A5070280727- Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Viral Infections and Vectors
- Zoonotic diseases and public health
- Malaria Research and Control
- Data-Driven Disease Surveillance
- Evolution and Genetic Dynamics
- Influenza Virus Research Studies
- Dengue and Mosquito Control Research
- Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
- Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Vector-Borne Animal Diseases
- Plant Virus Research Studies
- Animal Disease Management and Epidemiology
- Fire effects on ecosystems
- Vibrio bacteria research studies
- Salmonella and Campylobacter epidemiology
- Global Maternal and Child Health
- COVID-19 and Mental Health
- Insect symbiosis and bacterial influences
- Wheat and Barley Genetics and Pathology
- Healthcare Operations and Scheduling Optimization
- Food Security and Health in Diverse Populations
- Suicide and Self-Harm Studies
Los Alamos National Laboratory
2017-2025
New Mexico Consortium
2017-2018
Oregon State University
2010-2017
Tulane University
2012-2017
Osnabrück University
2017
Texas Tech University
2017
University of California, Santa Barbara
2017
Estimates of the geographical distribution Culex mosquitoes in Americas have been limited to state and provincial levels United States Canada based on data from 1980s. Since these estimates were made, there many more documented observations new methods developed for species modeling. Moreover, mosquito distributions are affected by environmental conditions, which changed since This calls updated understand risk emerging re-emerging mosquito-borne diseases.We used contemporary data, drivers,...
Abstract Background Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are important contributors to the global burden of infectious due their epidemic potential, which can result in significant population and economic impacts. Oropouche fever, caused by virus (OROV), is an understudied zoonotic VBD febrile illness reported Central South America. The potential areas likely OROV spread remain unexplored, limiting capacities improve epidemiological surveillance. Methods To better understand capacity for OROV, we...
Mosquitoes in the genus Culex are primary vectors US for West Nile virus (WNV) and other arboviruses. Climatic drivers such as temperature have differential effects on species-specific changes mosquito range, distribution, abundance, posing challenges population modeling, disease forecasting, subsequent public health decisions. Understanding these differences underlying biological dynamics is crucial face of climate change.We collected empirical data thermal response immature development...
We present two ordinary differential equation models for Rift Valley fever (RVF) transmission in cattle and mosquitoes. extend existing vector-borne diseases to include an asymptomatic host class vertical vectors. define the basic reproductive number, 0, analyse existence stability of equilibrium points. compute sensitivity indices 0 a reactivity index (that measures epidemicity) parameters baseline wet dry season values. is most sensitive mosquito biting death rates. The rate infectivity...
As South and Central American countries prepare for increased birth defects from Zika virus outbreaks plan mitigation strategies to minimize ongoing future outbreaks, understanding important characteristics of how they vary across regions is a challenging problem. We developed mathematical model the 2015/2016 outbreak dynamics in Colombia, El Salvador, Suriname. fit publicly available data provided by Pan Health Organization, using Approximate Bayesian Computation estimate parameter...
Policymakers must make management decisions despite incomplete knowledge and conflicting model projections. Little guidance exists for the rapid, representative, unbiased collection of policy-relevant scientific input from independent modeling teams. Integrating approaches decision analysis, expert judgment, aggregation, we convened multiple teams to evaluate COVID-19 reopening strategies a mid-sized United States county early in pandemic. Projections seventeen distinct models were...
Abstract We present an ensemble transfer learning method to predict suicide from Veterans Affairs (VA) electronic medical records (EMR). A diverse set of base models was trained a binary outcome constructed reported suicide, attempt, and overdose diagnoses with varying choices study design prediction methodology. Each model used twenty cross-sectional 190 longitudinal variables observed in eight time intervals covering 7.5 years prior the prediction. Ensembles seven were created fine-tuned...
The recent spread of mosquito-transmitted viruses and associated disease to the Americas motivates a new, data-driven evaluation risk in temperate population centers. Temperate regions are generally expected pose low for significant mosquito-borne disease; however, Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) across densely populated urban areas has established new landscape risk. We use model informed by field data assess conditions likely facilitate local transmission chikungunya Zika from an...
We develop and analyse an ordinary differential equation model to investigate the transmission dynamics of releasing Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes establish endemic infection in a population wild uninfected mosquitoes. Wolbachia is genus endosymbiotic bacteria that can infect reduce their ability transmit some viral mosquito-transmitted diseases, including dengue fever, chikungunya, Zika. Although bacterium transmitted vertically from infected mothers offspring, it be difficult mosquito...
Abstract Policymakers make decisions about COVID-19 management in the face of considerable uncertainty. We convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate reopening strategies for a mid-sized county United States, novel process designed fully express scientific uncertainty while reducing linguistic and cognitive biases. For scenarios considered, consensus from 17 distinct models was that second outbreak will occur within 6 months reopening, unless schools non-essential workplaces remain closed....
As temperatures change worldwide, the pattern and competency of disease vectors will change, altering global distribution both burden infectious risk emergence those diseases into new regions. To evaluate potential summer dengue outbreaks triggered by infected travelers under various climate scenarios, we develop an SEIR-type model, run numerical simulations, conduct sensitivity analyses a range temperature profiles. Our model extends existing theoretical frameworks for studying dynamics...
West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in humans United States. Since introduction 1999, incidence levels have stabilized many regions, allowing for analysis climate conditions that shape spatial structure incidence.
Climate and land use change may cause the geographical range of mosquitoes to expand, shift, or contract, ultimately changing what communities are at risk for contracting mosquito-borne diseases. Across North South America, from Aedes Culex genera vectors numerous diseases, including chikungunya, dengue, various equine encephalitis viruses, Saint Louis virus, West Nile yellow fever Zika virus. The goal our study was project distributions important mosquito across America in response climate...
Maize lethal necrosis (MLN) has emerged as a serious threat to food security in sub-Saharan Africa. MLN is caused by coinfection with two viruses, chlorotic mottle virus and potyvirus, often Sugarcane mosaic virus. To better understand the dynamics of provide insight into disease management, we modeled spread viruses causing within between growing seasons. The model allows for transmission via vectors, soil, seed, well exogenous sources infection. Following parameterization, predict how...
We have identified environmental and demographic variables, available in January, that predict the relative magnitude spatial distribution of West Nile virus (WNV) for following summer. The yearly WNV incidence humans United States (US) varied wildly past decade. Mosquito control measures are expensive having better estimates expected size a future outbreak can help planning mitigation efforts costs. is spread primarily between mosquitoes birds; an incidental host. Previous demonstrated...
If pathogen species, strains, or clones do not interact, intuition suggests the proportion of coinfected hosts should be product individual prevalences. Independence consequently underpins wide range methods for detecting interactions from cross-sectional survey data. However, very simplest epidemiological models challenge underlying assumption statistical independence. Even if pathogens death causes net prevalences to decrease simultaneously. The induced positive correlation between means...
Abstract Probabilistic forecasts play an indispensable role in answering questions about the spread of newly emerged pathogens. However, uncertainties epidemiology emerging pathogens can make it difficult to choose among alternative model structures and assumptions. To assess potential for affect their spread, we evaluated performance 16 forecasting models context 2015-2016 Zika epidemic Colombia. Each featured a different combination assumptions human mobility, spatiotemporal variation...
Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an emerging zoonotic mosquito-borne infectious disease that has been identified as a risk for spread to other continents and can cause mass livestock mortality. In equatorial Africa, outbreaks of RVF are associated with high rainfall, when vector populations at their highest. It is, however, unclear how virus persists during the inter-epidemic periods between seasons. Understanding persistence well role vectors hosts paramount creating effective management...
We develop a mathematical model for transmission of West Nile virus (WNV) that incorporates resident and migratory host avian populations mosquito vector population. provide detailed analysis the model's basic reproductive number demonstrate how exposed infected, but not infectious, state bird population can be approximated by reduced model. use to investigate interplay WNV in both hosts. The parameters correspond American Crow (Corvus brachyrhynchos), competent with high death rate due...
Abstract The many respiratory viruses that cause influenza-like illness (ILI) are reported and tracked as one entity, defined by the CDC a group of symptoms include fever 100 degrees Fahrenheit cough and/or sore throat. In United States alone, ILI impacts 9-49 million people every year. While tracking single clinical syndrome is informative in respects, underlying differ their parameters outbreak properties. Most existing models treat either virus or whole. However, there need for capable...
The complexity and variability of biological data has promoted the increased use machine learning methods to understand processes predict outcomes. These same features complicate reliable, reproducible, interpretable, responsible such methods, resulting in questionable relevance derived. Here we systematically explore challenges associated with applying using a well- characterized vitro experimental system. We evaluated factors that vary while classifers: (1) type biochemical signature...
Mosquito-borne diseases cause significant public health burden and are widely re-emerging or emerging. Understanding, predicting, mitigating the spread of mosquito-borne disease in diverse populations geographies ongoing modelling challenges. We propose a hybrid network-patch model for pathogens that accounts individual movement through mosquito habitats, extending capabilities existing agent-based models (ABMs) to include vector-borne diseases. The ABM coupled with differential equations...