We developed a computational tool to assess the risks of novel coronavirus outbreaks outside China. estimate dependence risk major outbreak in country from imported cases on key parameters such as: (i) evolution cumulative number mainland China closed areas; (ii) connectivity destination with China, including baseline travel frequencies, effect restrictions, and efficacy entry screening at destination; (iii) control measures (expressed by local reproduction R loc ). found that countries low...

The quarantine of people suspected being exposed to an infectious agent is one the most basic public health measure that has historically been used combat spread communicable diseases in human communities. This study presents a new deterministic model for assessing population-level impact individuals disease on 2014–2015 outbreaks Ebola viral disease. It assumed imperfect (i.e., can acquire infection during quarantine). In absence quarantine, shown exhibit global dynamics with respect...

COVID-19 epidemic has been suppressed in Hungary due to timely non-pharmaceutical interventions, prompting a considerable reduction the number of contacts and transmission virus. This strategy was effective preventing growth reducing incidence low levels. In this report, we present first epidemiological statistical analysis early phase outbreak Hungary. Then, establish an age-structured compartmental model explore alternative post-lockdown scenarios. We incorporate various factors, such as...

The 2014 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa was the largest and longest ever reported since first identification of this disease. We propose a compartmental model for EVD dynamics, including virus transmission community, at hospitals, funerals. Using time-dependent parameters, we incorporate increasing intensity intervention efforts. Fitting system to early phase outbreak, estimate basic reproduction number as 1.44. derive final size relation which allows us forecast total...

Abstract We developed a computational tool to assess the risks of novel coronavirus outbreaks outside China. estimate dependence risk major outbreak in country from imported cases on key parameters such as: (i) evolution cumulative number mainland China closed areas; (ii) connectivity destination with China, including baseline travel frequencies, effect restrictions, and efficacy entry screening at destination; (iii) control measures (expressed by local reproduction R loc ). found that...

In this paper, we formulate and study a compartmental model for Lassa fever transmission dynamics considering human-to-human, rodent-to-human the vertical of virus in rodents. To incorporate impact periodicity weather on spread Lassa, introduce non-autonomous with time-dependent parameters rodent birth rate carrying capacity environment respect to We basic reproduction number show that it can be used as threshold parameter concerning global dynamics. It also shown disease-free periodic...

Measles is a highly contagious viral disease that can lead to serious complications, including death, particularly in young children. In this study, we developed mathematical model incorporates seasonal transmission parameter examine the measles dynamics. We define basic reproduction number (R0) and show its utility as threshold for global dynamics existence of periodic solutions. The was applied outbreak occurred Pakistan from 2019 2021 provided good fit observed data. Our estimate found be...

Nipah virus, which originated in South-East Asia is a bat-borne virus causing infection humans. This emerging infectious disease has become one of the most alarming threats to public health due its periodic outbreaks and extremely high mortality rate. We establish study novel SIRS model describe dynamics transmission, considering human-to-human as well zoonotic transmission from bats pigs loss immunity. determine basic reproduction number can be obtained maximum three threshold parameters...

Abstract We establish a compartmental model to study the transmission of Zika virus disease including spread through sexual contacts and role asymptomatic carriers. To incorporate impact seasonality weather on Zika, we apply nonautonomous with time-dependent mosquito birth rate biting rate, which allows us explain differing outcome epidemic in different countries South America: using Latin Hypercube Sampling for fitting, were able reproduce outcomes various countries. Sensitivity analysis...

We establish a compartmental model for Zika virus disease transmission, with particular attention paid to microcephaly, the main threat of disease. To this end, we consider separate microcephaly-related compartments affected infants, as well role asymptomatic carriers, influence seasonality and transmission through sexual contact. determine basic reproduction number corresponding time-dependent time-constant study dependence value on mosquito-related parameters. In addition, demonstrate...

Abstract COVID-19 epidemic has been suppressed in Hungary due to timely non-pharmaceutical interventions, prompting a huge reduction the number of contacts and transmission virus. This strategy was effective preventing growth reducing incidence low levels. In this report, we present first epidemiological statistical analysis early phase outbreak Hungary. Then, establish an age-structured compartmental model explore alternative post-lockdown scenarios. We incorporate various factors, such as...

Abstract We present a compartmental population model for the spread of Zika virus disease including sexual and vectorial transmission as well asymptomatic carriers. apply non-autonomous with time-dependent mosquito birth, death biting rates to integrate impact periodicity weather on Zika. define basic reproduction number $${\mathscr {R}}_{0}$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><mml:msub><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn>0</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math> spectral radius linear...

Lassa haemorrhagic fever is listed in WHO's Blueprint priority list of diseases and pathogens prioritized for research development, affecting several hundreds thousands people each year. spread via infected Natal multimammate mice also through human-to-human contacts it a particular threat to pregnant women. Despite its importance, relatively few mathematical models have been established modelling transmission up now. We establish study new compartmental model including asymptomatic...

We develop a periodic compartmental population model for the spread of malaria, dividing human into two classes: non-immune and semi-immune. The effect seasonal changes in weather on malaria transmission is considered by applying non-autonomous where mosquito birth, death biting rates are time-dependent. show that global dynamics system determined basic reproduction number, which we define as spectral radius linear integral operator. For values number less than unity, disease-free solution...

We establish a new four-dimensional system of differential equations for honeybee colony to simultaneously model the spread Varroa mites among bees and virus transmitted by mites. The bee population is divided forager hive bees, while latter are further into three compartments: susceptibles, those infested non-infectious vectors infectious vectors. has four potential equilibria. identify reproduction numbers that determine global asymptotic stability possible By using Dulac's criterion,...

During several epidemics, transmission from deceased people significantly contributed to disease spread, but mathematical analysis of this has not been seen in the literature numerously. Transmission Ebola during traditional burials was most well-known example; however, there are other diseases, such as hepatitis, plague or Nipah virus, that can potentially be transmitted victims. This is especially true case serious epidemics when healthcare overwhelmed and operative capacity health sector...

We prove the global asymptotic stability of disease-free and endemic equilibrium for general SIR SIRS models with nonlinear incidence. Instead popular Volterra-type Lyapunov functions, we use method Dulac which allows us to extend previous results a wider class systems, including (density-dependent) removal terms as well. show that this is useful in cases cannot be covered by such bistable situations. completely describe attractor even scenario backward bifurcation, when multiple equilibria coexist.

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic forced authorities worldwide to implement moderate severe restrictions in order slow down or suppress the spread of disease. It has been observed several countries that a significant number people fled city region just before strict lockdown measures were implemented. This behavior carries risk seeding large infections all at once regions with otherwise small cases. In this work, we investigate effect fleeing on size an epidemic outbreak under lockdown, and...

Abstract We assess the potential consequences of upcoming SARS-CoV-2 waves caused by Omicron variant. Our results suggest that even in those regions where Delta variant is controlled at moment a combination non-pharmaceutical interventions and population immunity, significant wave can be expected. stratify according to prior immunity status, characterize possible outbreaks depending on level pre-existing immune evasion capability Omicron. point out two countries having similar effective...

In this paper, we study the global stability of a multistrain SIS model with superinfection. We present an iterative procedure to calculate sequence reproduction numbers, and prove that it completely determines dynamics system. show for any number strains different infectivities, stable coexistence subset is possible, characterize all scenarios. As example, apply our method three-strain model.