however, be possible under defined scenarios that specify critical epidemic drivers, with additional benefit such can used anticipate comparative effect control measures. Since December 2020, U.S....
Abstract Comparison of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case numbers over time and between locations is complicated by limits to virological testing confirm severe acute respiratory syndrome 2 infection. The proportion tested individuals who have positive (test-positive proportion, TPP) can potentially be used inform trends in incidence. We propose a model for population experiencing an epidemic COVID-19 derive expression TPP terms well-defined parameters related presence other pathogens...
The World Health Organization (WHO) currently recommends pre-screening for past infection prior to administration of the only licensed dengue vaccine, CYD-TDV. Using a threshold modelling analysis, we identify settings where this guidance prohibits positive net-benefits, and are thus unfavourable. Generally, however, our model shows test-then-vaccinate strategies can improve CYD-TDV economic viability: effective testing reduces unnecessary vaccination costs while increasing health benefits....
In this report, we use a detailed simulation model to assess and project the COVID-19 epidemic in Florida. The is data-driven, stochastic, discrete-time, agent based with an explicit representation of people places. Using model, find that omicron variant wave Florida likely cause many more infections than occurred during delta wave. Due testing limitations often mild symptoms, however, anticipate will be underreported compared delta. We reported cases continue grow significantly peak early...
Abstract Background Evolutionary analysis provides a formal framework for comparative of genomic and other data. In evolutionary analysis, observed data are treated as the terminal states characters that have evolved (via transitions between states) along branches tree. The NEXUS standard Maddison, et al. (1997; Syst. Biol . 46: 590–621) portable, expressive flexible text format representing character-state trees. However, due to its complexity, is not well supported by software easily...
We evaluate approaches to vaccine distribution using an agent-based model of human activity and COVID-19 transmission calibrated detailed trends in cases, hospitalizations, deaths, seroprevalence, breakthrough infections Florida, USA. compare the incremental effectiveness for four different strategies at levels availability, reflecting income settings’ historical distribution. Our analysis indicates that best strategy reduce severe outcomes is actively target high disease-risk individuals....
Decision-makers impose COVID-19 mitigations based on public health indicators such as reported cases, which are sensitive to fluctuations in supply and demand for diagnostic testing, hospital admissions, lag infections by up two weeks. Imposing too early has unnecessary economic costs while imposing late leads uncontrolled epidemics with cases deaths. Sentinel surveillance of recently-symptomatic individuals outpatient testing sites may overcome biases lags conventional indicators, but the...
Infectious disease outbreaks present unique challenges to study designs for vaccine evaluation. Test-negative design (TND) studies have previously been used estimate effectiveness and proposed Ebola virus (EVD) vaccines. However, there are key differences in how cases controls recruited during pandemics of novel pathogens, whcih implications the reliability estimates using this design.
As polio-endemic countries move towards elimination, infrequent first infections and incomplete surveillance make it difficult to determine when the virus has been eliminated from population. Eichner Dietz [American Journal of Epidemiology, 143, 8 (1996)] proposed a model estimate probability silent polio circulation depending upon last paralytic case was detected. Using same kind stochastic they did, we additionally waning immunity in context isolated, small, unvaccinated populations. We...
Epidemic data are often difficult to interpret due inconsistent detection and reporting. As these critically relied upon inform policy epidemic projections, understanding reporting trends is similarly important. Early of the COVID-19 pandemic in particular complicated, changing diagnostic testing protocols. An internal audit by State Florida, USA found numerous specific examples irregularities case death reports. Using case, hospitalization, from first year we present approaches that can be...
The World Health Organisation currently recommends pre-screening for past infection prior to administration of the only licensed dengue vaccine, CYD-TDV. Using a bounding analysis, we show that despite additional testing costs, this approach can improve economic viability CYD-TDV: effective reduces unnecessary vaccination costs while increasing health benefit vaccine recipients. When is cheap enough, those trends outweigh screening and make test-then-vaccinate strategies net-beneficial in...