Land-atmosphere interactions play an important role for hot temperature extremes in Europe. Dry soils may amplify such through feedbacks with evapotranspiration. While previous observational studies generally focused on the relationship between precipitation deficits and number of days, we investigate here influence soil moisture (SM) summer monthly maximum temperatures (TXx) using water balance model-based SM estimates (driven observations) observations. Generalized extreme value...

This paper examines the onset and cessation dates of rainy season over Ghana using rain gauge data from Meteorological Agency (GMet) period 1970–2012. The were determined cumulative curves number days rainfall amount. In addition, inter-annual variability for each climatic zone was assessed wavelet analysis. A clear distinction between characteristics length in various zones is discussed. forest coastal south had their second third dekads March. transition dekad March to April. Late onset,...

Climate change is projected to intensify drought conditions, which may increase the risk of diarrheal diseases in children. We constructed log-binomial generalized linear mixed models examine association between diarrhea risk, ascertained from global-scale nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys, drought, represented by standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, among children under five 51 low- middle-income countries (LMICs). Exposure 6-month mild or severe was...

A new database of the Entomological Inoculation Rate (EIR) was used to directly link risk infectious mosquito bites climate in Sub-Saharan Africa. Applying a statistical mixed model framework high-quality monthly EIR measurements collected from field campaigns Africa, we analyzed impact rainfall and temperature seasonality on determined important drivers malaria across varied settings region. We observed that seasonal transmission within window 15°C-40°C sustained if average well above 15°C...

Background As extreme events such as drought and flood are projected to increase in frequency intensity under climate change, there is still large missing evidence on how exposure potentially impacts mortality among young children. This study aimed investigate the association between risk of infant Africa, a region highly vulnerable change that bears heaviest share global burden. Methods findings In this cross-sectional study, we obtained data 34 African countries during 1992–2019 from...

Rotavirus is the leading cause of severe diarrhea among children under five worldwide, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Although vaccination best strategy to prevent rotavirus, obstacles poor vaccine effectiveness undermine its impact LMICs. This study aimed identify optimal rotavirus for Malawi by modeling cost-effectiveness, comparing current two-dose Rotarix schedule two alternative delivery schedules a next-generation neonatal (RV3-BB) from 2025-2034. The...

Dynamical malaria models can relate precipitation to the availability of vector breeding sites using simple surface hydrology. Here, a revised scheme is developed for VECTRI model, which evaluated alongside default two year simulation by HYDREMATS, 10 metre resolution, village-scale model that explicitly simulates individual ponds. Despite simplicity hydrology parametrization schemes, they reproduce sub-seasonal evolution fractional water coverage. Calibration parameters required simulate...

Abstract Rotarix® vaccine was introduced into the Malawi national immunization program in October 2012. We analyzed data on children <5 years old hospitalized with acute gastroenteritis from January 2012 to June 2022, and compared pre-vaccination 1997 2009. estimated coverage before, during, after COVID-19 pandemic using rotavirus-negative children. observed weekly number of rotavirus-associated (RVGE) cases by age predictions a previously developed mathematical model estimate overall...

Climate change is associated with more frequent and intense floods. Current research on the association between flood exposure diarrhea risk limited mainly to short-term event-specific analyses. Moreover, how prior drought or water, sanitation, hygiene (WaSH) practices influence this remains largely unknown.

Malaria is a major public health challenge in Ghana and adversely affects the productivity economy of country. Although malaria climate driven, there are limited studies linking variability disease transmission across various agro-ecological zones Ghana. We used VECTRI (vector-borne community model International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste) with new surface hydrology scheme to investigate spatio-temporal patterns over four The driven using temperature rainfall datasets obtained...

Abstract Background A major health burden in Cameroon is malaria, a disease that sensitive to climate, environment and socio-economic conditions, but whose precise relationship with these drivers still uncertain. An improved understanding of the between its drivers, ability represent relationships dynamic models, would allow such models contribute mitigation adaptation planning. This work collects surveys malaria parasite ratio entomological inoculation rate examines their temperature,...

Daily observations of potential mosquito developmental habitats in a suburb Kumasi central Ghana reveal strong variability their water persistence times, which ranged between 11 and 81 days. The the ponds was strongly tied with rainfall, location size puddles. A simple power-law relationship is found to fit average pond depth area well. prognostic balance model derived that describes temporal evolution depth, incorporating geometrical relation. Pond increases response while evaporation...

Rotavirus incidence remains relatively high in low-income countries (LICs) compared to high-income (HICs) after vaccine introduction. Ghana introduced monovalent rotavirus April 2012 and despite the coverage, performance has been modest developed countries. The predictors of low effectiveness LICs are poorly understood, drivers subnational heterogeneity impact unknown.We used mathematical models investigate variations children <5 years old Ghana. We fit surveillance case-control data from...

An energy budget model is developed to predict water temperature of typical mosquito larval developmental habitats. It assumes a homogeneous mixed column driven by empirically derived fluxes. The shows good agreement at both hourly and daily time scales with 10-min temporal resolution observed temperatures, monitored between June November 2013 within peri-urban area Kumasi, Ghana. There was close match larvae development times calculated using either the model-derived or temperatures. scheme...

Diarrhea remains a significant public health problem and poses considerable financial burden on Ghana's insurance scheme. In order to prioritize district-level hotspots of diarrhea incidence for effective targeted interventions, it is important understand the potential drivers spatiotemporal patterns diarrhea. We aimed identify heterogeneity in Ghana explore how meteorological socio-demographic factors influence patterns.We used monthly clinically diagnosed data between 2012 2018 obtained...

To quantify the potential impact of rotavirus vaccines and identify strategies to improve vaccine performance in Bangladesh, a better understanding drivers pre-vaccination patterns is required. We developed fitted mathematical models 23 years (1990–2012) weekly surveillance data from Dhaka with without incorporating long-term seasonal variation birth rate meteorological factors. performed external model validation using between 2013 2019 regions Matlab. The showed good agreement observed age...

Abstract Background Rotarix® rotavirus vaccine was introduced into the Malawi national immunization program in October 2012. We used a previously developed mathematical models to estimate overall effectiveness over 10-year period following introduction. Methods analyzed data on children &lt;5 years old hospitalized with acute gastroenteritis Blantyre, from January 2012 June 2022, compared pre-vaccination data. estimated coverage before, during, and after COVID-19 pandemic using...

ABSTRACT Background Available live-oral rotavirus vaccines are associated with low to moderate performance in low- and middle-income settings. There is limited evidence relating how the vaccine dosing schedule might be adjusted improve these Methods We used mathematical models fitted surveillance data for children &lt;5 years of age from three different hospitals Ghana (Korle-Bu Teaching Hospital Accra, Komfo Anokye Kumasi War Memorial Navrongo) project impact vaccination over a 10-year...

Non-disease-specific WHO-CHOICE unit costs are often used in cost and cost-effectiveness studies the absence of country-specific data. This study aims to compare reported disease corresponding estimates. We use generically defined "diarrhea" (including rotavirus diarrhea) pathogen-specific "respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)" as examples.

Abstract Background Among 35.5 million U.S. adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD), more than 557,000 are on dialysis incurred cost ranges from $97,373 to $102,206 per patient year. Acute injury (AKI) can lead an approximate ninefold increased risk for developing CKD. Significant knowledge gaps exist in understanding AKI CKD progression. We aimed develop and test a hybrid clustering algorithm investigate the clinical phenotypes driving Methods This retrospective observational study...

Abstract Rotavirus is the leading cause of severe diarrhea among children under five worldwide, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Although vaccination best strategy for preventing rotavirus infection, obstacles to poor vaccine effectiveness undermine its impact LMICs. This study aimed evaluate cost-effectiveness current two-dose Rotarix schedule Malawi compared two alternative delivery schedules a next-generation neonatal (RV3-BB) from 2025-2034. The strategies was...