A shoreline change model incorporating both long‐ and short‐term evolution is integrated into a data assimilation framework that uses sparse observations to generate an updated forecast of position estimate unobserved geophysical variables parameters. Application the algorithm provides quantitative statistical estimates combined model‐data uncertainty which crucial for developing hazard vulnerability assessments, evaluation prediction skill, identifying future collection needs. Significant...

Abstract Predictions of total water levels, the elevation combined tides, surge, and wave runup at shoreline, are necessary to provide guidance on potential coastal erosion flooding. Despite importance early warning systems for these hazards, existing real-time meteorological oceanographic forecast regional national scales, until now, have lacked estimates predict wave-driven overwash erosion. To address this need, we present an approach that includes in operational, national-scale modeling...

Abstract Large geomorphic changes to barrier islands may occur during inundation, when storm surge exceeds island elevation. Inundation occurs episodically and under energetic conditions that make quantitative observations difficult. We measured water levels on both sides of a in the northern Chandeleur Islands inundation by Hurricane Isaac. Wind patterns caused slope from bay side ocean for much storm. Modeled were very sensitive cross‐island slopes imposed water‐level boundary conditions....

Abstract We assess erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico by identifying interdependencies among oceanographic drivers probabilistically modeling resulting potential for coastal change. Wave water level observations are used to determine relationships between six hydrodynamic parameters that influence total therefore flooding, through consideration a wide range univariate distribution functions multivariate elliptical copulas. Using these relationships, we explore how...

Abstract Models of alongshore sediment transport during quiescent conditions, storm‐driven barrier island morphology, and poststorm dune recovery are integrated to assess decadal evolution under scenarios increased sea levels variability in storminess (intensity frequency). Model results indicate response regimes keeping pace, narrowing, flattening, deflation (narrowing flattening), aggradation. Under lower scenarios, more areas the experienced narrowing due collision. higher flattening...

The details of a large-scale laboratory experiment to study the turbulence generated by waves breaking on fixed barred beach are presented. data set includes comprehensive measurements free surface displacement and fluid velocity for one random regular wave case. Observations time-averaged turbulent kinetic energy per unit mass, , show that was greatest at bar crest did not fully dissipate prior reaching bed. This indicates that, even in sense, may be important near-bed processes. Onshore...

The rip current field resulting from the transformation of surface gravity waves over offshore submarine canyons is studied. Employing a wave model and wave‐induced circulation observed bathymetry we find that height variations associated with undulations in canyon contours cause cells alongshore spacing O(100m) even though nearshore displays no at these length scales. Further, predicted rips correspond to currents during Nearshore Canyon Experiment (NCEX). Motivated by results study...

Extreme storms drive change in coastal areas, including destruction of dune systems that protect populations. Data from four extreme impacting geomorphically diverse barrier islands are used to quantify elevation change. This is compared storm characteristics identify variability response, improve understanding morphological interactions, and provide estimates scaling parameters applicable for future prediction. Locations where total water levels did not exceed the crest experienced less...

Abstract Low‐lying barrier islands are ubiquitous features of the world's coastlines, and processes responsible for their formation, maintenance, destruction related to evolution smaller, superimposed including sand dunes, beach berms, sandbars. The island its interact with oceanographic forces (e.g., overwash) exchange sediment each other parts system. These interactions modulated by changes in storminess. An opportunity study these resulted from placement subsequent a 2 m high berm...

Abstract Dune erosion is an important aspect to consider when assessing coastal flood risk, as dune elevation loss makes the protected areas more susceptible flooding. However, most advanced numerical models are computationally expensive, which hinders their application in early‐warning systems. Based on a combination of probabilistic and process‐based modeling, we develop efficient statistical tool predict during storms. The analysis focuses Dauphin Island, AL, northern Gulf Mexico, where...

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Assessment of Hurricane-Induced Coastal Erosion Hazards compares measurements beach morphology with storm-induced total water levels to produce forecasts coastal change for storms impacting the Gulf Mexico and Atlantic coastlines United States. wave-induced level component (wave setup swash) is estimated by using modeled offshore wave height period measured slope (from dune toe shoreline) through empirical parameterization Stockdon others (2006)....

Resolving surf-zone bathymetry from high-resolution imagery typically involves measuring wave speeds and performing a physics-based inversion process using linear theory, or data assimilation techniques which combine multiple remotely sensed parameters with numerical models. In this work, we explored what types of coastal can be best utilized in 2-dimensional fully convolutional neural network to directly estimate nearshore optical expressions kinematics. Specifically, utilizing...

The dynamics of vorticity motions forced by wave groups incident on an alongshore‐uniform barred beach are analyzed. For both normally and obliquely groups, the potential enstrophy equations reveal that temporal variability group–forced vortices is directly linked to in incoming rather than bottom friction, as previously hypothesized. Analysis lifespan individual further shows group forcing responsible for not only variations but also their eventual demise. Vortices simulations persist 5 45...

The USGS National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project aims to identify areas the nation s coastline that are most vulnerable extreme storms and long-term shoreline change. These assessments require coastal elevation data across diverse geographic regions covering a time span many years. datasets published here, organized by individual field activity numbers (FANs), define dune crest, toe, at 10m intervals alongshore for each processed lidar survey. Beach width beach slope as...

Sandy beaches are important resources providing recreation, tourism, habitat, and coastal protection. They evolve over various time scales due to local winds, waves, storms, changes in sea level. A common method used monitor change sandy is measure the movement of shoreline time. Typically, rate estimated by fitting a linear regression through series positions. To best manage valuable within environment, accurate forecasts position needed. simple way estimate future extrapolate into future,...

Abstract Surface wave transformation and the resulting nearshore circulation along a section of coast with strong alongshore bathymetric gradients outside surf zone are modeled for consecutive 4 week time period. The hydrodynamics compared to in situ measurements waves currents collected during Nearshore Canyon Experiment indicate that entire range observed conditions, model performance is similar other studies this stretch coast. Strong height generate rip by remote sensing data predicted...

Web cameras are transforming coastal environmental monitoring. Improvements in camera technology and image processing capabilities, paired with decreases cost, enable widespread use of systems by researchers, managers first responders for a growing range monitoring applications. Applications related to transportation commerce, preparedness, risk reduction response, stewardship resources. While web seemingly ubiquitous, operators often follow unique installation procedures collect, store,...

Abstract Models of dune erosion depend on a set assumptions that dictate the predicted evolution dunes throughout duration storm. Lidar observations made before and after Hurricane Sandy at over 800 profiles with diverse elevations, widths, volumes are used to quantify specific model parameters including face slope, which controls avalanching, trajectory toe, migration. Wave‐impact models assume vertical toe along foreshore beach slope. Observations presented here show these not always valid...